Workforce Migration Report 2026: Portugal

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Lisbon at night, the Rossio square and its fountain
Workforce Migration Report 2026
Portugal
240,523
First residence permits for work issued in 2025

Contents

In brief

Port cranes, Lisbon

The country

  1. 3

    11.4 million people, 1.0 million more than in 2015

  2. 4

    Fewer births than deaths, arrivals drive the growth

 Praça do Comércio, Lisbon

Where the market is now

  1. 5

    Permits quadrupled in 2025, a break in Eurostat's series

  2. 6

    In 2025 Portugal issued ten times Spain's rate

  3. 7

    Brazil leads, with four in ten permits

  4. 8

    India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan have risen since 2019

  5. 9

    Routes narrowed, and 574,000 fewer people aged 20 to 64

 A tower crane, Lisbon

The outlook

  1. 10

    At most 60,500 permits in 2026, and falling in 2027

  2. 11

    Origin shares held at 2024; the drivers beside the lines

  3. 11

    What could change this

 Alfama, Lisbon

Method and sources

  1. 12

    How to read this report

  2. 12

    Sources, photographs and flags

Cover: Lisbon at night, the Rossio square and its fountain. Photograph by Maria Eklind, Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.0).

Portugal issued 240,523 first residence permits for work in 2025, four times the 60,553 of 2024. Eurostat marks 2025 as a break in the series; in October 2025 the president of AIMA, the migration agency, said most of its new residence permits of 2025 went to people who had entered Portugal under the expression of interest route, closed on 4 June 2024. Law 61/2025 limited the job seeker visa to skilled work from 23 October 2025. Our estimate holds the count of 2024: at most 60,500 permits in 2026. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is falling. In 2031 the 2024 count held, the upper reading, gives 60,500 a year and open routes only, the level of 2013 to 2016, 6,350, both lines on stated assumptions; without the closures, a scenario, gives 70,200. Brazil received 41.2 percent of the permits of 2025, the seven Werklist sourcing centres 23.6 percent.

Observed

First residence permits for work in 2025, a break in Eurostat's series

240,523
Our estimate

Permits in 2026, at most; between 37,400 and 60,500

60,500
A stated assumption, not a forecast

Permits a year in 2031, the 2024 count held; open routes only 6,350

60,500
Projection of the source

Fewer people aged 20 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026

574,000

11.4 million people, 1.0 million more than in 2015

Portugal has 11.4 million people, 1,028,910 more than in 2015. Deaths have outnumbered births every year since 2019, so the growth comes from migration: net migration added 70,862 people in 2025, after 371,277 in 2022. The economy grew 1.9 percent in 2025, against 1.4 percent across the EU, and GDP per head is 68 percent of the EU average. Eurostat projects 574,000 fewer people aged 20 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026.

The Douro at Porto

People living in Portugal on 1 January 2026

11,424,031

9.9 percent more than in 2015, and 2.5 percent of the EU's 452.0 million. People aged 65 and over were 24.3 percent of the population in 2025.

GDP in 2025, billion euro at current prices

306.7

1.6 percent of the EU economy.

GDP per head in 2025

28,390euro

68 percent of the EU average of 41,700 euro in 2025. Counting lower prices at home, 81 percent, up from 76 percent in 2015.

Real growth in 2025

1.9%

Against 1.4 percent across the EU. Over 2021 to 2025 the economy grew 21.3 percent in all, the EU grew 13.7 percent (our estimate from the yearly rates).

People aged 20 to 64 in work, 2025

79.6%

Against 76.1 percent across the EU.

The EU, Schengen and the euro

1 January 1986Portugal joins what is now the European Union.
26 March 1995Portugal joins the Schengen area; the euro follows on 1 January 1999.

Sources: Eurostat, demo_gind (population, updated 21 July 2026), nama_10_gdp and nama_10_pc (GDP, updated 21 September 2026), tec00114 (price adjusted GDP per head), tec00115 (growth), lfsi_emp_a (employment), demo_pjanbroad (age). All retrieved 27 September 2026. Figures for 2025 GDP, GDP per head and growth are provisional. Key dates: European Union, country profile of Portugal, european-union.europa.eu, retrieved 28 September 2026.

