Turn your screen sideways to read the page at a larger size.

Contents
In brief

The country
- 3
58.9 million people, 1.35 million fewer than in 2015, and older
- 4
More deaths than births, arrivals nearly fill the gap

Where the market is now
- 5
Up 46.7 percent in 2025, after the regularisation peak of 2022
- 6
Per resident, Italy issues a third of the EU rate
- 7
India leads, and Tunisia and Egypt doubled
- 8
Five origins received two thirds of the 2025 permits
- 9
Yearly quotas, 3.8 million fewer aged 20 to 64 by 2041

The outlook
- 10
About 57,300 permits in 2026, under the decree's places
- 11
Origin shares held at 2025, and the drivers of the lines
- 11
What could change this

Method and sources
- 12
How to read this report
- 12
Sources, photographs and flags
Cover: Rome, the Colosseum. Photograph by Diliff, Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.5).
Italy issued 57,362 first residence permits for work to citizens of countries outside the EU in 2025, 46.7 percent more than in 2024; the highs of 2021 and 2022 came from the regularisation of 2020. For its size Italy still issues few: 1.7 for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64, against 4.9 across the EU. India was the largest origin, with 23.7 percent. The rules are opening and the count rose in 2025, but the decree of 2 October 2025 sets about the same number of places each year to 2028: 164,850 in 2026 and 166,850 in 2028. We expect about 57,300 permits in 2026; for 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number, and the direction is flat. The decree sets places for work clearances, not permits. At 0.35 permits per place (the highest ratio of 2023 to 2025, our arithmetic), the places cap the central line, a line on stated assumptions, at about 58,000 a year in 2031 and 2036, until a new decree sets other places.
First residence permits for work in 2025, up 46.7 percent on 2024
Permits in 2026, between 35,400 and 86,900
Permits a year in 2031, central line; held flat 57,300, places raised 133,000
Fewer people aged 20 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026, on Eurostat's 2025 projection
58.9 million people, 1.35 million fewer than in 2015, and older
Italy has 58.9 million people, 1,352,669 fewer than in 2015. Deaths have outnumbered births in every year since 2019, and since 2022 net migration has nearly closed the gap: in 2025 the population fell by only 636. Output per head is 92 percent of the EU average, growth was 0.5 percent in 2025, and Eurostat projects 11.0 percent fewer people aged 20 to 64 by 2041.

People living in Italy on 1 January 2026
2.2 percent fewer than in 2015, and 13.0 percent of the EU's 452.0 million. People aged 65 and over were 24.7 percent of the population in 2025.
GDP in 2025, billion euro at current prices
12.0 percent of the EU economy.
GDP per head in 2025
92 percent of the EU average of 41,700 euro in 2025. Counting lower prices at home, 96 percent, down from 97 percent in 2015.
Real growth in 2025
Against 1.4 percent across the EU. Over 2021 to 2025 the economy grew 16.7 percent in all, the EU grew 13.7 percent (our estimate from the yearly rates).
People aged 20 to 64 in work, 2025
Against 76.1 percent across the EU.
The decree for 2026 to 2028
Sources: Eurostat, demo_gind (population, updated 21 July 2026), nama_10_gdp and nama_10_pc (GDP, updated 21 September 2026), tec00114 (price adjusted GDP per head), tec00115 (growth), lfsi_emp_a (employment), demo_pjanbroad (age). All retrieved 27 September 2026. Figures for 2025 GDP, GDP per head and growth are provisional. Key dates: Gazzetta Ufficiale 240 of 15 October 2025, decree of 2 October 2025, articles 5 and 8, retrieved 27 September 2026.
More deaths than births, arrivals nearly fill the gap
In 2025 net migration nearly matched the 296,395 more deaths than births
In 2025, 651,830 people died and 355,435 were born. Net migration added 295,759, so the population fell by 636.
Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (updated 21 July 2026), migr_imm1ctz and migr_emi1ctz (moves of a year or more), retrieved 27 September 2026. Net migration includes Eurostat's statistical adjustment. Not published: moves in and out for 2025.
About 57.50 million people by 2041 on Eurostat's projection
Observed to 2026, then Eurostat's 2025 projection in the lighter line.
Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (observed, updated 21 July 2026) and proj_25np (EUROPOP2025 baseline and migration tests, updated 11 June 2026), retrieved 27 September 2026.
The share aged 65 and over rises to 33%
Source: Eurostat, demo_pjanbroad (2025) and proj_25np (2041), retrieved 27 September 2026.
