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Contents
In brief

The country
- 3
29.6 million people, remittances worth a quarter of GDP
- 4
Departures now outweigh the surplus of births

Going abroad for work
- 5
Over 400,000 labour approvals a year since 2022/23
- 6
Japan ranks first for citizens of Nepal, then Kuwait and Croatia
- 7
Romania rose every year after 2020; Croatia fell in 2025
- 8
Per working age resident, Nepal is 36 times India
- 9
No one leaves for a job abroad without a labour approval

The outlook
- 10
About 53,100 permits in 2026, three scenarios from 2028
- 11
Romania tightens, Portugal reverses, Croatia and Cyprus hold
- 11
What could change this

Method and sources
- 12
How to read this report
- 12
Sources, photographs and flags
Cover: Boudhanath stupa in Kathmandu at night. Photograph by Ashish Ghimire, Pexels.
Citizens of Nepal received 71,061 first EU residence permits for work in 2025, 40.8 percent more than in 2024; without Portugal's one off count, 54,254 against 47,297. Europe took 14.7 percent of Nepal's labour approvals in the first 11 months of FY 2025/26, up from 8.69 percent. Government Decision 1169 of 30 December 2025 cut the 2026 quota of Romania, the largest EU destination, to 90,000 work authorisations, which caps its first permits at about 54,800 a year, and the Court of Appeal Bucharest suspended its shortage list on 10 September 2026. Our estimate is 53,100 permits in 2026 (32,800 to 80,400), lower because Portugal's one off count drops out, Croatia issues fewer and Romania is held at its cap. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is flat. From 2028 we give four scenarios, not forecasts: in 2031 they run from 54,000 (open routes in Portugal) to 64,200 (quota lifted in Romania).
First EU residence permits for work in 2025: up 40.8 percent on 2024
Permits in 2026, our estimate, between 32,800 and 80,400
Permits a year from 2027 to 2031: the range is too wide for a yearly number
Europe in the register, FY 2025/26, first 11 months
29.6 million people, remittances worth a quarter of GDP
Nepal has 29.6 million people, 1,794,489 more than in 2015. Births still outnumber deaths, but since 2022 more people leave than arrive, and the total has edged down from 29.7 million. Output per head, 1,536 US dollars, is 11 percent of the world average, growth was 4.4 percent in 2025, and the working age population keeps growing.

People living in Nepal in 2025, mid year
6.4 percent more than in 2015. People aged 15 to 64 were 65.3 percent of the population in 2025.
Median age in 2025
Half the population is younger. Our estimate from the World Bank's five year age groups.
GDP per head in 2025
11 percent of the world average of 14,406 US dollars in 2025.
The minimum wage a month, 2025
19,550 NPR a month, at 159.66 NPR to the euro.
Money sent home by people working abroad, share of GDP, 2024
Against 0.8 percent across the world.
Two changes to the labour approval
Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators (population, GDP per head, personal remittances received as a share of GDP) and population estimates and projections (five year age groups, for our median age), retrieved 27 September 2026. Wage: Ministry of Labour, Employment and Social Security, Nepal (Nepal Gazette notice), as summarised by Pioneer Law Associates, Minimum Remuneration/Wages, 2025 (2082), retrieved 27 September 2026. Key dates: Ministry of Labour, Employment and Social Security, Nepal Labour Migration Report 2024, section 2.5.1, retrieved 27 September 2026.
Departures now outweigh the surplus of births
Births exceed deaths by 350,000 to 390,000 a year, but since 2022 net departures are larger
In 2024, births minus deaths came to +355,516 and net migration to −401,282, so on the crude rates (our arithmetic) the population fell by 45,766.
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (net migration and crude birth and death rates from UN World Population Prospects 2024, whose estimates end in 2023; later years are its projection), retrieved 27 September 2026. Births minus deaths is our arithmetic on the crude rates. Not yet published: births minus deaths for 2025.
About 33.11 million people by 2041 on the World Bank's projection
Estimated to 2025, then the World Bank's projection in the lighter line.
Source: World Bank, SP.POP.TOTL (World Development Indicators); World Bank, population projection based on UN World Population Prospects 2024; retrieved 27 September 2026.
