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Contents
In brief

The country
- 3
10.6 million people, growth down to 17,819 in 2025
- 4
Births barely exceed deaths, and net migration fell to 12,540

Where the market is now
- 5
Permits have more than halved since 2019
- 6
Below Finland, Denmark and the EU rate
- 7
India leads, and Thailand's permits fell by a quarter
- 8
India and Thailand lead, both well below 2019
- 9
Higher salary floor, 334,000 more people aged 20 to 64

The outlook
- 10
About 9,960 permits in 2026, between 6,160 and 15,100
- 11
Shares of 2025 moved by the berry ban, and the drivers
- 11
What could change this

Method and sources
- 12
How to read this report
- 12
Sources, photographs and flags
Cover: Stockholm at dusk, Gamla stan seen from Södermalm. Photograph by Richardmaackphotography, CC BY 4.0, Wikimedia Commons.
Sweden issued 11,290 first residence permits for work in 2025, 11.4 percent fewer than in 2024 and 56 percent fewer than the 25,556 of 2019. That is 1.9 for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64, the lowest of the Nordic countries and well below the EU rate of 4.9. The rules are tightening: from 1 June 2026 a work permit needs 90 percent of the median salary, SEK 34,470 a month from 16 June 2026, and forest berry pickers no longer qualify. India was the largest origin with 2,110 permits, and the seven sourcing centres of Werklist received 2,769. We expect about 9,960 permits in 2026, between 6,160 and 15,100; for 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number, and the direction is falling. In 2031 the central line, on stated assumptions, gives 8,980 a year and the count held flat 11,200.
First residence permits for work issued in 2025, down 11.4 percent on 2024
Permits in 2026, between 6,160 and 15,100
Permits a year in 2031, central line; held flat 11,200
More people aged 20 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026
10.6 million people, growth down to 17,819 in 2025
Sweden has 10.61 million people, 858,174 more than in 2015. Births still exceed deaths, 97,491 against 92,212 in 2025, but net migration fell from 71,647 in 2019 to 12,540, so the population grew by 17,819, against 97,404 in 2019. Output per head is 135 percent of the EU average. On Eurostat's 2025 projection the number of people aged 20 to 64 rises 5.6 percent by 2041.

People living in Sweden on 1 January 2026
8.8 percent more than in 2015, and 2.3 percent of the EU's 452.0 million. People aged 65 and over were 20.8 percent of the population in 2025.
GDP in 2025, billion euro at current prices
3.2 percent of the EU economy.
GDP per head in 2025
135 percent of the EU average of 41,700 euro in 2025. Counting higher prices at home, 111 percent, down from 126 percent in 2015.
Real growth in 2025
Against 1.4 percent across the EU. Over 2021 to 2025 the economy grew 10.0 percent in all, the EU grew 13.7 percent (our estimate from the yearly rates).
People aged 20 to 64 in work, 2025
Against 76.1 percent across the EU.
Two changes to work permits in 2026
Sources: Eurostat, demo_gind (population, updated 21 July 2026), nama_10_gdp and nama_10_pc (GDP, updated 21 September 2026), tec00114 (price adjusted GDP per head), tec00115 (growth), lfsi_emp_a (employment), demo_pjanbroad (age). All retrieved 27 September 2026. Figures for 2025 GDP, GDP per head and growth are provisional. Key dates: Swedish Migration Agency, news of 1 June, 16 June and 13 July 2026, retrieved 28 September 2026.
Births barely exceed deaths, and net migration fell to 12,540
Births exceeded deaths by 5,279 in 2025, and net migration fell to 12,540
In 2025, 92,212 people died and 97,491 were born. Net migration added 12,540, so the population grew by 17,819.
Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (updated 21 July 2026), migr_imm1ctz and migr_emi1ctz (moves of a year or more), retrieved 27 September 2026. Net migration includes Eurostat's statistical adjustment. Not published: moves in and out for 2025.
About 11.15 million people by 2041 on Eurostat's projection
Observed to 2026, then Eurostat's 2025 projection in the lighter line: 11.15 million in 2041, with the migration tests at 10.76 and 11.54 million.
Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (observed, updated 21 July 2026) and proj_25np (EUROPOP2025 baseline and migration tests, updated 11 June 2026), retrieved 27 September 2026.
