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Contents
In brief

The country
- 3
6.5 million people, fewer every year since 2015
- 4
More deaths than births, and an older population

Where the market is now
- 5
Permits rose 15.6 percent in 2025
- 6
6.3 per 1,000, above the EU’s 4.9
- 7
China leads, Russia’s share halved
- 8
Seven sourcing centres: 31.0%
- 9
Single permits online, 557,000 fewer aged 15 to 64 by 2041

The outlook
- 10
About 23,800 permits in 2026, between 14,700 and 36,100
- 11
Origin shares held, working age down 13.7 percent by 2041
- 11
What could change this

Method and sources
- 12
How to read this report
- 12
Sources, photographs and flags
Cover: Belgrade at night, the Sava and its new riverside towers. Photograph by Stefan Pantic, Pexels.
Serbia issued 23,847 first residence permits for work to citizens of countries outside the EU in 2025, 15.6 percent more than in 2024, the first year Eurostat publishes for Serbia; most are single permits for temporary residence and work. That is 6.3 for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64, above the EU's 4.9. China overtook Russia as the largest origin, and the seven sourcing centres of Werklist rose from 19.2 to 31.0 percent. The rules hold steady: the single permit has been filed online since February 2024. On the World Bank's mid year projection Serbia has about 557,000 fewer people aged 15 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026. Our estimate is about 23,800 permits in 2026, the 2025 level held; for 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number, and the direction is flat. In 2031 the count held flat gives 23,800 a year; the working age scenario, not a forecast, gives 27,600.
First residence permits for work in 2025, up 15.6 percent on 2024
Permits in 2026, 14,700 to 36,100
Permits a year in 2031, working age scenario; held flat 23,800
Fewer people aged 15 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026, mid year
6.5 million people, fewer every year since 2015
Serbia has 6.5 million people, 582,374 fewer than in 2015. Deaths have outnumbered births in every year since 2019, by 35,764 in 2025. The economy grew 2.0 percent in 2025, faster than the EU's 1.4, yet output per head is 32 percent of the EU average. The World Bank projects 13.7 percent fewer people aged 15 to 64 by 2041.

People living in Serbia on 1 January 2026
8.2 percent fewer than in 2015. People aged 65 and over were 22.7 percent of the population in 2025.
GDP in 2025, billion euro at current prices
At current prices and exchange rates.
GDP per head in 2025
32 percent of the EU average of 41,700 euro. Counting lower prices at home, 52 percent, up from 40 percent in 2015.
Real growth in 2025
Against 1.4 percent across the EU. Over 2021 to 2025 the economy grew 21.8 percent in all, the EU 13.7 percent (our estimate from the yearly rates).
People aged 20 to 64 in work, 2025
Against 76.1 percent across the EU.
The single permit for residence and work
Sources: Eurostat, demo_gind (population, updated 21 July 2026), nama_10_gdp and nama_10_pc (GDP, updated 21 September 2026), tec00114 (price adjusted GDP per head), tec00115 (growth), lfsi_emp_a (employment), demo_pjanbroad (age). All retrieved 27 September 2026. Figures for 2025 GDP, GDP per head and growth are provisional. Official Gazette of the Republic of Serbia 62/2023, publisher's note on the Law on Employment of Foreigners, Legal Information System, retrieved 27 September 2026.
More deaths than births, and an older population
Deaths outnumber births every year; the one migration figure, in 2022, is the census revision
In 2022, 109,203 people died and 62,700 were born. The census of 2022 revised the population down by about 109,000, mostly for emigration of earlier years, so the population fell by 155,908.
Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (updated 21 July 2026), retrieved 27 September 2026. The 2022 value is Eurostat's net migration plus statistical adjustment, which carries the census revision. The values for 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023, 2024, 2025 are published as zero with no measured balance and are left blank.
About 5.80 million people by 2041 on the World Bank's projection
Estimated to 2026, then the World Bank's projection in the lighter line.
Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (observed); World Bank, population projection based on UN World Population Prospects 2024; retrieved 27 September 2026. The projection is for the middle of the year.
The share aged 65 and over rises to 27%
Source: Eurostat, demo_pjanbroad (2025); World Bank, population estimates and projections (2041), retrieved 27 September 2026.
88.7 billion euro in 2025, and the IMF forecast to 2031
Real growth under each year. Sources: Eurostat, nama_10_gdp (2025 provisional); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation; retrieved 27 September 2026.