The share aged 65 and over rises to 8.8% by 2041
Source: World Bank, population estimates and projections, retrieved 27 September 2026.
45.5 billion US dollars in 2025, and the IMF forecast to 2031
Real growth under each year: observed to 2025 (World Bank), the IMF forecast after. Sources: World Bank, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD (2025); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation: the other years are the 2025 value moved by the real growth rates; retrieved 27 September 2026.
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ReportsOver 400,000 labour approvals a year since 2022/23
505,957 in FY 2024/25, then a fifth fewer in FY 2025/26
Sources: Ministry of Labour, Employment and Social Security, Nepal, Nepal Labour Migration Report 2022, Table 3.2 (FY 2018/19 to 2021/22) and 2024, Table 3.1 (FY 2022/23 and 2023/24); Nepal Rastra Bank, Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal, annual data of 2024/25, paragraph 40, and of 2025/26, paragraph 39 (FY 2025/26 provisional); retrieved 27 September 2026. New approvals only.
Nepal issued 406,414 new labour approvals in FY 2025/26 and 505,957 the year before. Most go to the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia and Saudi Arabia; Europe took 14.7 percent in the first 11 months of FY 2025/26, up from 8.69 percent in FY 2024/25.
Four Gulf states and Malaysia took 77.3%
The five largest destinations of the labour approvals of FY 2023/24.
53,951 approvals to 24 European countries, 24,767 for Romania; 8.69 percent in FY 2024/25.
Sources: Nepal Labour Migration Report 2024 (final, 11 Nov 2025), Table 3.1 (the bars); Department of Foreign Employment via the Kathmandu Post, 16 July 2026 (Europe); retrieved 27 September 2026.
What the register counts, and what it does not
Counted: New labour approvals under the Foreign Employment Act 2007: the permission the Department of Foreign Employment gives before a citizen leaves for a job abroad, by fiscal year from mid July. Renewals for the same employer are counted apart.
Not counted: Departures to India, which need no approval, and many doctors and nurses who leave without one. Europe is counted as a group of 24 countries in the department's latest release.
Japan ranks first for citizens of Nepal, then Kuwait and Croatia
We rank destinations for citizens of Nepal by the ease of entry for them first, then by the size of their flow. All ten below are in grade 1, the easiest of five. Romania, which issued 24,486 of their 71,061 first EU residence permits for work in 2025, ranks 15th, in grade 2.
| Place and destination | Size, Werklist estimate 2027 to 2031 | Ease, share of the full score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 123,000 | 98.0% |
| 2 | 108,000 | 97.5% |
| 3 | 36,000 | 85.0% |
| 4 | 29,000 | 96.9% |
| 5 | 25,300 | 93.2% |
| 6 | 17,500 | 93.0% |
| 7 | 10,800 | 85.6% |
| 8 | 4,130 | 86.3% |
| 9 | not reported | 97.5% |
| 10 | not reported | 95.0% |
Source: Werklist ranking of destinations by corridor, run 2026.1-rk-15d, 29 September 2026, from the country records of edition 2026.1 and the arrivals of the latest year (Eurostat, migr_resfirst, 2025; Department of Foreign Employment, Nepal, labour approvals by country, FY 2025/26; Immigration Services Agency of Japan, new entries on a working status of residence, 2025). Size: the Werklist estimate of each destination for 2027 to 2031 together, in the unit of its own count, times the share of citizens of Nepal in that count, rounded to three significant figures; not known, and printed as not reported, where the record holds no share (the United Arab Emirates) or no line (Saudi Arabia).
Ease of entry first, then the size of the flow
Each destination is graded 1 to 5 on a score out of 100 for citizens of Nepal: admission, where they file, the approval at home, the labour market test and the decision time, and the arrivals of the latest year. Within a grade the larger flow ranks first.
The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, the largest destinations in the register, rank last in grade 1: their size is not known. Malaysia is not graded, as its admission rules were not read at a source, and ranks 55th. Romania is 15th, in grade 2: admission within its quota, filing at its embassy in New Delhi and an extra step in the approval at home. Portugal is 27th, in grade 3: its permits of 2024 mostly settled the papers of people already in the country.
Source: Werklist ranking of destinations by corridor, run 2026.1-rk-15d, 29 September 2026.
