Workforce Migration Report 2026: Nepal

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Boudhanath stupa in Kathmandu at night
Workforce Migration Report 2026
Nepal
71,061
First EU residence permits for work issued to citizens of Nepal in 2025

Contents

In brief

Citizens of Nepal received 71,061 first EU residence permits for work in 2025, 40.8 percent more than in 2024; without Portugal's one off count, 54,254 against 47,297. Europe took 14.7 percent of Nepal's labour approvals in the first 11 months of FY 2025/26, up from 8.69 percent. Government Decision 1169 of 30 December 2025 cut the 2026 quota of Romania, the largest EU destination, to 90,000 work authorisations, which caps its first permits at about 54,800 a year, and the Court of Appeal Bucharest suspended its shortage list on 10 September 2026. Our estimate is 53,100 permits in 2026 (32,800 to 80,400), lower because Portugal's one off count drops out, Croatia issues fewer and Romania is held at its cap. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is flat. From 2028 we give four scenarios, not forecasts: in 2031 they run from 54,000 (open routes in Portugal) to 64,200 (quota lifted in Romania).

Observed

First EU residence permits for work in 2025: up 40.8 percent on 2024

71,061
Our estimate

Permits in 2026, our estimate, between 32,800 and 80,400

53,100
Our estimate

Permits a year from 2027 to 2031: the range is too wide for a yearly number

Flat
Observed

Europe in the register, FY 2025/26, first 11 months

14.7%

29.6 million people, remittances worth a quarter of GDP

Nepal has 29.6 million people, 1,794,489 more than in 2015. Births still outnumber deaths, but since 2022 more people leave than arrive, and the total has edged down from 29.7 million. Output per head, 1,536 US dollars, is 11 percent of the world average, growth was 4.4 percent in 2025, and the working age population keeps growing.

Machhapuchhre at sunset

People living in Nepal in 2025, mid year

29,618,118

6.4 percent more than in 2015. People aged 15 to 64 were 65.3 percent of the population in 2025.

Median age in 2025

26.4years

Half the population is younger. Our estimate from the World Bank's five year age groups.

GDP per head in 2025

1,536dollars

11 percent of the world average of 14,406 US dollars in 2025.

The minimum wage a month, 2025

122euro

19,550 NPR a month, at 159.66 NPR to the euro.

Money sent home by people working abroad, share of GDP, 2024

26.0%

Against 0.8 percent across the world.

Two changes to the labour approval

April 2022Going alone to Croatia, Poland or Romania needs extra authentication.
March 2023Approvals now cover the whole contract, not two years.

Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators (population, GDP per head, personal remittances received as a share of GDP) and population estimates and projections (five year age groups, for our median age), retrieved 27 September 2026. Wage: Ministry of Labour, Employment and Social Security, Nepal (Nepal Gazette notice), as summarised by Pioneer Law Associates, Minimum Remuneration/Wages, 2025 (2082), retrieved 27 September 2026. Key dates: Ministry of Labour, Employment and Social Security, Nepal Labour Migration Report 2024, section 2.5.1, retrieved 27 September 2026.

Departures now outweigh the surplus of births

Births exceed deaths by 350,000 to 390,000 a year, but since 2022 net departures are larger

In 2024, births minus deaths came to +355,516 and net migration to −401,282, so on the crude rates (our arithmetic) the population fell by 45,766.

Births minus deathsNet migration
−250,0000+250,000+500,0002019202020212022202320242025Births minus deathsNet migration+387,113+182,203+373,553+162,139+351,165+130,001+379,020−379,321+368,451−409,782+355,516−401,282−364,699

Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (net migration and crude birth and death rates from UN World Population Prospects 2024, whose estimates end in 2023; later years are its projection), retrieved 27 September 2026. Births minus deaths is our arithmetic on the crude rates. Not yet published: births minus deaths for 2025.

About 33.11 million people by 2041 on the World Bank's projection

Estimated to 2025, then the World Bank's projection in the lighter line.

26 million28 million30 million32 million34 millionWorld Bank projection27.82 million in 201529.62 million in 202533.11 million in 2041201520202025203120362041

Source: World Bank, SP.POP.TOTL (World Development Indicators); World Bank, population projection based on UN World Population Prospects 2024; retrieved 27 September 2026.

The share aged 65 and over rises to 8.8% by 2041

0 to 1415 to 6465 and over
2025, observed28.1%65.3%6.6%2041, the World Bank's projection22.1%69.1%8.8%

Source: World Bank, population estimates and projections, retrieved 27 September 2026.

45.5 billion US dollars in 2025, and the IMF forecast to 2031

Billion US dollars at current prices of 2025IMF forecast
304050607045.5 in 202559.8 in 203120179.0%20196.7%20214.8%20232.0%20254.4%20274.6%20295.1%20315.0%

Real growth under each year: observed to 2025 (World Bank), the IMF forecast after. Sources: World Bank, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD (2025); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation: the other years are the 2025 value moved by the real growth rates; retrieved 27 September 2026.

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What this report answers

  • How many first EU residence permits for work went to citizens of Nepal each year since 2019?

    71,061 in 2025, up from 50,483 in 2024 and 11,280 in 2019: 6.3 times the 2019 number, and higher every year since 2020.

  • Which EU countries issue the most of them, and which are growing?

    Romania issued 24,486 in 2025, a third of the total, ahead of Portugal with 16,807 and Croatia with 10,300. Romania has risen every year since 2020, Croatia fell from 17,428 in 2024, and in the scenarios Bulgaria and Cyprus rise most.

  • How many labour approvals does Nepal give, and how many are for Europe?

    406,414 new labour approvals in FY 2025/26, after 505,957 the year before. Europe took 14.7% in the first 11 months of FY 2025/26, 24,767 of them for Romania, up from 8.69% in FY 2024/25.

  • What rules apply at home before a worker from Nepal can leave?

    Nobody leaves for a job abroad without a labour approval from the Department of Foreign Employment, issued after the visa, along with two days of orientation training, insurance and a payment into the welfare fund. Since April 2022, going alone to Croatia, Poland or Romania needs extra authentication.

  • How are the rules changing in the main destinations?

    Romania tightens, Portugal reverses, Croatia and Cyprus hold. Romania cut its 2026 quota to 90,000 work authorisations and a court suspended its shortage list, Portugal closed two routes, and Croatia now asks employers to keep 20 percent Croatian or EEA staff.

  • How many first EU residence permits for work do we expect in 2026, and what comes after?

    About 53,100 in 2026, between 32,800 and 80,400, fewer than in 2025 as Portugal's one off count drops out. For 2027 the direction is flat. In 2031 held flat, a stated assumption, gives 54,200; three scenarios, not forecasts, run from 54,000 (open routes in Portugal) to 64,200 (quota lifted in Romania).

The full report answers each question with its figures, charts and sources. Request the full report