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ReportsPermits rose 15.6 percent in 2025
Eurostat counts Serbia from 2024, and 2025 added 3,211 permits
Serbia issued 23,847 first residence permits for work in 2025, against 20,636 in 2024. Eurostat publishes no earlier year for Serbia.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, reference years 2024 and 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
In Serbia a first residence permit for work is mostly the first single permit for temporary residence and work given to a citizen of a country outside the EU, valid three months or more; renewals are not counted. The Government's count of single permits approved is higher, but it covers other months and does not say how many are renewals, so the two do not compare.
Nearly nine in ten run a year or more
Valid for 12 months or more: 85.3 percent in 2024, 87.0 in 2025.
Share of permits valid for 12 months or more
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by length of validity, reference years 2024 and 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
Eurostat's count, 2024, and the Government's count of single permits approved, February 2024 to January 2025
First residence permits for work, Eurostat, 2024
Single permits approved, 1 February 2024 to January 2025
Eurostat counts only a person's first residence permit for work, valid three months or more; the Government counts applications approved and does not say how many are renewals.
Sources: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, updated 11 September 2026; Government of the Republic of Serbia, news release 242632 of 4 February 2025 on single permits for residence and work approved; retrieved 27 September 2026.
Serbia at 6.3 per 1,000, above the EU's 4.9
First residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64
The first residence permits for work a country issues in a year, divided by the residents aged 20 to 64 living there on 1 January of that year. Renewals are left out, as Eurostat counts them.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst (first residence permits for employment reasons) and demo_pjangroup (residents aged 20 to 64 on 1 January), reference years 2024 and 2025, updated 11 September 2026 and 25 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026. Werklist calculation; the EU line is the EU27.
Per 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, by length of permit, with two EU neighbours
| EU | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All lengths | 6.3 | 8.5 | 21.1 | 4.9 |
| 12 months or more | 5.5 | 7.5 | 1.6 | 3.6 |
| 6 months or more | 6.2 | 8.3 | 16.9 | 4.8 |
| 3 to 5 months | 0.1 | 0.2 | 4.2 | 0.2 |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by length of validity and demo_pjangroup, 2025, updated 11 and 25 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026. Werklist calculation.
Serbia issued 6.3 first residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, up from 5.4 in 2024 and above the EU's 4.9. Croatia and Hungary, two EU neighbours, are shown for comparison. Croatia's 21.1 is mostly permits of 6 to 11 months: on permits of a year or more Serbia issued 5.5, Croatia 1.6 and the EU 3.6. Hungary issued 8.5. Serbia's peers, Albania, North Macedonia, Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina, keep national registers; their rates, on people aged 15 to 64, are on page 10.
How Croatia tightened its rules
Sources: Narodne novine 40/2025 and 55/2026, gazette text, retrieved 27 September 2026.
China now leads, and Russia's share has halved
Citizens of China received 4,838 permits in 2025, up from 3,909, and overtook Russia, down from 7,360 to 4,241. The seven sourcing centres of Werklist took 31.0 percent, up from 19.2: India 3,238, Nepal 1,957, Bangladesh 1,021, Uzbekistan 607, the Philippines 406, Indonesia 140 and Vietnam 14.
| Citizenship | Permits 2024 | Permits 2025 | Share 2024 | Share 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3,909 | 4,838 | 18.9% | 20.3% | |
| 7,360 | 4,241 | 35.7% | 17.8% | |
| 2,390 | 3,312 | 11.6% | 13.9% | |
| 2,239 | 3,238 | 10.8% | 13.6% | |
| 866 | 1,957 | 4.2% | 8.2% | |
| 294 | 1,021 | 1.4% | 4.3% | |
| 890 | 968 | 4.3% | 4.1% | |
| 300 | 607 | 1.5% | 2.5% | |
| 173 | 406 | 0.8% | 1.7% | |
| 80 | 140 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 1 | 14 | <0.1% | 0.1% | |
| Other origins | 2,134 | 3,105 | 10.3% | 13.0% |
| All origins | 20,636 | 23,847 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship, reference years 2024 and 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
China alone received 20.3% of the permits issued in 2025
Shares of 2025 first residence permits for work, by citizenship.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship, reference year 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
The seven sourcing centres received 7,383 permits in Serbia in 2025, 31.0% of its total
Permits in 2025 for citizens of the seven sourcing centres (Nepal, India, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia and Uzbekistan), against all first residence permits for work. In the four EU neighbours, shown for comparison, their share is 49.6 percent in Croatia, 39.3 in Hungary, 63.2 in Bulgaria and 55.8 in Romania; the registers of Serbia's Western Balkan peers give no split by citizenship.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship, reference year 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
Seven sourcing centres: 31.0 percent in 2025, up from 19.2
First residence permits for work by citizenship, 2024 and 2025
China overtook Russia in 2025, as permits for citizens of Russia fell from 7,360 to 4,241. The seven sourcing centres of Werklist rose from 19.2 to 31.0 percent of first residence permits for work in one year; Eurostat publishes Serbia only from 2024, so this is one year’s move, not a trend.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, by citizenship, reference years 2024 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 29 September 2026.
