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Contents
In brief
The country
- 3
38.98 million people on the UN's projection, which assumes return
- 4
More deaths than births, and an older population
Where the market is now
- 5
Under half of 2021, and rising since 2023
- 6
Ukraine is at 0.4 per 1,000, Poland at 14.8 and the EU at 4.9
- 7
India had 1,023 permits in the first half of 2026, Türkiye 662
- 8
Permits in seven working days, 3.73 million fewer aged 15 to 64
The outlook
- 9
8,690 new permits in 2026 under martial law, a scenario after it
- 10
Martial law decides the count; EU protection runs to March 2028
- 10
What could change this
Method and sources
- 11
How to read this report
- 11
Sources, photographs and flags
Cover: Kyiv at night, looking out over the lights of the city. Photograph by Oleksandr Plakhota, Pexels.
Ukraine is a small market for foreign hires today, and its Ministry of Economy puts the labour gap at about 4.5 million by 2030. In 2025 the State Employment Service issued or extended 9,582 permits to employ foreigners, 44 percent of the 21,780 of 2021; 7,083 of them were new. One event decides the outlook: the end of martial law with a published admission regime for reconstruction. While martial law holds we expect about 8,690 new permits in 2026, the pace of the first five months; for 2027 only the direction, rising against 2025, and after it the count held flat, a stated assumption. In the scenario where martial law ends, the count climbs to about 72,000 permits in the fifth year and 120,000 in the tenth, as the number of people aged 15 to 64 falls by 14 percent to 2041.
Permits to employ foreigners issued or extended in 2025, as reported
New permits in 2026 while martial law holds, between 5,370 and 13,200
Permits a year after martial law ends, year 10 of the scenario
Fewer people aged 15 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026, UN projection assuming return
38.98 million people on the UN's projection, which assumes return
The World Bank, on the UN's projection, puts Ukraine's population at 38,980,376 in mid 2025, 6,804,520 fewer than in 2015. The projection assumes that people return, while 4,363,130 citizens of Ukraine were still under EU protection in July 2026. The economy shrank 28.8 percent in 2022 and has grown every year since, yet output per head is 5,866 US dollars, 41 percent of the world average.
People in Ukraine in 2025, mid year, on the UN's projection
14.9 percent fewer than in 2015. People aged 65 and over were 19.0 percent of the population in 2025.
GDP in 2025, billion US dollars at current prices
At current prices and exchange rates.
GDP per head in 2025
41 percent of the world average of 14,406 US dollars in 2025.
Real growth in 2024
Against 2.9 percent across the world. From 2020 to 2024 the economy shrank 22.9 percent in all, while the world grew 13.2 percent (our estimate from the yearly rates).
People aged 15 and over in work, 2021
Against 56.7 percent across the world, on the ILO's estimate.
Martial law, EU protection
Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators (population, GDP, GDP per head, world growth, and the ILO estimate of employment); Eurostat, tec00115 (Ukraine's real growth); retrieved 27 September 2026. Population is the mid year estimate. Key dates: Presidential Decree 64/2022 of 24 February 2022 and Decree 596/2026 of 13 July 2026 (zakon.rada.gov.ua); Council Implementing Decision (EU) 2026/1912 of 30 July 2026 (eur-lex.europa.eu); retrieved 27 September 2026.
Poland
Ukraine
India
TürkiyeWhat this report answers
How many permits to employ foreigners has Ukraine issued each year since 2019?
9,582 permits issued or extended in 2025, 44 percent of the 21,780 of 2021; 7,083 of them were new. The count fell 71.2% in 2022 and has risen since 2023.
Which countries do the new hires come from, and which are growing?
In the first half of 2026 India had the most permits with 1,023, then Türkiye with 662, then Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Pakistan, whose counts are not published. Türkiye, the only origin with a yearly series, has risen each year since 2022, to 1,070 in 2025.
How does Ukraine compare with its neighbours per resident?
0.4 permits for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, half its 0.8 of 2021, against 14.8 first residence permits for work in Poland and 4.9 across the EU.
Which rules apply to employers who hire from abroad?
The employer applies to the State Employment Service, which decides within seven working days. A permit runs for the contract, at most two years for a hired employee, and costs 26,624 hryvnias for one to two years in 2026.
How is the working age population changing?
The World Bank's projection, which assumes return, gives 26,668,075 people aged 15 to 64 in 2026 and 22,935,858 in 2041: about 3,730,000 fewer, a fall of 14.0 percent.
How many permits to employ foreigners do we expect Ukraine to issue in 2026, and what comes after?
About 8,690 new permits in 2026 while martial law holds, between 5,370 and 13,200; for 2027 the direction is rising against 2025, then the count is held flat, a stated assumption. In the scenario where martial law ends, the count climbs to about 72,000 in the fifth year and 120,000 in the tenth.
The full report answers each question with its figures, charts and sources. Request the full report