The share aged 65 and over rises to 24%
Source: Eurostat, demo_pjanbroad (2025) and proj_25np (2041), retrieved 27 September 2026.
600.4 billion euro in 2025, and the IMF forecast to 2031
Real growth under each year: observed to 2025 (Eurostat, tec00115), the IMF forecast after. Sources: Eurostat, nama_10_gdp (2025 provisional); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation: the other years are the 2025 value moved by the real growth rates; retrieved 27 September 2026.
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ReportsPermits have more than halved since 2019
Permits fell three years running, to 11,290 in 2025
Sweden issued 11,290 first residence permits for work in 2025, against 12,737 in 2024 and 25,556 in 2019.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
A first residence permit for work is the first permit of 3 months or more that a citizen of a country outside the EU receives to work in Sweden: a work permit, an EU Blue Card or another permit for work. Extensions and family members are not counted.
Six in ten permits issued in 2025 run for a year or more
The share valid for 12 months or more: 60.1 percent in 2019, 63.8 percent in 2025.
Share of permits valid for 12 months or more
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by length of validity, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
Eurostat's count and the national count, 2025
First residence permits for work, Eurostat, 2025
Work permits for employees, first grants, Swedish Migration Agency, 2025
Work permits on all work grounds, first grants, Swedish Migration Agency, 2025
The agency's count on all work grounds also holds family members of permit holders, whom Eurostat counts under family reasons; its count for employees is close to Eurostat's.
Sources: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, updated 11 September 2026; Swedish Migration Agency, Beviljade arbetstillstånd 2025 (work permits granted), retrieved 28 September 2026.
Below Finland, Denmark and the EU rate
First residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64
The first residence permits for work a country issues in a year, divided by the residents aged 20 to 64 living there on 1 January of that year. These are first permits only, as Eurostat counts them.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst (first residence permits for employment) and demo_pjangroup (residents aged 20 to 64 on 1 January), reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026 and 25 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026. Werklist calculation. The EU line: migr_resfirst and demo_pjangroup for the 27 EU countries (residents aged 20 to 64 in 2024 summed from single years of age, demo_pjan).
Per 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, by length of permit
| EU | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All lengths | 1.9 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 4.9 |
| 12 months or more | 1.2 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| 3 to 11 months | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.3 |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by length of validity (updated 11 September 2026) and demo_pjangroup (updated 25 September 2026), 2025, retrieved 27 September 2026. Werklist calculation. Norway and Iceland: rates of the Werklist record on Eurostat migr_resfirst.
Sweden issued 1.9 first residence permits for work per 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, down from 4.4 in 2019 and below Denmark (4.7), Finland (2.9), Norway (2.4) and Iceland (2.3 in 2024, its last year without a break). Finland fell from its peak of 5.0 in 2022, while Denmark rose; the EU rate is 4.9. On permits of a year or more Sweden issues 1.2, Finland 2.0 and Denmark 3.7. The dates of the rules show timing, not cause.
How Finland changed its rules
Sources: Finnish Immigration Service, 18 December 2024 and 11 June 2025; Acts 255/2025 and 1408/2025, Statute Book of Finland; retrieved 27 September 2026.
India leads, and Thailand's permits fell by a quarter
India received 2,110 permits in 2025 and Thailand 1,778, a quarter fewer than in 2024; Türkiye rose from 542 to 699. The seven sourcing centres of Werklist received 2,769 permits, 24.5 percent: India 2,110, Nepal 170, Bangladesh 154, the Philippines 137, Vietnam 134, Uzbekistan 39 and Indonesia 25.
| Citizenship | Permits 2024 | Permits 2025 | Share 2024 | Share 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,313 | 2,110 | 18.2% | 18.7% | |
| 2,386 | 1,778 | 18.7% | 15.7% | |
| 890 | 826 | 7.0% | 7.3% | |
| 542 | 699 | 4.3% | 6.2% | |
| 621 | 554 | 4.9% | 4.9% | |
| 435 | 508 | 3.4% | 4.5% | |
| 538 | 466 | 4.2% | 4.1% | |
| 339 | 267 | 2.7% | 2.4% | |
| 263 | 234 | 2.1% | 2.1% | |
| 216 | 214 | 1.7% | 1.9% | |
| Other origins | 4,194 | 3,634 | 32.9% | 32.2% |
| All origins | 12,737 | 11,290 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship, reference years 2024 and 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
India alone received 18.7% of the permits issued in 2025
Shares of the first residence permits for work issued in 2025, by citizenship.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship, reference year 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
Denmark issued 5,694 permits to the seven centres, Sweden 2,769
Permits for citizens of the seven sourcing centres (Nepal, India, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia and Uzbekistan) in 2025 (Iceland: 2024), against all first residence permits for work.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship, reference year 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026. Iceland: reference year 2024, its last year counted without a break, updated 28 September 2026, retrieved 30 September 2026.