6.3 times the 2019 number, higher every year since 2020
First EU residence permits for work issued to citizens of Nepal, by year, with the change on the year before.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons in the 27 EU countries to citizens of Nepal, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
Romania rose every year after 2020; Croatia fell in 2025
Romania issued a third of Nepal's first EU residence permits for work in 2025
Croatia issued the most from 2021 to 2024, then fell from 17,428 to 10,300 in 2025, while Romania rose every year from 1,420 in 2020 to 24,486. Portugal's 16,807 of 2025 is a break in the series: it settles the papers of people already in Portugal, against 3,186 in 2024.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons in the 27 EU countries to citizens of Nepal, by country of issue, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 29 September 2026; the totals of the seven centres: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, EU27, 2025, updated 28 September 2026, retrieved 29 September 2026.
Among the seven sourcing centres of Werklist, Nepal's 71,061 first EU residence permits for work in 2025 came second to India's 101,573, ahead of the Philippines 50,944, Bangladesh 29,626, Uzbekistan 22,928, Vietnam 14,794 and Indonesia 6,239.
| Destination | 2019 | 2024 | 2025 | Share 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,713 | 15,255 | 24,486 | 34.5% | |
| 2,764 | 3,186 | 16,807 | 23.7% | |
| 825 | 17,428 | 10,300 | 14.5% | |
| 1,621 | 5,886 | 7,483 | 10.5% | |
| 1,402 | 2,328 | 3,082 | 4.3% | |
| 1,301 | 2,545 | 2,855 | 4.0% | |
| 0 | 1,097 | 2,183 | 3.1% | |
| 4 | 721 | 875 | 1.2% | |
| Other EU countries | 1,650 | 2,037 | 2,990 | 4.2% |
| All EU countries | 11,280 | 50,483 | 71,061 | 100.0% |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons in the 27 EU countries to citizens of Nepal, by country of issue, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 29 September 2026; the totals of the seven centres: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, EU27, 2025, updated 28 September 2026, retrieved 29 September 2026.
Per working age resident, Nepal is 36 times India
First EU residence permits for work per 100,000 residents aged 15 to 64
The first residence permits for work that the 27 EU countries issue in a year to citizens of a country, divided by that country's residents aged 15 to 64. Both lines use the same two sources.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst (first residence permits for employment in the EU27, by citizenship), updated 11 September 2026; World Bank, SP.POP.1564.TO (residents aged 15 to 64); reference years 2019 to 2025, retrieved 27 September 2026. Werklist calculation.
Nepal, 2025
Up from 63.0 in 2019.
India, 2025
Up from 5.5 in 2019.
Measured against residents aged 15 to 64, citizens of Nepal receive far more first EU residence permits for work than citizens of India: 367.3 for every 100,000 in 2025 against 10.1. Nepal's rate more than doubled in 2022, to 157.3, and rose every year after. India's also stepped up in 2022, from 5.1 to 9.1, dipped to 8.5 in 2024 and reached 10.1 in 2025. The data show when the rates moved, not why.
Agreements with European countries
Sources: Ministry of Labour, Employment and Social Security, Nepal, Nepal Labour Migration Report 2024 (final, 11 November 2025), Table 2.7 and section 2.6; Peoples' Review, 16 February 2026, and the Kathmandu Post, 16 July 2026, on the proposals; retrieved 27 September 2026.
No one leaves for a job abroad without a labour approval
The rules at home, as they stand on 27 September 2026
Under the Foreign Employment Act 2007, as amended in 2019, nobody leaves for a job abroad without a labour approval from the Department of Foreign Employment, issued after the visa.
Since 2019 an agency deposits by volume: 20 million rupees up to 3,000 a year, 40 million to 5,000, 60 million above; 1,040 were active in August 2025.
The government may cap the fee an agency collects from each applicant; the ministry says Nepal follows the principle that employers pay recruitment costs.
Everyone leaving must take orientation training at a centre the department licenses; the course lasts two days, and 143 centres give it.
Insurance of at least the Act's minimum of 500,000 rupees, with policies now covering up to 2 million; 1,500 rupees into the welfare fund, or 2,500 over three years.
The employer's demand letter must be certified in the destination; since April 2022, going alone to Croatia, Poland, Romania and five others needs extra authentication.
