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Contents
In brief

The country
- 3
285.7 million people, and the working age still grows
- 4
Births far exceed deaths; net departures are small

Going abroad for work
- 5
296,948 placements in 2025, most within Asia
- 6
Japan ranks first for Indonesians, then Germany and Poland
- 7
Poland fell after 2022; France and Romania rose
- 8
The Philippines' EU permit rate is 20 times Indonesia's
- 9
Placement fees barred; Poland’s minimum is 6.4 times home pay

The outlook
- 10
About 6,200 permits in 2026, four scenarios from 2028
- 11
Poland and Hungary tightened; Germany's line rises the most
- 11
What could change this

Method and sources
- 12
How to read this report
- 12
Sources, photographs and flags
Cover: The National Monument in Jakarta at night. Photograph by Airlangga Jati, Pexels.
The register of the Indonesian ministry for migrant workers counts 296,948 placements abroad in 2025, most in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Malaysia; the EU countries it names take 2.2 percent, most of it Italy's 4,882 placements, set against 82 first EU residence permits for work in Italy. Citizens of Indonesia received 6,239 first EU residence permits for work in 2025, down 13.4 percent on 2024. Poland issued 19.2 percent of the permits, Germany 18.3 and France 10.9. On ease of entry, then size, Japan, Germany and Poland rank first for citizens of Indonesia. The rules are tightening in Poland and Hungary. Our estimate is about 6,200 permits in 2026, between 3,830 and 9,400, level with 2025. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is flat, and rising in 2031. From 2028 we give one line held flat, 6,190, and four scenarios, not forecasts: in 2031 they run from 6,820 (open routes in Portugal) to 9,810 (Bulgaria's job orders).
First EU residence permits for work in 2025, down 13.4 percent on 2024
Permits in 2026, our estimate, between 3,830 and 9,400
Permits a year in 2031, the direction: the range is too wide for a yearly number
EU countries in the register, 2025
285.7 million people, and the working age still grows
Indonesia has 285.7 million people, 23.9 million more than in 2015. Births outnumbered deaths by about 2.3 million in 2024, while slightly more people leave than arrive, 38,469 net in 2024. Output per head, 5,060 US dollars, is 35 percent of the world average, growth was 5.1 percent in 2025, and the population aged 15 to 64 keeps growing.