India and Thailand lead, both well below 2019
First residence permits for work by citizenship, 2019 to 2025
All origins fell from 25,556 permits in 2019 to 11,290 in 2025. Thailand fell most, from 6,979 in 2022 to 1,778; of the origins shown, only Nepal rose, from 47 to 170.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, by citizenship, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 28 September 2026, retrieved 30 September 2026.
The seven sourcing centres in 2025: India 2,110, Nepal 170, Bangladesh 154, the Philippines 137, Vietnam 134, Uzbekistan 39 and Indonesia 25.
| Citizenship | 2019 | 2024 | 2025 | Share 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,662 | 2,313 | 2,110 | 18.7% | |
| 6,449 | 2,386 | 1,778 | 15.7% | |
| 1,061 | 890 | 826 | 7.3% | |
| 903 | 542 | 699 | 6.2% | |
| 698 | 621 | 554 | 4.9% | |
| 677 | 435 | 508 | 4.5% | |
| not reported | 538 | 466 | 4.1% | |
| 424 | 339 | 267 | 2.4% | |
| 47 | 93 | 170 | 1.5% | |
| 397 | 150 | 154 | 1.4% | |
| 152 | 63 | 137 | 1.2% | |
| 307 | 122 | 134 | 1.2% | |
| 195 | 78 | 39 | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 25 | 25 | 0.2% | |
| Other origins | 9,553 | 4,142 | 3,423 | 30.3% |
| All origins | 25,556 | 12,737 | 11,290 | 100.0% |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, by citizenship, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 28 September 2026, retrieved 30 September 2026.
Higher salary floor, 334,000 more people aged 20 to 64
The rules as they stand on 28 September 2026
From 1 June 2026 a work permit needs at least 90 percent of the median salary, SEK 34,470 a month from 16 June 2026; listed occupations need 75 percent.
A work permit runs for at most two years and not beyond the contract; pay and terms must match Swedish collective agreements.
When the job starts the employer must hold health, life, industrial injury and occupational pension insurance for the employee.
The agency decided 75 percent of recent complete applications within 4 months, or within 1 month for highly qualified work.
Sources: Swedish Migration Agency, page Employees and news of 1 June and 16 June 2026; Aliens Ordinance (2006:97), chapter 5, section 6; retrieved 28 September 2026.
About 334,000 more people aged 20 to 64 by 2041
Eurostat projects 5,987,347 in 2026 and 6,321,846 in 2041, a rise of 5.6 percent. With lower migration the rise is 77,561, with higher migration 595,252.
Source: Eurostat, proj_25np, EUROPOP2025 baseline and migration sensitivity tests, updated 11 June 2026; 2025 observed, demo_pjangroup, updated 25 September 2026; retrieved 27 September 2026.
Citizens of Sweden who left in 2024
20,634 more citizens left than returned in 2024, small beside 5.98 million people aged 20 to 64.
Eurostat, migr_emi1ctz, retrieved 27 September 2026
Unemployment in 2025, against 6.0 percent across the EU
The IMF projects 8.6 percent for 2026.
Eurostat, une_rt_a; IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2026; retrieved 27 September 2026
Work permits extended in 2025, Swedish Migration Agency
More permits were extended than first granted on all work grounds, 22,965.
Swedish Migration Agency, Beviljade arbetstillstånd 2025, retrieved 28 September 2026
About 9,960 permits in 2026, between 6,160 and 15,100
We expect about 9,960 first residence permits for work in 2026. Since 1 June 2026 forest berry pickers get no work permit; the central line takes out the 1,526 Thai permits of 3 to 5 months of 2025. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is falling. In 2031 the central line gives 8,980 and the count held flat 11,200.
