Workforce Migration Report 2026: Sweden

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Stockholm at dusk, Gamla stan seen from Södermalm
Workforce Migration Report 2026
Sweden
11,290
First residence permits for work issued in 2025

Contents

In brief

Sweden issued 11,290 first residence permits for work in 2025, 11.4 percent fewer than in 2024 and 56 percent fewer than the 25,556 of 2019. That is 1.9 for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64, the lowest of the Nordic countries and well below the EU rate of 4.9. The rules are tightening: from 1 June 2026 a work permit needs 90 percent of the median salary, SEK 34,470 a month from 16 June 2026, and forest berry pickers no longer qualify. India was the largest origin with 2,110 permits, and the seven sourcing centres of Werklist received 2,769. We expect about 9,960 permits in 2026, between 6,160 and 15,100; for 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number, and the direction is falling. In 2031 the central line, on stated assumptions, gives 8,980 a year and the count held flat 11,200.

Observed

First residence permits for work issued in 2025, down 11.4 percent on 2024

11,290
Our estimate

Permits in 2026, between 6,160 and 15,100

9,960
Line on stated assumptions

Permits a year in 2031, central line; held flat 11,200

8,980
Projection of the source

More people aged 20 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026

334,000

10.6 million people, growth down to 17,819 in 2025

Sweden has 10.61 million people, 858,174 more than in 2015. Births still exceed deaths, 97,491 against 92,212 in 2025, but net migration fell from 71,647 in 2019 to 12,540, so the population grew by 17,819, against 97,404 in 2019. Output per head is 135 percent of the EU average. On Eurostat's 2025 projection the number of people aged 20 to 64 rises 5.6 percent by 2041.

Malmö in the evening

People living in Sweden on 1 January 2026

10,605,529

8.8 percent more than in 2015, and 2.3 percent of the EU's 452.0 million. People aged 65 and over were 20.8 percent of the population in 2025.

GDP in 2025, billion euro at current prices

600.4

3.2 percent of the EU economy.

GDP per head in 2025

56,250euro

135 percent of the EU average of 41,700 euro in 2025. Counting higher prices at home, 111 percent, down from 126 percent in 2015.

Real growth in 2025

1.4%

Against 1.4 percent across the EU. Over 2021 to 2025 the economy grew 10.0 percent in all, the EU grew 13.7 percent (our estimate from the yearly rates).

People aged 20 to 64 in work, 2025

81.8%

Against 76.1 percent across the EU.

Two changes to work permits in 2026

1 June 2026Salary floor of 90 percent of the median, SEK 34,470 from 16 June; no permits for berry pickers.
13 July 2026Stricter good conduct rules apply.

Sources: Eurostat, demo_gind (population, updated 21 July 2026), nama_10_gdp and nama_10_pc (GDP, updated 21 September 2026), tec00114 (price adjusted GDP per head), tec00115 (growth), lfsi_emp_a (employment), demo_pjanbroad (age). All retrieved 27 September 2026. Figures for 2025 GDP, GDP per head and growth are provisional. Key dates: Swedish Migration Agency, news of 1 June, 16 June and 13 July 2026, retrieved 28 September 2026.

Births barely exceed deaths, and net migration fell to 12,540

Births exceeded deaths by 5,279 in 2025, and net migration fell to 12,540

In 2025, 92,212 people died and 97,491 were born. Net migration added 12,540, so the population grew by 17,819.

Births minus deathsNet migration
0+20,000+40,000+60,000+80,0002019202020212022202320242025Births minus deathsNet migrationChange in the populationMoved inMoved out+25,757+71,647+97,404115,80547,718+14,953+36,753+51,70682,51848,937+22,305+50,726+73,03190,63148,284+9,997+59,233+69,230102,43650,592+5,666+24,485+30,15194,51473,434+7,183+28,820+36,003116,19786,449+5,279+12,540+17,819

Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (updated 21 July 2026), migr_imm1ctz and migr_emi1ctz (moves of a year or more), retrieved 27 September 2026. Net migration includes Eurostat's statistical adjustment. Not published: moves in and out for 2025.

About 11.15 million people by 2041 on Eurostat's projection

Observed to 2026, then Eurostat's 2025 projection in the lighter line: 11.15 million in 2041, with the migration tests at 10.76 and 11.54 million.

9 million10 million11 million12 millionEurostat's projection9.75 million in 201510.61 million in 202611.15 million in 204111.54 million, more migration10.76 million, less migration201520202026203120362041

Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (observed, updated 21 July 2026) and proj_25np (EUROPOP2025 baseline and migration tests, updated 11 June 2026), retrieved 27 September 2026.

The share aged 65 and over rises to 24%

0 to 1415 to 6465 and over
2025, observed16.8%62.4%20.8%2041, Eurostat's projection14.0%61.9%24.1%

Source: Eurostat, demo_pjanbroad (2025) and proj_25np (2041), retrieved 27 September 2026.

600.4 billion euro in 2025, and the IMF forecast to 2031

Billion euro, 2025 pricesIMF forecast
500550600650700600.4 in 2025672.8 in 203120171.9%20192.6%20215.2%2023-0.2%20251.4%20271.9%20291.9%20311.8%

Real growth under each year: observed to 2025 (Eurostat, tec00115), the IMF forecast after. Sources: Eurostat, nama_10_gdp (2025 provisional); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation: the other years are the 2025 value moved by the real growth rates; retrieved 27 September 2026.

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What this report answers

  • How many first residence permits for work has Sweden issued each year since 2019?

    11,290 in 2025, 11.4% fewer than the 12,737 of 2024 and 56 percent fewer than the 25,556 of 2019. Permits fell three years running.

  • Which countries do the new hires come from?

    Citizens of India received 2,110 permits in 2025 and of Thailand 1,778, a quarter fewer than in 2024; Türkiye rose from 542 to 699. The seven Werklist sourcing centres received 2,769.

  • How does Sweden compare with the EU and the Nordic countries?

    1.9 first residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, down from 4.4 in 2019, below Denmark's 4.7, Finland's 2.9 and the EU rate of 4.9.

  • How long do the permits run?

    63.8% of the permits of 2025 run for 12 months or more, against 60.1% in 2019; 20.6% run for 3 to 5 months.

  • Which rules apply to employers who hire from abroad?

    From 1 June 2026 a work permit needs at least 90 percent of the median salary, SEK 34,470 a month from 16 June 2026, and forest berry pickers no longer qualify. A work permit runs for at most two years.

  • How is the working age population changing?

    It grows: Eurostat projects 5,987,347 people aged 20 to 64 in 2026 and 6,321,846 in 2041, a rise of 5.6 percent, about 334,000 more.

  • How many first residence permits for work do we expect Sweden to issue in 2026, and what comes after?

    About 9,960 in 2026, between 6,160 and 15,100, as forest berry pickers no longer qualify. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is falling. In 2031 the central line, on stated assumptions, gives 8,980 a year and the count held flat 11,200.

The full report answers each question with its figures, charts and sources. Request the full report