Agencies may recruit for 111 approved countries; Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya are closed for now, and sending a minor abroad for work is banned.
Sources: Foreign Employment Act 2064 (2007), as amended in 2019, sections 7, 10, 11, 15, 19, 21, 24, 26 to 28 and 32, English text published by the Department of Foreign Employment; Ministry of Labour, Employment and Social Security, Nepal, Nepal Labour Migration Report 2022, section 2.2.1 (the 2019 deposit tiers), and Nepal Labour Migration Report 2024 (final, 11 November 2025), sections 2.2.1, 2.3, 2.5.1, 3.4 and 4.1; retrieved 27 September 2026.
Where the visa is issued
For the largest EU destinations of citizens of Nepal, the embassy or visa centre that takes the application, and its city.
Sources: embassies of Romania and Portugal in New Delhi; Embassy of Croatia in New Delhi, VFS Global precondition document (February 2025); read 27 September 2026.
Unemployment among people aged 15 to 24, 2025, against 13.4 percent across the world
One in five young people looking for work at home has none, against about one in eight worldwide.
World Bank, World Development Indicators, last updated 13 July 2026 (SL.UEM.1524.ZS)
The minimum wage in Romania against the minimum wage at home
A month at Romania's minimum wage equals almost seven months at Nepal's minimum wage.
Eurostat, earn_mw_cur (Romania, second half of 2026, 825 euro a month); the wage at home as on page 3
More people aged 15 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026, on the World Bank's projection
Fifteen years of growth add 3.46 million people of working age, so the pool of candidates keeps growing.
World Bank, SP.POP.1564.TO, retrieved 27 September 2026
About 53,100 permits in 2026, three scenarios from 2028
We expect about 53,100 permits in 2026, between 32,800 and 80,400: Portugal returns to its 2024 share and Croatia issues fewer. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is flat. From 2028 we give one line held flat, a stated assumption, and three scenarios, not forecasts. Romania's quota caps its part at about 22,100 a year, against 24,486 in 2025 (Government Decision 1169 of 30 December 2025); the suspension of its shortage list (Court of Appeal Bucharest, 10 September 2026) would lower 2027 only.
Permits in 2026, our estimate
between 32,800 and 80,400
Permits a year from 2027 to 2031, the direction
Too wide for a yearly number; the scenarios give 54,000 to 64,200 in 2031, held flat 54,200
Direction of the rules and of the count
Three scenarios give 54,000 to 64,200 permits a year in 2031, held flat 54,200
Permits issued to 2025, then our estimate with its range for 2026; 2027 as a direction, flat; from 2028 one line held flat, a stated assumption, and three scenarios in grey, not forecasts. Held flat stands at 54,200, not 71,061: Croatia at its 2026 count to August, Portugal at its 2024 share. Court suspension in Romania, a fourth scenario, lowers 2027 only and is not drawn.
Source: Werklist estimate from Eurostat migr_resfirst (reference years to 2025, updated 11 September 2026); 2027: a direction, as its range is too wide for a yearly number. From 2028: held flat, a stated assumption, each destination at its 2026 base (the 2025 count; Croatia at the 2026 pace of the Ministry of the Interior, 44,646 to 31 August; Portugal at its 2024 share). Scenarios: sum of the destinations, the central lines of the EU destinations at the 2025 shares of their permits; open routes in Portugal, Portugal at 663 a year, the mean of 2013 to 2016; quota lifted in Romania, as if the quota stayed at 100,000 (Emergency Ordinance 32/2026); court suspension in Romania, not drawn, as it lowers 2027 only. Retrieved 27 September 2026. Values rounded to three significant figures; Low and High give the range of 2026.
Romania tightens, Portugal reverses, Croatia and Cyprus hold
Romania tightens, Portugal reverses, two hold
The rules of the largest EU destinations, the instrument behind them, and their first EU residence permits for work issued to citizens of Nepal from 2024 to 2025.
Government Decision 1169 of 30 December 2025 cut the 2026 quota to 90,000 work authorisations. The Court of Appeal Bucharest suspended the shortage list on 10 September 2026.
Decree-Law 37-A/2024 closed the expression of interest from 4 June 2024; Law 61/2025 the job seeker visa from 23 October 2025.