Permits in 2026, our estimate
between 6,160 and 15,100
Permits a year in 2031, the central line, on stated assumptions
held flat 11,200; scenarios: without the berry ban 10,400, all short permits out 8,240, demand without migration 11,400, peers' rate 13,100
Direction of the rules and of the count
Permits in 2027: falling; the range is too wide for a yearly number
The central line falls to 8,980 by 2031; held flat, 11,200
Permits issued to 2025, then our estimate with its range for 2026; for 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number and the direction is falling. From 2027, two lines on stated assumptions and three scenarios, not forecasts. Without the berry ban keeps the 1,526 Thai permits of 3 to 5 months; all short permits out removes all 2,331 of 2025, a bound. The peers' rate moves Sweden from 1.89 to 2.67 per 1,000 people aged 20 to 64, the median of its four peers, over ten years; it would need an easier salary floor. Not drawn: demand without migration, a scenario, 11,400 in 2031.
Source: Werklist estimate from Eurostat migr_resfirst (to 2025, updated 11 September 2026; by citizenship and length of validity, 2025) and the Swedish Migration Agency, news of 1 June 2026. Central line: the fall of the last five years (8.2 percent a year) carried at half its pace, less the 1,526 Thai permits of 3 to 5 months from 1 June 2026; held flat: the count of 2025, rounded down to 11,200; peers' rate: Iceland's rate of 2024, the others of 2025, over EUROPOP2025. Retrieved 27 and 28 September 2026. Values rounded to three significant figures; Low and High give the range of 2026.
Shares of 2025 moved by the berry ban, and the drivers
Nepal's share rises from 1.5% in 2025 to about 1.7% in 2031
Our estimate: the shares of 2025, moved by the ban on permits for forest berry pickers, which takes out most Thai permits from 2026. Range for Nepal in 2031: 1.1 to 2.6 percent. The other sourcing centres in 2031: India 21.6%, Bangladesh 1.6%, the Philippines 1.4%, Vietnam 1.3%, Uzbekistan 0.3% and Indonesia 0.2%.
Source: Werklist estimate on Eurostat migr_resfirst by citizenship and length of validity, updated 28 September 2026, retrieved 28 September 2026. Shares of each year's permits to 2034: the shares of 2025, moved by the ban on permits for forest berry pickers of 1 June 2026.
The drivers of the estimate
Only the count's own trend enters the central line; the others stand beside it.
5.6 percent more from 2026 to 2041. It enters neither the central nor the held line: the working age does not fall.
The mean yearly change of the last five years, carried into the central line and damped by half each year: down to a factor of 0.92.
39,550 left and 18,916 returned, all ages.
The IMF's projection of real GDP growth for the year the estimate starts.
Of the labour force, the IMF's projection for the year the estimate starts.
Against 2.67, the median of its four peers' latest rates (Iceland's of 2024), and 4.92 across the EU.
Sources: Eurostat proj_25np (EUROPOP2025); the Werklist country record, edition 2026.1; Eurostat migr_emi1ctz and migr_imm1ctz; IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026; retrieved 27 September 2026.
What could change this
The ban on permits for berry pickers is in the central line; the two other changes of 2026 sit outside our lines. Each could move the numbers on this page and the one before.
No permits for berry pickers
Since 1 June 2026 forest berry pickers get no work permit. The central line takes out the 1,526 Thai permits of 3 to 5 months of 2025: 8,980 in 2031, against 10,400 without the ban and 8,240 with all 2,331 short permits out.
A salary floor that follows the median
The floor is 90 percent of the median from 1 June 2026, SEK 34,470 a month from 16 June 2026 on the new median of Statistics Sweden, and it moves again with each update of the median.
Good conduct and family renewals
Stricter good conduct rules apply from 13 July 2026, and from 1 October 2026 family members must meet the maintenance requirement at renewal. Both are law; neither shows in a count yet.
How to read this report
What a first residence permit for work is
The first residence permit a citizen of a country outside the EU receives in order to work. Renewals are not counted. Permits valid for less than 3 months are not counted, and the Swedish Migration Agency counts its 33,124 extensions of 2025 apart.