In 2025 India had 3,238 first residence permits for work, Nepal 1,957, Bangladesh 1,021, Uzbekistan 607, the Philippines 406, Indonesia 140 and Vietnam 14.
| Citizenship | 2024 | 2025 | Share 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3,909 | 4,838 | 20.3% | |
| 7,360 | 4,241 | 17.8% | |
| 2,390 | 3,312 | 13.9% | |
| 2,239 | 3,238 | 13.6% | |
| 866 | 1,957 | 8.2% | |
| 294 | 1,021 | 4.3% | |
| 890 | 968 | 4.1% | |
| 300 | 607 | 2.5% | |
| 173 | 406 | 1.7% | |
| 80 | 140 | 0.6% | |
| 1 | 14 | 0.1% | |
| Other origins | 2,134 | 3,105 | 13.0% |
| All origins | 20,636 | 23,847 | 100.0% |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, by citizenship, reference years 2024 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 29 September 2026.
Single permits online, 557,000 fewer aged 15 to 64 by 2041
The rules as they stand on 27 September 2026
The single permit for temporary residence and work is filed online on the single portal. A citizen who needs a visa files after entering on a long stay visa for work.
The employment service tests the labour market within four days. After dismissals from those posts for economic or organisational reasons, the employer waits three months.
The Ministry of the Interior decides within 15 days of a complete application; the employment and security services report within 10 days.
A single permit runs for up to three years and can be renewed for the same period, applying from three months before it ends.
The government may cap the number of permits by decision, for certain sectors or countries, when the labour market is disturbed.
Sources: Law on Foreigners, articles 46b, 46e and 46g, and Law on Employment of Foreigners, articles 16, 16a and 24, as amended by Official Gazette 62/2023, Legal Information System of the Republic of Serbia. All retrieved 27 September 2026.
About 557,000 fewer people aged 15 to 64 by 2041
The World Bank projects 4,060,642 in 2026 and 3,503,960 in 2041, a fall of 13.7 percent.
Source: World Bank, population estimates and projections (SP.POP.1564.TO, based on UN World Population Prospects 2024), retrieved 27 September 2026.
Citizens of Serbia given a first EU residence permit in 2025, for any reason, down from 53,378 in 2023
Counted by the EU country that issued them, for work, family, study and other reasons.
Eurostat, migr_resfirst, retrieved 27 September 2026
Unemployment in 2025, against 6.0 percent across the EU
Share of the labour force without a job, from the labour force survey.
Eurostat, une_rt_a, retrieved 27 September 2026
First EU residence permits for work given to citizens of Serbia in 2025, down from 28,356 in 2023
Close to the 23,847 first residence permits for work Serbia itself gave citizens of other countries that year.
Eurostat, migr_resfirst, retrieved 27 September 2026
About 23,800 permits in 2026, between 14,700 and 36,100
We expect about 23,800 first residence permits for work in 2026, the 2025 level held: Eurostat has two years for Serbia, too few for a trend. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is flat. In 2031 the count held flat gives 23,800, and the working age scenario, which rises with the fall in people aged 15 to 64, 27,600. The peers’ rate uses people aged 15 to 64 (World Bank), the same base for Serbia and each peer: on it Serbia had 5.81 permits per 1,000 in 2025 and the EU 4.53 (6.3 and 4.9 on residents aged 20 to 64, page 6).