2,258.0 billion euro in 2025, and the IMF forecast to 2031
Real growth under each year: observed to 2025 (Eurostat, tec00115), the IMF forecast after. Sources: Eurostat, nama_10_gdp (2025 provisional); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation: the other years are the 2025 value moved by the real growth rates; retrieved 27 September 2026.
Request the full report
All 13 pages as a PDF, sent to your email.
Page 1 of 13Use the arrow keys, the buttons or swipe to move between pages.Swipe to turn the page. Pinch to zoom.
ReportsUp 46.7 percent in 2025, after the regularisation peak of 2022
The 2020 regularisation lifted 2021 and 2022; permits rose 46.7% in 2025
Italy issued 57,362 first residence permits for work in 2025, against 39,090 in 2024 and 38,103 in 2023. The highs of 2021 and 2022 came from the regularisation of 2020, which gave permits to people already in Italy.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
A first residence permit for work is the first permesso di soggiorno for work a citizen of a country outside the EU receives in Italy, valid three months or more. Renewals are not counted.
Six in ten 2025 permits run a year or more
12 months or more: 53.4 percent in 2019, 62.6 in 2025. A third (19,458) run 6 to 11 months.
Share of permits valid for 12 months or more
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by length of validity, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
Per resident, Italy issues a third of the EU rate
First residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64
The first residence permits for work a country issues in a year, divided by the residents aged 20 to 64 living there on 1 January of that year. Renewals are left out, as Eurostat counts them.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst (first residence permits for employment reasons) and demo_pjangroup (residents aged 20 to 64 on 1 January), reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026 and 25 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026. Werklist calculation. The EU line: migr_resfirst and demo_pjangroup for the 27 EU countries (residents aged 20 to 64 in 2024 summed from single years of age, demo_pjan).
Per 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, by length of permit
| EU | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All lengths | 1.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 4.9 |
| 6 months or more | 1.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 4.8 |
| of which 12 months or more | 1.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 3.6 |
| 3 to 5 months | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.2 |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by length of validity and demo_pjangroup, 2025, retrieved 27 September 2026. Werklist calculation.
Italy issued 1.7 first residence permits for work per 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, against 3.8 in Spain and 4.9 across the EU. Spain's rate peaked at 4.8 in 2022, fell to 3.2 in 2024 and rose to 3.8 in 2025, the year its new immigration regulation took effect; the data show the timing, not the cause. Of the southern peers, only Greece, at 2.0, is close to Italy.
How Spain's rules changed
Sources: Royal Decree 1155/2024, BOE 280 of 20 November 2024; Order ISM/1547/2025, BOE 314 of 30 December 2025; Royal Decree 316/2026, BOE 92 of 15 April 2026. All read again at boe.es on 30 September 2026.
India leads, and Tunisia and Egypt doubled
Citizens of India received 13,620 permits in 2025, 62 percent more than in 2024 and six times the 2,125 of 2019; Morocco followed with 10,059. Permits for Tunisia and Egypt more than doubled. Of Werklist's seven sourcing centres, India had 13,620, Bangladesh 3,907, the Philippines 1,145, Indonesia 82, Vietnam 32, Nepal 18 and Uzbekistan 12: together 18,816, or 32.8 percent.
| Citizenship | Permits 2024 | Permits 2025 | Share 2024 | Share 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8,428 | 13,620 | 21.6% | 23.7% | |
| 6,205 | 10,059 | 15.9% | 17.5% | |
| 2,627 | 5,580 | 6.7% | 9.7% | |
| 2,342 | 5,102 | 6.0% | 8.9% | |
| 3,028 | 3,907 | 7.7% | 6.8% | |
| 3,048 | 3,101 | 7.8% | 5.4% | |
| 1,841 | 2,084 | 4.7% | 3.6% | |
| 1,114 | 1,857 | 2.8% | 3.2% | |
| 584 | 1,145 | 1.5% | 2.0% | |
| 41 | 82 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| Other origins | 9,832 | 10,825 | 25.2% | 18.9% |
| All origins | 39,090 | 57,362 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship, reference years 2024 and 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026. Vietnam (32), Nepal (18) and Uzbekistan (12), sourcing centres with the fewest permits, are counted in other origins.