What the range and the lines mean
For 2026 our estimate gives a yearly number with a low and a high end. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number, so we give only the direction. After that we give two lines, each on a stated assumption. A scenario, drawn grey, says what would have to be true; it is never a forecast.
How the estimate is made
We start from 11,290 permits in 2025. The central line carries the fall of the last five years at half its pace and takes out the 1,526 Thai permits of 3 to 5 months from 1 June 2026, when forest berry pickers no longer qualify: about 9,960 in 2026. The held line keeps the count of 2025. The salary floor of June 2026 is left out, as no count sizes it.
Numbers, dates and words
Past counts are printed exactly; estimates are rounded to three significant figures. The comparison with Denmark, Finland, Norway and Iceland is our arithmetic on Eurostat data. Permits are counted, not people; people appear only where we speak of the population.
Sources
Every source retrieved 27, 28 or 30 September 2026.
- Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits by reason, length of validity and citizenship, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ migr_resfirst - Eurostat, demo_gind, demo_pjangroup and demo_pjanbroad, population, births, deaths and age. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - Eurostat, migr_imm1ctz and migr_emi1ctz, immigration and emigration by citizenship. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - Eurostat, proj_25np, EUROPOP2025 population projection, baseline and migration sensitivity tests, updated 11 June 2026. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ proj_25np - Eurostat, nama_10_gdp, nama_10_pc, tec00114 and tec00115, GDP, GDP per head and growth. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - Eurostat, lfsi_emp_a and une_rt_a, employment and unemployment. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026, real GDP growth. imf.org/
external/ datamapper - Swedish Migration Agency, Beviljade arbetstillstånd 2024 and 2025 (work permits granted); page Employees; news of 1 June, 16 June, 13 July and 21 September 2026. migrationsverket.se
- Government of Sweden, Aliens Ordinance (2006:97), chapter 5, section 6, as in force on 1 June 2026. riksdagen.se
- Finnish Immigration Service, news of 18 December 2024 and 11 June 2025; Acts 255/2025 and 1408/2025, Statute Book of Finland. migri.fi, finlex.fi
Photographs and flags
Wikimedia Commons: Stockholm at dusk, Richardmaackphotography, CC BY 4.0 (cover); Malmö in the evening, Arniiiwebmovie, CC BY-SA 4.0 (page 3); oat harvest in Brastad, W.carter, CC BY-SA 4.0; Gothenburg harbour, Amjad Sheikh, CC BY 4.0; building work at Slussen, Stockholm, Sinikka Halme, CC BY-SA 4.0; Södermalm, Stockholm, Arild Vågen, CC BY-SA 2.0; port cranes in Gothenburg, Slottsviken51, CC BY-SA 4.0 (back cover). Flags: circle-flags by HatScripts, MIT licence.
What this report answers
How many first residence permits for work has Sweden issued each year since 2019?
11,290 in 2025, 11.4% fewer than the 12,737 of 2024 and 56 percent fewer than the 25,556 of 2019. Permits fell three years running.
Which countries do the new hires come from?
Citizens of India received 2,110 permits in 2025 and of Thailand 1,778, a quarter fewer than in 2024; Türkiye rose from 542 to 699. The seven Werklist sourcing centres received 2,769.
How does Sweden compare with the EU and the Nordic countries?
1.9 first residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, down from 4.4 in 2019, below Denmark's 4.7, Finland's 2.9 and the EU rate of 4.9.
How long do the permits run?
63.8% of the permits of 2025 run for 12 months or more, against 60.1% in 2019; 20.6% run for 3 to 5 months.
Which rules apply to employers who hire from abroad?
From 1 June 2026 a work permit needs at least 90 percent of the median salary, SEK 34,470 a month from 16 June 2026, and forest berry pickers no longer qualify. A work permit runs for at most two years.
How is the working age population changing?
It grows: Eurostat projects 5,987,347 people aged 20 to 64 in 2026 and 6,321,846 in 2041, a rise of 5.6 percent, about 334,000 more.
How many first residence permits for work do we expect Sweden to issue in 2026, and what comes after?
About 9,960 in 2026, between 6,160 and 15,100, as forest berry pickers no longer qualify. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is falling. In 2031 the central line, on stated assumptions, gives 8,980 a year and the count held flat 11,200.
The full report answers each question with its figures, charts and sources. Request the full report