Fewer births than deaths, arrivals drive the growth

Deaths outnumber births every year; net migration peaked at 371,277 in 2022

In 2025, 121,817 people died and 87,764 were born. Net migration added 70,862, so the population grew by 36,809.

Births minus deathsNet migration
0+200,000+400,0002019202020212022202320242025Births minus deathsNet migrationChange in the populationMoved inMoved out−25,264+67,163+41,89995,38228,219−38,866+35,091−3,77583,65425,886−45,259+72,079+26,82097,11925,079−40,690+371,277+330,587167,09830,954−32,645+307,288+274,643189,36733,666−33,754+216,629+182,87533,916−34,053+70,862+36,809

Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (updated 21 July 2026), migr_imm1ctz and migr_emi1ctz (moves of a year or more), retrieved 27 September 2026. Net migration includes Eurostat's statistical adjustment. Not published: moves in for 2024 and 2025, and moves out for 2025.

Eurostat projects 118,000 more people in 2041 than in 2026

Observed to 2026, then Eurostat's 2025 projection, which starts 0.64 million below the observed count: read its change, not its level.

10.2 million10.6 million11.0 million11.4 millionEurostat's projection10.40 million in 201511.42 million in 202610.99 million11.35 million, more migration10.63 million, less migration201520202026203120362041

Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (observed, updated 21 July 2026) and proj_25np (EUROPOP2025, updated 11 June 2026; 10,749,635 on 1 January 2025, against 11,387,222 in demo_gind), retrieved 27 September 2026. The series breaks in 2021 and 2022 (a new census base).

The share aged 65 and over rises to 31%

0 to 1415 to 6465 and over
2025, observed12.6%63.0%24.3%2041, Eurostat's projection12.2%56.3%31.5%

Source: Eurostat, demo_pjanbroad (2025) and proj_25np (2041), retrieved 27 September 2026.

306.7 billion euro in 2025, and the IMF forecast to 2031

Billion euro, 2025 pricesIMF forecast
250300350400306.7 in 2025340.1 in 203120173.3%20192.7%20215.6%20233.1%20251.9%20271.8%20291.7%20311.6%

Real growth under each year: observed to 2025 (Eurostat, tec00115), the IMF forecast after. Sources: Eurostat, nama_10_gdp (2025 provisional); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation; retrieved 27 September 2026.

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What this report answers

  • How many first residence permits for work has Portugal issued each year since 2019?

    240,523 in 2025, four times the 60,553 of 2024, and 34,999 in 2019. Eurostat marks 2025 as a break in the series: most new permits went to people who had entered under the expression of interest route, closed on 4 June 2024.

  • Which countries do the new hires come from?

    Citizens of Brazil received 99,145 permits in 2025, 41.2%, eight times the 12,134 of 2024. India followed with 23,090, Nepal with 16,807 and Bangladesh with 15,992; the seven Werklist sourcing centres received 23.6 percent.

  • How does Portugal compare with the EU and its peers?

    38.5 first residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, ten times Spain's 3.8 and far above the EU's 4.9. In 2024, before the break, the rate was 9.8.

  • How long do the permits run?

    Nearly all run for a year or more: 100.0% of the permits of 2025 are valid for 12 months or more, against 98.9% in 2019.

  • Which rules changed for hiring from abroad?

    Decree Law 37-A/2024 ended residence applied for from inside Portugal on an expression of interest from 4 June 2024, and Law 61/2025 limited the job seeker visa to skilled work from 23 October 2025. A residence visa for work is valid for four months.

  • How is the working age population changing?

    Eurostat projects 6,297,829 people aged 20 to 64 in 2026 and 5,723,468 in 2041, a fall of 9.1 percent, about 574,000 fewer.

  • How many first residence permits for work do we expect Portugal to issue in 2026, and what comes after?

    At most 60,500 in 2026, the count of 2024 held, between 37,400 and 60,500. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is falling. In 2031 the 2024 count held gives 60,500 a year and open routes only 6,350, both stated assumptions; without the closures, a scenario, gives 70,200.

The full report answers each question with its figures, charts and sources. Request the full report