Workforce Migration Report 2026: Italy

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Rome, the Colosseum
Workforce Migration Report 2026
Italy
57,362
First residence permits for work issued in 2025

Contents

In brief

Italy issued 57,362 first residence permits for work to citizens of countries outside the EU in 2025, 46.7 percent more than in 2024; the highs of 2021 and 2022 came from the regularisation of 2020. For its size Italy still issues few: 1.7 for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64, against 4.9 across the EU. India was the largest origin, with 23.7 percent. The rules are opening and the count rose in 2025, but the decree of 2 October 2025 sets about the same number of places each year to 2028: 164,850 in 2026 and 166,850 in 2028. We expect about 57,300 permits in 2026; for 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number, and the direction is flat. The decree sets places for work clearances, not permits. At 0.35 permits per place (the highest ratio of 2023 to 2025, our arithmetic), the places cap the central line, a line on stated assumptions, at about 58,000 a year in 2031 and 2036, until a new decree sets other places.

Observed

First residence permits for work in 2025, up 46.7 percent on 2024

57,362
Our estimate

Permits in 2026, between 35,400 and 86,900

57,300
A line on stated assumptions

Permits a year in 2031, central line; held flat 57,300, places raised 133,000

58,000
Projection of the source

Fewer people aged 20 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026, on Eurostat's 2025 projection

3,780,000

58.9 million people, 1.35 million fewer than in 2015, and older

Italy has 58.9 million people, 1,352,669 fewer than in 2015. Deaths have outnumbered births in every year since 2019, and since 2022 net migration has nearly closed the gap: in 2025 the population fell by only 636. Output per head is 92 percent of the EU average, growth was 0.5 percent in 2025, and Eurostat projects 11.0 percent fewer people aged 20 to 64 by 2041.

Central Rome

People living in Italy on 1 January 2026

58,942,828

2.2 percent fewer than in 2015, and 13.0 percent of the EU's 452.0 million. People aged 65 and over were 24.7 percent of the population in 2025.

GDP in 2025, billion euro at current prices

2,258.0

12.0 percent of the EU economy.

GDP per head in 2025

38,310euro

92 percent of the EU average of 41,700 euro in 2025. Counting lower prices at home, 96 percent, down from 97 percent in 2015.

Real growth in 2025

0.5%

Against 1.4 percent across the EU. Over 2021 to 2025 the economy grew 16.7 percent in all, the EU grew 13.7 percent (our estimate from the yearly rates).

People aged 20 to 64 in work, 2025

67.6%

Against 76.1 percent across the EU.

The decree for 2026 to 2028

15 October 2025The decree is published: 497,550 entries over three years.
12 January 2026The first applications of the 2026 quota open, for farm seasonal jobs.

Sources: Eurostat, demo_gind (population, updated 21 July 2026), nama_10_gdp and nama_10_pc (GDP, updated 21 September 2026), tec00114 (price adjusted GDP per head), tec00115 (growth), lfsi_emp_a (employment), demo_pjanbroad (age). All retrieved 27 September 2026. Figures for 2025 GDP, GDP per head and growth are provisional. Key dates: Gazzetta Ufficiale 240 of 15 October 2025, decree of 2 October 2025, articles 5 and 8, retrieved 27 September 2026.

More deaths than births, arrivals nearly fill the gap

In 2025 net migration nearly matched the 296,395 more deaths than births

In 2025, 651,830 people died and 355,435 were born. Net migration added 295,759, so the population fell by 636.

Births minus deathsNet migration
−200,0000+200,000+400,0002019202020212022202320242025Births minus deathsNet migrationChange in the populationMoved inMoved out−214,333+39,148−175,185332,778179,505−335,425−69,850−405,275247,526159,884−301,097+95,017−206,080318,366158,312−321,744+288,812−32,932410,985150,189−291,175+265,204−25,971439,658158,438−283,165+255,399−27,766451,583188,903−296,395+295,759−636

Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (updated 21 July 2026), migr_imm1ctz and migr_emi1ctz (moves of a year or more), retrieved 27 September 2026. Net migration includes Eurostat's statistical adjustment. Not published: moves in and out for 2025.

About 57.50 million people by 2041 on Eurostat's projection

Observed to 2026, then Eurostat's 2025 projection in the lighter line.

56 million58 million60 million62 millionEurostat's projection60.30 million in 201558.94 million in 202657.50 million in 204158.68 million, more migration56.33 million, less migration201520202026203120362041

Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (observed, updated 21 July 2026) and proj_25np (EUROPOP2025 baseline and migration tests, updated 11 June 2026), retrieved 27 September 2026.

The share aged 65 and over rises to 33%

0 to 1415 to 6465 and over
2025, observed11.9%63.4%24.7%2041, Eurostat's projection10.2%56.8%33.0%

Source: Eurostat, demo_pjanbroad (2025) and proj_25np (2041), retrieved 27 September 2026.

2,258.0 billion euro in 2025, and the IMF forecast to 2031

Billion euro at current prices of 2025IMF forecast
1,8002,0002,2002,4002,258.0 in 20252,347.5 in 203120171.6%20190.4%20218.9%20230.9%20250.5%20270.5%20290.7%20310.7%

Real growth under each year: observed to 2025 (Eurostat, tec00115), the IMF forecast after. Sources: Eurostat, nama_10_gdp (2025 provisional); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation: the other years are the 2025 value moved by the real growth rates; retrieved 27 September 2026.

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What this report answers

  • How many first residence permits for work has Italy issued each year since 2019?

    57,362 in 2025, 46.7% more than the 39,090 of 2024. The highs of 2021 and 2022, 50,597 and 66,791, came from the regularisation of 2020; 11,069 in 2019.

  • Which countries do the new hires come from, and which are growing?

    India leads with 13,620 permits in 2025, 23.7%, 62 percent more than in 2024 and six times the 2,125 of 2019. Morocco follows with 10,059, and permits for Tunisia and Egypt more than doubled.

  • How does Italy compare with its neighbours per resident?

    1.7 first residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, about a third of the EU's 4.9, against 3.8 in Spain and 2.0 in Greece.

  • Which rules apply to employers who hire from abroad?

    The decree of 2 October 2025 allows 164,850 entries for work in 2026, 165,850 in 2027 and 166,850 in 2028. The job centre first has eight days to offer someone already in Italy, and the immigration office then has 60 days to issue the work clearance.

  • How is the working age population changing?

    Eurostat projects 34,330,495 people aged 20 to 64 in 2026 and 30,551,434 in 2041: about 3,780,000 fewer, a fall of 11.0 percent.

  • How many first residence permits for work do we expect Italy to issue in 2026, and what comes after?

    About 57,300 in 2026, between 35,400 and 86,900. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is flat. At 0.35 permits per place, the decree's places cap the central line, on stated assumptions, at 58,000 a year in 2031; places raised, the line without the cap, gives 133,000.

The full report answers each question with its figures, charts and sources. Request the full report