India alone received 23.7% of the permits issued in 2025
Shares of the first residence permits for work issued in 2025, by citizenship.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship, reference year 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
18,816 permits for citizens of the seven centres in Italy, 56,876 in Portugal
Permits for citizens of the seven sourcing centres (Nepal, India, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia and Uzbekistan) in 2025, against all first residence permits for work.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship, reference year 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026. Portugal's count of 2025 follows a break in its series.
Five origins received two thirds of the 2025 permits
India received 23.7 percent of Italy's first residence permits for work in 2025
India, Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt and Bangladesh received 66.7 percent of the permits in 2025, against 28.3 percent in 2019, while the shares of Albania and the United States fell. The counts of 2021 and 2022 include the regularisation of 2020.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, by citizenship, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 29 September 2026.
Of the seven sourcing centres, India received 13,620 first residence permits for work in 2025, Bangladesh 3,907, the Philippines 1,145, Indonesia 82, Vietnam 32, Nepal 18 and Uzbekistan 12.
| Citizenship | 2019 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Share 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2,125 | 5,745 | 8,428 | 13,620 | 23.7% | |
| 626 | 4,119 | 6,205 | 10,059 | 17.5% | |
| 112 | 1,444 | 2,627 | 5,580 | 9.7% | |
| 230 | 1,789 | 2,342 | 5,102 | 8.9% | |
| 43 | 3,464 | 3,028 | 3,907 | 6.8% | |
| 1,481 | 3,216 | 3,048 | 3,101 | 5.4% | |
| 2,513 | 2,185 | 1,841 | 2,084 | 3.6% | |
| 88 | 694 | 1,114 | 1,857 | 3.2% | |
| 73 | 512 | 584 | 1,145 | 2.0% | |
| 17 | 50 | 41 | 82 | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 18 | 14 | 32 | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 18 | 11 | 18 | <0.1% | |
| 2 | 4 | 2 | 12 | <0.1% | |
| Other origins | 3,739 | 14,845 | 9,805 | 10,763 | 18.8% |
| All origins | 11,069 | 38,103 | 39,090 | 57,362 | 100.0% |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, by citizenship, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 29 September 2026.
Yearly quotas, 3.8 million fewer aged 20 to 64 by 2041
The rules as they stand on 27 September 2026
The decree of 2 October 2025 allows 164,850 entries for work in 2026, 165,850 in 2027 and 166,850 in 2028, seasonal and non-seasonal jobs and self employment together.
Of the 76,200 places for non-seasonal jobs in 2026, 25,000 are reserved for 38 listed countries, among them India, Bangladesh, the Philippines and Sri Lanka. Nepal is not listed.
Applications open at 9:00 on 12 January for farm seasonal jobs, 9 February for tourism, 16 February for non-seasonal jobs and 18 February for home care, every year to 2028.
The job centre has eight days to offer someone already in Italy. The immigration office then has 60 days to issue the work clearance (nulla osta), counted from the day the application enters the quota.
Sources: Gazzetta Ufficiale 240 of 15 October 2025, decree of 2 October 2025, articles 5 to 8; Legislative decree 286 of 1998, article 22, consolidated text on normattiva.it, as amended by decree law 146 of 2025 and law 179 of 1 December 2025. All retrieved 27 September 2026.
About 3,780,000 fewer people aged 20 to 64 by 2041
Eurostat projects 34,330,495 in 2026 and 30,551,434 in 2041, a fall of 11.0 percent. With lower migration the fall is 4,629,319, with higher migration 2,927,462.
Source: Eurostat, proj_25np, EUROPOP2025 baseline and migration sensitivity tests, updated 11 June 2026; 2025 observed, demo_pjangroup, updated 25 September 2026; retrieved 27 September 2026.
Citizens of Italy who left in 2024
About 141,000 citizens left in one year, while the working age population is projected to shrink.
Eurostat, migr_emi1ctz, retrieved 27 September 2026
Unemployment in 2025, against 6.0 percent across the EU
Close to the EU rate. Before hiring from abroad, an employer must first ask the job centre.
Eurostat, une_rt_a, retrieved 27 September 2026
Places for home care in the 2026 decree
Part of the non-seasonal quota, for carers hired by families; 14,000 in 2027, 14,200 in 2028.
Gazzetta Ufficiale 240 of 15 October 2025, article 6, retrieved 27 September 2026
About 57,300 permits in 2026, under the decree's places
We expect about 57,300 first residence permits for work in 2026. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is flat. The decree of 2 October 2025 sets places for work clearances, not permits. At 0.35 permits per place (the highest ratio of 2023 to 2025, our arithmetic), the decree's places cap the central line near 57,300 in 2026 and 58,000 from 2028, until a new decree sets other places. In 2031 the central line gives 58,000, held flat 57,300 and places raised, the line without the cap, 133,000.