Permits in 2026, our estimate
between 14,700 and 36,100
Permits a year in 2031, the working age scenario, not a forecast
held flat 23,800; peers' rate 23,100, a scenario
Direction of the rules and of the count
Permits in 2027: flat; the range is too wide for a yearly number
The working age scenario rises to 27,600 by 2031; held flat, the count stays at 23,800
Observed to 2025, then our estimate with its range for 2026; for 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number and the direction is flat. From 2027, one line on a stated assumption and two scenarios. The working age scenario, not a forecast, moves toward 39,000 a year, 1.05 times the yearly loss of people aged 15 to 64, while the rules hold (the single permit for temporary residence and work, from 1 February 2024). The peers’ rate, a scenario, not a forecast, moves Serbia from 5.81 first residence permits for work a year per 1,000 people aged 15 to 64 to 6.05 over ten years, the median of Albania 9.06, North Macedonia 7.45, Kosovo 4.64 and Bosnia and Herzegovina 3.32; Montenegro, whose register counts every re-issue, is left out. For the count to follow it, Serbia’s rate would have to stay near its present level while the working age shrinks: 22,400 permits in 2036 against 30,500 on the working age scenario.
Source: Werklist estimate on Eurostat migr_resfirst (reference years 2024 and 2025, updated 11 September 2026); from 2027 the working age scenario, a scenario, moves toward 39,000 a year, 1.05 times the yearly fall of 37,112 people aged 15 to 64 (World Bank, SP.POP.1564.TO), and closes half the gap every 12 years; held flat keeps the 2025 level; the peers’ rate: the median of their 2025 rates over World Bank population data; retrieved 27 September 2026. Values rounded to three significant figures; the table gives the lines in 2031, 2036 and 2041 only, each line in a row of its own; Low and High give the range of 2026.
Origin shares held, working age down 13.7 percent by 2041
Seven sourcing centres took 19.2% in 2024 and 31.0% in 2025, then held
Observed in 2024 and 2025, then the 2025 shares held: Eurostat has two years for Serbia, too few to carry a change forward. Nepal's range for 2031: 5.5 to 12.3 percent. Held from 2025: India 13.6 percent, Nepal 8.2, Bangladesh 4.3, Uzbekistan 2.5, the Philippines 1.7, Indonesia 0.6 and Vietnam 0.1.
Source: Werklist estimate on Eurostat migr_resfirst by citizenship, updated 11 September 2026, with the 2025 shares held; retrieved 27 September 2026. Shares of each year's permits, to 2035; each year adds up to 100.
The drivers of the estimate
Only the working age enters the working age scenario; the other numbers stand beside it.
13.7 percent fewer from 2026 to 2041. It enters the working age scenario: toward 39,000 a year, 1.05 times this loss.
Eurostat has two years for Serbia, one yearly change, too few for a trend.
The IMF’s projection of real GDP growth for the year the estimate starts.
Of the labour force, the IMF’s projection for the year the estimate starts.
41,319 single permits approved, February 2024 to January 2025; Eurostat, 20,636 in 2024.
On people aged 15 to 64, the base of the peers’ rates (6.3 on residents aged 20 to 64, page 6). Against 6.05, the median of four Western Balkan peers, and 4.53 across the EU (4.9 on ages 20 to 64).
Sources: World Bank; IMF, April 2026; Eurostat, migr_resfirst; Government of Serbia; the peers’ registers; retrieved 27 September 2026.
What could change this
Three changes sit outside our estimate. Each could move the numbers on this page and the one before.
A quota set by the government
Article 24 of the Law on Employment of Foreigners lets the government cap permits by decision, by sector or by country. A cap would push the numbers down; our estimate assumes none.
Expo 2027 in Belgrade
The exhibition runs from 15 May to 15 August 2027. No source yet measures an effect on permits for work, either way, and it is not in our estimate.
Fewer permits for Russians
Permits for citizens of Russia fell from 7,360 in 2024 to 4,241 in 2025 while most other origins rose. A second fall of that size would take about 3,100 off the total.
How to read this report
What a first residence permit for work is
The first residence permit a citizen of a country outside the EU receives to work, valid three months or more; in Serbia mainly the single permit for temporary residence and work. Renewals are not counted. Family members of a permit holder, permanent residents and some business stays of up to 90 days need no permit to work.
What the range and the lines mean
Every estimate comes with a low end and a high end; we expect the real number to fall between them. We give a range for 2026 and, as its range is too wide, only a direction for 2027. From 2027: one line held flat, a stated assumption, and two scenarios. Observed numbers are solid lines, estimates dashed.