Narodne novine 55/2026, from 4 June 2026: employers keep 20 percent Croatian or EEA staff. Permits to Nepalis: 17,428 to 10,300 in 2025.
Council of Ministers strategy of 15 October 2021, in force 2 January 2022: no labour market check above 2,500 euro a month.
Sources: the instruments named, as in our country records of edition 2026.1; Eurostat, migr_resfirst; read 27 September 2026.
The count follows the EU destinations, not supply
Only the lines of the EU destinations enter the estimate; the rest is context.
3.46 million more people aged 15 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026.
401,282 more people left than arrived in 2024, on the UN estimate.
Real GDP 3.0 percent projected for 2026, 4.6 for 2027; youth jobless 20.6 percent.
Flat to 2031; Romania held at its quota cap, Bulgaria and Cyprus rising most in the scenarios.
406,414 approvals in FY 2025/26, a fifth fewer; a fiscal year, so no ratio to Eurostat.
Sources: World Bank, SP.POP.1564.TO, SM.POP.NETM (UN World Population Prospects 2024) and SL.UEM.1524.ZS; IMF, World Economic Outlook, as served on 27 September 2026; Nepal Rastra Bank and the Kathmandu Post, 16 July 2026 (approvals); Werklist destination lines from Eurostat migr_resfirst; retrieved 27 September 2026.
What could change this
The scenarios carry three dated changes, one card each. Nepal's draft labour agreements with EU states, none reported signed by July 2026, are not in the estimate.
Romania's quota, Government Decision 1169
At the quota of 90,000 work authorisations set on 30 December 2025, Romania's first permits are capped at about 54,800 a year, 0.61 per authorisation as in 2025. The sum of the destinations carries the cap, 56,500 in 2031; quota lifted in Romania, a scenario, gives 64,200.
Court of Appeal Bucharest, 10 September 2026
The court suspended Romania's shortage list, so employers cannot file applications for the long stay visa for work. No source sizes it, so our estimate leaves it out. Held to the end of 2026, it would lower the permits of 2027, a year we give as a direction only.
Portugal's Decree-Law 37-A/2024
From 4 June 2024 it closed residence on an expression of interest, and Law 61/2025 the job seeker visa. No count sizes them, so the estimate keeps Portugal at its 2024 share; open routes in Portugal, a scenario, holds it at 663 a year: 54,000 in 2031 against 56,500 for the sum of the destinations.
How to read this report
What a first EU residence permit for work is
The first residence permit for employment reasons in Eurostat's count: valid three months or more, issued by an EU country to a citizen of Nepal for work. It gathers the single permit for residence and work, the EU Blue Card, permits for seasonal work and each country's other permits for work. Renewals are not counted.
What the range and the scenarios mean
Our estimate gives a yearly number with a low and a high end for 2026 only. For 2027 its range is too wide, so we give the direction, flat. From 2028 we give one line held flat, a stated assumption, and three scenarios, not forecasts. Observed numbers are solid lines, the estimate and the scenarios dashed.
How the estimate is made
We add up the EU countries that issue the permits: each destination's line times Nepal's share of its permits in 2025, Portugal at its 2024 share: 53,100 in 2026. From 2028 this sum is one scenario; held flat keeps each base, open routes in Portugal holds Portugal at 663 a year, quota lifted in Romania takes out Romania's cut.
Numbers, dates and words
Past counts are printed exactly; estimates are rounded to three significant figures. The national register counts labour approvals, Eurostat counts first EU residence permits for work: they are two different counts. Permits are counted, not people; people appear only where we speak of the population.
Sources
Every source retrieved 27 September 2026; the ranking of destinations and the 2025 totals of the seven centres on 29 September 2026.
- Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits by reason, length of validity and citizenship, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ migr_resfirst - World Bank, World Development Indicators and population estimates and projections (population, age, births, deaths, net migration, GDP, employment, unemployment). data.worldbank.org
- Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship and country of issue. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ migr_resfirst - International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026, real GDP growth. imf.org/
external/ datamapper - World Bank, personal remittances received as a share of GDP (BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS), unemployment aged 15 to 24 (SL.UEM.1524.ZS, ILO estimate), population by five year age group. data.worldbank.org
- Eurostat, earn_mw_cur, monthly minimum wages. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ earn_mw_cur - Nepal Rastra Bank, Current Macroeconomic and Financial Situation of Nepal, annual data of 2024/25 (paragraph 40) and 2025/26 (paragraph 39). www.nrb.org.np
- Ministry of Labour, Employment and Social Security, Nepal, minimum wage from 17 July 2025 (Nepal Gazette notice), as summarised by Pioneer Law Associates. pioneerlaw.com
- Department of Foreign Employment, Nepal, Foreign Employment Act 2064 (2007), English text. dofe.gov.np
- Ministry of Labour, Employment and Social Security, Nepal, Nepal Labour Migration Report 2022, and 2024 (final, 11 November 2025). moless.gov.np
- Embassies of Romania and Portugal in New Delhi; VFS Global for Croatia, visa pages and the Croatian visa precondition document of February 2025. newdelhi.mae.ro
- Portugal, Decree-Law 37-A/2024, in force 4 June 2024, Law 61/2025 of 22 October 2025 and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs visa portal. diariodarepublica.pt
- Government and Ministry of Labour of Romania, Government Decision 1169 of 30 December 2025 on the 2026 quota and Emergency Ordinance 32/2026 of 27 April 2026, as in our country record; release of 15 September 2026 on the suspension of the shortage list by the Court of Appeal Bucharest. legislatie.just.ro
- Department of Foreign Employment, Nepal, labour approvals to Europe, FY 2024/25 and the first 11 months of FY 2025/26, as reported by the Kathmandu Post, 16 July 2026; proposals for labour agreements, as reported by Peoples' Review, 16 February 2026, and the Kathmandu Post, 16 July 2026. kathmandupost.com
- Croatia, Narodne novine 55/2026, amendments to the Foreigners Act, in force 4 June 2026. narodne-novine.nn.hr
- Department of Foreign Employment, Nepal; Immigration Services Agency of Japan, approvals by country, FY 2025/26; new entries, 2025 (the ranking). dofe.gov.np, e-stat.go.jp
Photographs and flags
Pexels: Boudhanath at night, Ashish Ghimire (cover); Machhapuchhre at sunset, Muyu Yao (page 3); Patan Durbar Square, Volker Meyer; Kathmandu from above, Muyu Yao; Phewa Lake, Pokhara, Rashed Hossain; Bhaktapur Durbar Square, Roman Saienko; Kathmandu Valley at sunset, Volker Meyer (back cover). Flags: circle-flags by HatScripts, MIT licence.
What this report answers
How many first EU residence permits for work went to citizens of Nepal each year since 2019?
71,061 in 2025, up from 50,483 in 2024 and 11,280 in 2019: 6.3 times the 2019 number, and higher every year since 2020.
Which EU countries issue the most of them, and which are growing?
Romania issued 24,486 in 2025, a third of the total, ahead of Portugal with 16,807 and Croatia with 10,300. Romania has risen every year since 2020, Croatia fell from 17,428 in 2024, and in the scenarios Bulgaria and Cyprus rise most.
How many labour approvals does Nepal give, and how many are for Europe?
406,414 new labour approvals in FY 2025/26, after 505,957 the year before. Europe took 14.7% in the first 11 months of FY 2025/26, 24,767 of them for Romania, up from 8.69% in FY 2024/25.
What rules apply at home before a worker from Nepal can leave?
Nobody leaves for a job abroad without a labour approval from the Department of Foreign Employment, issued after the visa, along with two days of orientation training, insurance and a payment into the welfare fund. Since April 2022, going alone to Croatia, Poland or Romania needs extra authentication.
How are the rules changing in the main destinations?
Romania tightens, Portugal reverses, Croatia and Cyprus hold. Romania cut its 2026 quota to 90,000 work authorisations and a court suspended its shortage list, Portugal closed two routes, and Croatia now asks employers to keep 20 percent Croatian or EEA staff.
How many first EU residence permits for work do we expect in 2026, and what comes after?
About 53,100 in 2026, between 32,800 and 80,400, fewer than in 2025 as Portugal's one off count drops out. For 2027 the direction is flat. In 2031 held flat, a stated assumption, gives 54,200; three scenarios, not forecasts, run from 54,000 (open routes in Portugal) to 64,200 (quota lifted in Romania).
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