Permits in 2026, our estimate
between 35,400 and 86,900
Permits a year in 2031, the central line on stated assumptions
held flat 57,300; places raised 133,000; peers' rate 192,000, a scenario
Direction of the rules and of the count
Permits in 2027: flat; the range is too wide for a yearly number
At 0.35 permits per place, the decree's places cap the central line at 58,000 from 2028
Permits issued to 2025, then our estimate with its range for 2026; for 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number and the direction is flat. From 2027, three lines on stated assumptions, their spread shaded, and a scenario. The peers' rate is a scenario, not a forecast: Italy moving from 1.67 first residence permits for work a year per 1,000 people aged 20 to 64 to 9.79, the median of its peers (Cyprus 41.53, Spain 3.85, Greece 2.00 and Malta 43.35 in 2025, Portugal 9.79 in 2024), over ten years. For the count to follow it, Italy would need a new decree with far more places and far more of them turned into permits than the 0.35 per place of 2025; no such draft is published. In 2036 the peers' rate gives 314,000, the central line 58,000.
Source: Werklist estimate from Eurostat migr_resfirst (reference years to 2025, updated 11 September 2026); the lines from 2027: central line, moving toward 265,000 a year, 1.05 times the yearly loss of people aged 20 to 64, halving the gap every 12 years, capped at the places of the decree of 2 October 2025 times 0.35 until a new decree; held flat, the line held at 57,300; places raised, the line without the places cap; peers' rate, the median of their latest rates (2025; Portugal 2024), Eurostat migr_resfirst over EUROPOP2025; retrieved 27 September 2026. Values rounded to three significant figures; Low and High give the range of 2026; the table gives the lines in 2031, 2036 and 2041, each line in a row of its own.
Origin shares held at 2025, and the drivers of the lines
India's share held at 23.7% to 2031; the seven centres together about a third
Our estimate holds each origin at its share of 2025 to 2031. Bangladesh stays near 6.8 percent, the Philippines near 2.0, Vietnam and Indonesia near 0.1; Nepal (18 permits in 2025) and Uzbekistan (12) stay under 0.1 percent.
Source: Werklist estimate on Eurostat migr_resfirst by citizenship, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026. Shares of each year's permits, to 2031, held at the shares of 2025.
The drivers of the estimate
The working age and the count's own trend enter the central line, and the places of the decree cap it; the other numbers stand beside it.
11.0 percent fewer, 2026 to 2041. The central line moves toward 265,000 a year, 1.05 times this loss.
Clamped at 22.1 percent, damped by half a year: a factor of 1.22 at most.
141,056 left and 58,468 returned, all ages.
The IMF's projection of real GDP growth for the year the estimate starts.
Against 9.79, the median of its five peers, and 4.92 across the EU.
Sources: Eurostat proj_25np (EUROPOP2025), migr_resfirst, migr_emi1ctz and migr_imm1ctz; IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026; retrieved 27 September 2026.
What could change this
The lines already carry one dated change, the decree of 2 October 2025. The other two cards name changes outside the estimate.
The decree of 2 October 2025
It sets 164,850 places for 2026, 165,850 for 2027 and 166,850 for 2028. At 0.35 permits per place, the highest ratio of 2023 to 2025, the places cap the central line at about 57,300 in 2026 and 58,000 from 2028. The line places raised shows the case without the cap: 217,000 in 2041.
A new decree for 2029
The decree covers 2026 to 2028 only. A next decree with more places, or far more places turned into permits than the 0.35 of 2025, would move the count toward the line places raised, 133,000 in 2031. No decree for 2029 is published.
New migration agreements
The decree keeps 18,000 non-seasonal places in 2026, 26,000 in 2027 and 34,000 in 2028 for countries whose new agreements with Italy enter into force, none named yet in the decree.
How to read this report
What a first residence permit for work is
The first permesso di soggiorno a citizen of a country outside the EU receives to work, valid three months or more: for subordinate work (Legislative decree 286 of 1998, article 22), seasonal work, self employment or an EU Blue Card. Renewals are not counted. The flows decree sets places for work clearances (nulla osta), not permits.