How the estimate is made
We hold the 23,847 permits of 2025 for 2026: Eurostat has two years for Serbia, too few for a trend. From 2027 the working age scenario moves toward 1.05 times the yearly fall in people aged 15 to 64, about 39,000 a year, closing half the gap every 12 years; held flat keeps the 2025 level.
Numbers, dates and words
Past counts are printed exactly; estimates are rounded to three significant figures. The comparisons with Croatia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and the EU are our arithmetic on Eurostat data. Permits are counted, not people; people appear only where we speak of the population.
Sources
Every source retrieved 27 September 2026; Eurostat's permits by citizenship over the years (page 8) on 29 September 2026.
- Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits by reason, length of validity and citizenship, reference years 2024 and 2025, updated 11 September 2026. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ migr_resfirst - Eurostat, demo_gind, demo_pjangroup and demo_pjanbroad, population, births, deaths and age. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - World Bank, population estimates and projections, based on UN World Population Prospects 2024. data.worldbank.org
- Eurostat, nama_10_gdp, nama_10_pc, tec00114 and tec00115, GDP, GDP per head and growth. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - Eurostat, lfsi_emp_a and une_rt_a, employment and unemployment. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026, real GDP growth. imf.org/
external/ datamapper - Official Gazette of the Republic of Serbia, Law on Foreigners (24/2018, 31/2019 and 62/2023), articles 46b, 46e and 46g; Law on Employment of Foreigners (128/2014 to 62/2023), articles 3, 16, 16a and 24. pravno-informacioni-sistem.rs
- Bureau International des Expositions, Expo 2027 Belgrade, 15 May to 15 August 2027. bie-paris.org
- Narodne novine, Croatia, Foreigners Act amendments 40/2025 of 7 March 2025 and 55/2026 of 27 May 2026. narodne-novine.nn.hr
- Government of the Republic of Serbia, 41,319 applications for a single permit for residence and work of foreign citizens approved, February 2024 to January 2025, news release 242632 of 4 February 2025. srbija.gov.rs/
vest/ en/ 242632 - National registers of the peers, Albania: National Agency for Employment and Skills, work permits issued for the first time; North Macedonia: Employment Agency, work permits approved on the quota; Kosovo: Ministry of Internal Affairs, temporary residence permits for employment, first and renewed; Bosnia and Herzegovina: Labour and Employment Agency, work permits, new and extended. 2025, as compiled in the Werklist country records, over the World Bank’s people aged 15 to 64 (the peers’ rates). data.worldbank.org
Photographs and flags
Pexels: Belgrade at night, Stefan Pantic (cover); Saint Sava, Belgrade, Alex Sanchez (page 3); port cranes, Enes Beydilli; central Belgrade, Kelly; tower cranes, Airam Dato-on; Ada bridge, Belgrade, Bojan Petkovic (back cover). Flags: circle-flags by HatScripts, MIT licence.
What this report answers
How many first residence permits for work has Serbia issued each year since 2019?
23,847 in 2025, 15.6% more than the 20,636 of 2024. Eurostat publishes Serbia from 2024 only, so there is no earlier year on this count.
Which countries do the new hires come from, and which are growing?
China overtook Russia in 2025 with 4,838 permits, while permits for Russia fell from 7,360 to 4,241. The seven sourcing centres of Werklist rose from 19.2 to 31.0 percent: India 3,238, Nepal 1,957 and Bangladesh 1,021.
How does Serbia compare with its neighbours per resident?
6.3 first residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, up from 5.4 in 2024: above the EU's 4.9, below Hungary's 8.5 and Croatia's 21.1.
Which rules apply to employers who hire from abroad?
The single permit for temporary residence and work is filed online since February 2024. The employment service tests the labour market within four days, the Ministry of the Interior decides within 15 days, and a permit runs for up to three years.
How is the working age population changing?
The World Bank projects 4,060,642 people aged 15 to 64 in 2026 and 3,503,960 in 2041: about 557,000 fewer, a fall of 13.7 percent.
How many first residence permits for work do we expect Serbia to issue in 2026, and what comes after?
About 23,800 in 2026, the 2025 level held, between 14,700 and 36,100. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is flat. In 2031 the count held flat gives 23,800 a year and the working age scenario, not a forecast, 27,600.
The full report answers each question with its figures, charts and sources. Request the full report