Workforce Migration Report 2026: Serbia

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Belgrade at night, the Sava and its new riverside towers
Workforce Migration Report 2026
Serbia
23,847
First residence permits for work issued in 2025

Contents

In brief

Serbia issued 23,847 first residence permits for work to citizens of countries outside the EU in 2025, 15.6 percent more than in 2024, the first year Eurostat publishes for Serbia; most are single permits for temporary residence and work. That is 6.3 for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64, above the EU's 4.9. China overtook Russia as the largest origin, and the seven sourcing centres of Werklist rose from 19.2 to 31.0 percent. The rules hold steady: the single permit has been filed online since February 2024. On the World Bank's mid year projection Serbia has about 557,000 fewer people aged 15 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026. Our estimate is about 23,800 permits in 2026, the 2025 level held; for 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number, and the direction is flat. In 2031 the count held flat gives 23,800 a year; the working age scenario, not a forecast, gives 27,600.

Observed

First residence permits for work in 2025, up 15.6 percent on 2024

23,847
Our estimate

Permits in 2026, 14,700 to 36,100

23,800
Scenario, not a forecast

Permits a year in 2031, working age scenario; held flat 23,800

27,600
Projection of the source

Fewer people aged 15 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026, mid year

557,000

6.5 million people, fewer every year since 2015

Serbia has 6.5 million people, 582,374 fewer than in 2015. Deaths have outnumbered births in every year since 2019, by 35,764 in 2025. The economy grew 2.0 percent in 2025, faster than the EU's 1.4, yet output per head is 32 percent of the EU average. The World Bank projects 13.7 percent fewer people aged 15 to 64 by 2041.

Streets of Belgrade

People living in Serbia on 1 January 2026

6,532,019

8.2 percent fewer than in 2015. People aged 65 and over were 22.7 percent of the population in 2025.

GDP in 2025, billion euro at current prices

88.7

At current prices and exchange rates.

GDP per head in 2025

13,540euro

32 percent of the EU average of 41,700 euro. Counting lower prices at home, 52 percent, up from 40 percent in 2015.

Real growth in 2025

2.0%

Against 1.4 percent across the EU. Over 2021 to 2025 the economy grew 21.8 percent in all, the EU 13.7 percent (our estimate from the yearly rates).

People aged 20 to 64 in work, 2025

71.6%

Against 76.1 percent across the EU.

The single permit for residence and work

27 July 2023Official Gazette 62/2023 amends both laws on foreigners.
1 February 2024The single permit for residence and work, filed online, applies.

Sources: Eurostat, demo_gind (population, updated 21 July 2026), nama_10_gdp and nama_10_pc (GDP, updated 21 September 2026), tec00114 (price adjusted GDP per head), tec00115 (growth), lfsi_emp_a (employment), demo_pjanbroad (age). All retrieved 27 September 2026. Figures for 2025 GDP, GDP per head and growth are provisional. Official Gazette of the Republic of Serbia 62/2023, publisher's note on the Law on Employment of Foreigners, Legal Information System, retrieved 27 September 2026.

More deaths than births, and an older population

Deaths outnumber births every year; the one migration figure, in 2022, is the census revision

In 2022, 109,203 people died and 62,700 were born. The census of 2022 revised the population down by about 109,000, mostly for emigration of earlier years, so the population fell by 155,908.

Births minus deathsCensus revision (2022)
−100,000−50,00002019202020212022202320242025Births minus deathsCensus revisionChange in the population−37,059−55,158−74,442−46,503−109,405−155,908−36,029−37,385−35,764

Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (updated 21 July 2026), retrieved 27 September 2026. The 2022 value is Eurostat's net migration plus statistical adjustment, which carries the census revision. The values for 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023, 2024, 2025 are published as zero with no measured balance and are left blank.

About 5.80 million people by 2041 on the World Bank's projection

Estimated to 2026, then the World Bank's projection in the lighter line.

5.5 million6.0 million6.5 million7.0 million7.5 millionWorld Bank projection7.11 million in 20156.53 million in 20265.80 million in 2041201520202026203120362041

Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (observed); World Bank, population projection based on UN World Population Prospects 2024; retrieved 27 September 2026. The projection is for the middle of the year.

The share aged 65 and over rises to 27%

0 to 1415 to 6465 and over
2025, observed14.4%62.8%22.7%2041, the World Bank's projection13.1%60.4%26.5%

Source: Eurostat, demo_pjanbroad (2025); World Bank, population estimates and projections (2041), retrieved 27 September 2026.

88.7 billion euro in 2025, and the IMF forecast to 2031

Billion euro, 2025 pricesIMF forecast
608010012088.7 in 2025108.3 in 203120172.4%20194.8%20217.9%20233.7%20252.0%20273.5%20293.5%20313.5%

Real growth under each year. Sources: Eurostat, nama_10_gdp (2025 provisional); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation; retrieved 27 September 2026.

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What this report answers

  • How many first residence permits for work has Serbia issued each year since 2019?

    23,847 in 2025, 15.6% more than the 20,636 of 2024. Eurostat publishes Serbia from 2024 only, so there is no earlier year on this count.

  • Which countries do the new hires come from, and which are growing?

    China overtook Russia in 2025 with 4,838 permits, while permits for Russia fell from 7,360 to 4,241. The seven sourcing centres of Werklist rose from 19.2 to 31.0 percent: India 3,238, Nepal 1,957 and Bangladesh 1,021.

  • How does Serbia compare with its neighbours per resident?

    6.3 first residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, up from 5.4 in 2024: above the EU's 4.9, below Hungary's 8.5 and Croatia's 21.1.

  • Which rules apply to employers who hire from abroad?

    The single permit for temporary residence and work is filed online since February 2024. The employment service tests the labour market within four days, the Ministry of the Interior decides within 15 days, and a permit runs for up to three years.

  • How is the working age population changing?

    The World Bank projects 4,060,642 people aged 15 to 64 in 2026 and 3,503,960 in 2041: about 557,000 fewer, a fall of 13.7 percent.

  • How many first residence permits for work do we expect Serbia to issue in 2026, and what comes after?

    About 23,800 in 2026, the 2025 level held, between 14,700 and 36,100. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is flat. In 2031 the count held flat gives 23,800 a year and the working age scenario, not a forecast, 27,600.

The full report answers each question with its figures, charts and sources. Request the full report