What the range and the lines mean
For 2026 we give a yearly number and its range; for 2027 the range is too wide for a number, so we give only the direction. From 2027 we give three lines on stated assumptions, their spread, and one scenario. Observed numbers are solid lines, estimates dashed ones.
How the estimate is made
We start from the 57,362 permits of 2025. Uncapped, the central line would move toward 265,000 a year, 1.05 times the yearly fall in people aged 20 to 64. The decree's places cap it at 0.35 permits per place, the highest ratio of 2023 to 2025: about 58,000 from 2028. Held flat keeps 57,300; places raised drops the cap.
Numbers, dates and words
Past counts are printed exactly; estimates are rounded to three significant figures. The comparisons with Spain, the other southern peers (Cyprus, Greece, Malta, Portugal) and the EU are our arithmetic on Eurostat data. Permits are counted, not people; people appear only where we speak of the population.
Sources
Every source retrieved 27 September 2026, except Eurostat's permits by citizenship, 2019 to 2025 (29 September 2026), and the Boletín Oficial del Estado, read again on 30 September 2026.
- Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits by reason, length of validity and citizenship, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ migr_resfirst - Eurostat, demo_gind, demo_pjangroup and demo_pjanbroad, population, births, deaths and age. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - Eurostat, migr_imm1ctz and migr_emi1ctz, immigration and emigration by citizenship. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - Eurostat, proj_25np, EUROPOP2025 population projection, baseline and migration sensitivity tests, updated 11 June 2026. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ proj_25np - Eurostat, nama_10_gdp, nama_10_pc, tec00114 and tec00115, GDP, GDP per head and growth. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - Eurostat, lfsi_emp_a and une_rt_a, employment and unemployment. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026, real GDP growth. imf.org/
external/ datamapper - Gazzetta Ufficiale, Italy, Decree of the President of the Council of Ministers of 2 October 2025, entries for work 2026 to 2028, Serie generale 240 of 15 October 2025. gazzettaufficiale.it
- Normattiva, Italy, Legislative decree 286 of 25 July 1998, article 22, consolidated text; decree law 146 of 3 October 2025, converted by law 179 of 1 December 2025. normattiva.it
- Prefecture of Perugia, Ministry of the Interior, precompilation and opening days of applications under the decree for 2026 to 2028. prefettura.interno.gov.it
- Boletín Oficial del Estado, Spain, Royal Decree 1155/2024, the immigration regulation, BOE 280 of 20 November 2024; Order ISM/1547/2025, BOE 314 of 30 December 2025; Royal Decree 316/2026, BOE 92 of 15 April 2026. boe.es
Photographs and flags
Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 2.5): The Colosseum, Diliff (cover). Pexels: rooftops of Rome, Ecem Arslan (page 3); port cranes, Enes Beydilli; tower cranes, Airam Dato-on; Sassolungo, Dolomites, Eberhard Grossgasteiger (back cover). Wikimedia Commons (CC0): Trevi Fountain, Rome, Wilfredor. Flags: circle-flags by HatScripts, MIT licence.
What this report answers
How many first residence permits for work has Italy issued each year since 2019?
57,362 in 2025, 46.7% more than the 39,090 of 2024. The highs of 2021 and 2022, 50,597 and 66,791, came from the regularisation of 2020; 11,069 in 2019.
Which countries do the new hires come from, and which are growing?
India leads with 13,620 permits in 2025, 23.7%, 62 percent more than in 2024 and six times the 2,125 of 2019. Morocco follows with 10,059, and permits for Tunisia and Egypt more than doubled.
How does Italy compare with its neighbours per resident?
1.7 first residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, about a third of the EU's 4.9, against 3.8 in Spain and 2.0 in Greece.
Which rules apply to employers who hire from abroad?
The decree of 2 October 2025 allows 164,850 entries for work in 2026, 165,850 in 2027 and 166,850 in 2028. The job centre first has eight days to offer someone already in Italy, and the immigration office then has 60 days to issue the work clearance.
How is the working age population changing?
Eurostat projects 34,330,495 people aged 20 to 64 in 2026 and 30,551,434 in 2041: about 3,780,000 fewer, a fall of 11.0 percent.
How many first residence permits for work do we expect Italy to issue in 2026, and what comes after?
About 57,300 in 2026, between 35,400 and 86,900. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is flat. At 0.35 permits per place, the decree's places cap the central line, on stated assumptions, at 58,000 a year in 2031; places raised, the line without the cap, gives 133,000.
The full report answers each question with its figures, charts and sources. Request the full report