Workforce Migration Report 2026: Poland

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Warsaw at night, the city centre seen across the Vistula
Workforce Migration Report 2026
Poland
318,186
First residence permits for work issued in 2025

Contents

In brief

Poland issued 318,186 first residence permits for work in 2025, 5.8 percent fewer than in 2024 and 60 percent below the peak of 790,070 in 2021: 14.8 for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64, three times the EU rate and the median of its six peers. Citizens of Ukraine and Belarus received 81.3 percent of them. Werklist's seven sourcing centres received 20,853, 6.6 percent. The rules are tightening: since 1 June 2025 a county may close named occupations to new work permits. We expect about 304,000 permits in 2026, between 188,000 and 461,000. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number, and the direction is flat. In 2031 the central line gives 291,000 permits a year and held flat gives 318,000, both lines on stated assumptions, not forecasts; in 2036, 290,000 and 318,000.

Observed

First residence permits for work issued in 2025, down 5.8 percent on 2024

318,186
Our estimate

Permits in 2026, between 188,000 and 461,000

304,000
A stated assumption, not a forecast

Permits a year in 2031, the central line; held flat 318,000

291,000
Projection of the source

Fewer people aged 20 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026

1,330,000

36.3 million people, fewer and older, in a growing economy

36,332,765 people lived in Poland on 1 January 2026, 1,672,849 fewer than in 2015; 884,781 of the fall is in 2020, where Eurostat's figures carry a statistical adjustment. Deaths have outnumbered births in every year since 2019. Counting lower prices at home, GDP per head rose from 70 to 81 percent of the EU average from 2015 to 2025. Eurostat projects 1.33 million fewer people aged 20 to 64 by 2041.

Kraków from the air

People living in Poland on 1 January 2026

36,332,765

4.4 percent fewer than in 2015, and 8.0 percent of the EU's 452.0 million. People aged 65 and over were 21.0 percent of the population in 2025.

GDP in 2025, billion euro at current prices

922.9

4.9 percent of the EU economy.

GDP per head in 2025

24,680euro

59 percent of the EU average of 41,700 euro in 2025. Counting lower prices at home, 81 percent, up from 70 percent in 2015.

Real growth in 2025

3.6%

Against 1.4 percent across the EU. Over 2021 to 2025 the economy grew 20.6 percent in all, the EU grew 13.7 percent (our estimate from the yearly rates).

People aged 20 to 64 in work, 2025

78.8%

Against 76.1 percent across the EU.

The EU and the new act

1 May 2004Poland joins the European Union.
1 June 2025The act on entrusting work to foreigners takes effect.

Sources: Eurostat, demo_gind (population, updated 21 July 2026), nama_10_gdp and nama_10_pc (GDP, updated 21 September 2026), tec00114 (price adjusted GDP per head), tec00115 (growth), lfsi_emp_a (employment), demo_pjanbroad (age). All retrieved 27 September 2026. Figures for 2025 GDP, GDP per head and growth are provisional. Key dates: European Union, country page of Poland; Dz.U. 2025 poz. 621, article 114. Both retrieved 28 September 2026.

Deaths outnumber births, and migration adds little

Deaths have outnumbered births every year since 2019, and net migration was small outside 2020

In 2025, 405,747 people died and 238,264 were born. Net migration added 2,753, so the population fell by 164,730.

Births minus deathsNet migration
−750,000−500,000−250,00002019202020212022202320242025Births minus deathsNet migrationChange in the populationMoved inMoved out−34,755+20,081−14,674226,649180,594−122,046−762,735−884,781210,615161,666−188,006+4,410−183,596241,116201,595−143,316+7,291−136,025275,515228,006−136,585+3,819−132,766303,275194,063−156,722+33,247−123,475300,496205,869−167,483+2,753−164,730

Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (updated 21 July 2026), migr_imm1ctz and migr_emi1ctz (moves of a year or more), retrieved 27 September 2026. Net migration includes Eurostat's statistical adjustment. Not published: moves in and out for 2025.

About 34.49 million people by 2041 on Eurostat's projection

Observed to 2026, then Eurostat's 2025 projection in the lighter line.

32 million34 million36 million38 million40 millionEurostat's projection38.01 million in 201536.33 million in 202634.49 million in 204135.34 million, more migration33.63 million, less migration201520202026203120362041

Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (observed, updated 21 July 2026) and proj_25np (EUROPOP2025 baseline and migration tests, updated 11 June 2026), retrieved 27 September 2026.

The share aged 65 and over rises to 25%

0 to 1415 to 6465 and over
2025, observed14.8%64.2%21.0%2041, Eurostat's projection10.7%64.1%25.3%

Source: Eurostat, demo_pjanbroad (2025) and proj_25np (2041), retrieved 27 September 2026.

922.9 billion euro in 2025, and the IMF forecast to 2031

Billion euro at current prices of 2025IMF forecast
6008001,0001,200922.9 in 20251,079.6 in 203120175.2%20194.6%20216.9%20230.2%20253.6%20272.4%20292.6%20312.5%

Real growth under each year: observed to 2025 (Eurostat, tec00115), the IMF forecast after. Sources: Eurostat, nama_10_gdp (2025 provisional); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation: the other years are the 2025 value moved by the real growth rates; retrieved 27 September 2026.

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What this report answers

  • How many first residence permits for work has Poland issued each year since 2019?

    318,186 in 2025, 5.8% fewer than the 337,874 of 2024 and 60 percent below the peak of 790,070 in 2021. In 2019 Poland issued 625,120.

  • Which countries do the new hires come from?

    Citizens of Ukraine received 186,943 permits in 2025 and citizens of Belarus 71,541, together 81.3%. Colombia rose to 3,967 from 1,593, and Werklist's seven sourcing centres received 20,853, 6.6 percent, India 5,385 of them.

  • How does Poland compare with the EU and its peers?

    14.8 first residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, three times the EU's 4.9 and 4.8, the median of its six peers. Only Croatia issued more, 21.1; Poland peaked at 35.0 in 2021.

  • How long do the permits run?

    44.8% of the permits of 2025 run for 12 months or more, up from 9.1% in 2019; 52.4% run for 6 to 11 months.

  • How does the work permit differ from a first residence permit for work?

    A voivode issues the work permit to the employer before the worker applies for a visa or a residence permit: 251,525 work permits in 2025, against 318,186 first residence permits for work in Eurostat's count.

  • Which rules apply to employers who hire from abroad?

    Since 1 June 2025 a voivode issues the work permit for at most three years, only if the pay reaches the minimum wage, and a county may close named occupations to new work permits. A consulate decides on a visa for work within 15 days.

  • How is the working age population changing?

    Eurostat projects 21,900,747 people aged 20 to 64 in 2026 and 20,575,549 in 2041, a fall of 6.1 percent, about 1,330,000 fewer.

  • How many first residence permits for work do we expect Poland to issue in 2026, and what comes after?

    About 304,000 in 2026, between 188,000 and 461,000. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is flat. In 2031 the central line gives 291,000 a year and held flat 318,000, both lines on stated assumptions, not forecasts.

The full report answers each question with its figures, charts and sources. Request the full report