People living in Indonesia in 2025, mid year
9.1 percent more than in 2015. People aged 15 to 64 were 68.2 percent of the population in 2025.
Median age in 2025
Half the population is younger. Our estimate from the World Bank's five year age groups.
GDP per head in 2025
35 percent of the world average of 14,406 US dollars.
The average monthly wage, 2025
3,330,000 IDR a month, at 18,967.88 IDR to the euro.
Money sent home by people working abroad, share of GDP, 2025
Against 0.8 percent across the world.
A law, then a ministry
Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators (population, GDP per head, personal remittances received as a share of GDP) and population estimates and projections (five year age groups, for our median age), retrieved 27 September 2026. Wage: Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Press release of 5 November 2025: unemployment rate was 4.85 percent, the average wage of employees was 3.33 million rupiah; European Central Bank, rupiah per euro, August 2025 average; retrieved 27 September 2026. Key dates: Law 18 of 2017, official text (legal documentation network of South Sumatra Province); Minister of KP2MI Regulation 2 of 2025 (KP2MI legal documentation network); retrieved 27 September 2026.
Births far exceed deaths; net departures are small
Births exceed deaths by 2.3 million in 2024; net departures of 38,469 take under 2 percent
In 2024, births minus deaths came to +2,307,025 and net migration to −38,469, so the population grew by about 2,268,556.
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (net migration and crude birth and death rates from UN World Population Prospects 2024, whose estimates end in 2023; later years are its projection), retrieved 27 September 2026. Births minus deaths is our arithmetic on the crude rates. Not yet published: births minus deaths for 2025.
About 313.04 million people by 2041
Estimated to 2025, then the World Bank's projection in the lighter line.
Source: World Bank, SP.POP.TOTL (World Development Indicators); World Bank, population projection based on UN World Population Prospects 2024; retrieved 27 September 2026.
The share aged 65 and over rises to 12%
Source: World Bank, population estimates and projections, retrieved 27 September 2026.
1,445.6 billion US dollars in 2025, and the IMF forecast to 2031
Real growth under each year: observed to 2025 (World Bank), the IMF forecast after. Sources: World Bank, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD (2025); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation: the other years are the 2025 value moved by the real growth rates; retrieved 27 September 2026.
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Reports296,948 placements in 2025, most within Asia
Back above the 2019 level since 2023, and flat at about 297,000
Source: Ministry for the Protection of Indonesian Migrant Workers (KP2MI), which absorbed BP2MI, Laporan tahunan 2025, retrieved 27 September 2026.
Indonesia recorded 296,948 placements abroad in 2025. Taiwan, Hong Kong and Malaysia took 74.3 percent; the EU countries the register names, Italy, Bulgaria and Slovakia, took 2.2 percent.
Taiwan and Hong Kong took 55.9% in 2025
The five largest destinations of the placements of 2025.
placements to Italy, Bulgaria and Slovakia, per cent of all; our arithmetic; a floor, as smaller destinations sit under other (5,367). Italy: 4,882 placements, against 82 first EU residence permits for work to citizens of Indonesia (Eurostat), so most of the 2.2 percent has no matching EU residence permit for work.
Source: Ministry for the Protection of Indonesian Migrant Workers (KP2MI), which absorbed BP2MI, Laporan tahunan 2025, placement services by country or destination, 2023 to 2025, retrieved 27 September 2026.
What the register counts, and what it does not
Counted: A placement under Law 18 of 2017: a departure for a job abroad that has passed every pre departure step recorded in Sisko P2MI; from 2023 the count is of placement services, earlier years come from older reports.
Not counted: People who leave outside the official process, on visit visas or through unlicensed brokers. It includes 41,979 contract renewals in 2025, 14.1 percent, so it is not a count of first departures.
Japan ranks first for Indonesians, then Germany and Poland
We rank destinations for citizens of Indonesia by the ease of entry for them first, then by the size of their flow. Nine of the ten below are in grade 1, the easiest of five, and France, tenth, is in grade 2. Poland, which issued 1,201 of their 6,239 first EU residence permits for work in 2025, the most in the EU, ranks third.
| Place and destination | Size, Werklist estimate 2027 to 2031 | Ease, share of the full score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 518,000 | 97.5% |
| 2 | 7,880 | 81.9% |
| 3 | 5,570 | 88.1% |
| 4 | 2,560 | 87.1% |
| 5 | 957 | 84.2% |
| 6 | not reported | 96.9% |
| 7 | not reported | 96.9% |
| 8 | not reported | 99.1% |
| 9 Brunei | not reported | 92.2% |
| 10 | 3,400 | 77.7% |
Source: Werklist ranking of destinations by corridor, run 2026.1-rk-15d, 29 September 2026, from the country records of edition 2026.1 and the arrivals of the latest year (Eurostat, migr_resfirst, 2025; Immigration Services Agency of Japan, new entries on a working status of residence, 2025; KP2MI, placements by destination, 2025). Size: the Werklist estimate of each destination for 2027 to 2031 together, times the share of citizens of Indonesia in its count, rounded to three significant figures, in the unit of that count: Japan, new entries on a working status of residence; the others, first residence permits for work (Eurostat). Not known, and printed as not reported, where the record holds no share (Taiwan, Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia, Brunei).
Ease of entry first, then the size of the flow
Each destination is graded 1 to 5 on a score out of 100 for citizens of Indonesia: admission, where they file, the approval at home, the labour market test and the decision time, and the arrivals of the latest year. Within a grade the larger flow ranks first.
Taiwan and Hong Kong, the two largest destinations in the register, and Saudi Arabia and Brunei rank after Bulgaria in grade 1: their size is not known. The sizes are in two units, new entries for Japan and first permits for the others, so they are not strictly comparable. Malaysia, with 54,434 placements in 2025, is not graded, as its admission rules were not read at a source, and ranks 44th. Hungary takes no place: its routes for blue collar work are closed to citizens of Indonesia (Decree 450/2024 as replaced by Decree 92/2026); it issued them 548 permits in 2025, and the estimate keeps about 530 a year there through other routes (page 11).
Source: Werklist ranking of destinations by corridor, run 2026.1-rk-15d, 29 September 2026.
More than twice 2019, but falling since the 2023 peak
First EU residence permits for work issued to citizens of Indonesia, by year, with the change on the year before.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons in the 27 EU countries to citizens of Indonesia, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
Poland fell after 2022; France and Romania rose
Poland's share fell from 47.9 percent in 2022 to 19.2 in 2025
The 27 EU countries issued 6,239 first EU residence permits for work to citizens of Indonesia in 2025, down from the peak of 7,882 in 2023. Poland fell from 3,175 in 2022 to 1,201, while France rose from 143 to 681, Slovakia from 46 to 476 and Romania from 215 to 508.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons in the 27 EU countries to citizens of Indonesia, by country of issue, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 29 September 2026; the totals of the seven centres: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, EU27, 2025, updated 28 September 2026, retrieved 29 September 2026.
Among the seven sourcing centres of Werklist, Indonesia received the fewest first EU residence permits for work in 2025, 6,239, against India 101,573, Nepal 71,061, the Philippines 50,944, Bangladesh 29,626, Uzbekistan 22,928 and Vietnam 14,794.
| Destination | 2019 | 2024 | 2025 | Share 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 784 | 2,788 | 1,201 | 19.2% | |
| 726 | 945 | 1,139 | 18.3% | |
| 93 | 581 | 681 | 10.9% | |
| 68 | 705 | 548 | 8.8% | |
| 38 | 448 | 508 | 8.1% | |
| 8 | 226 | 476 | 7.6% | |
| 230 | 307 | 286 | 4.6% | |
| 50 | 230 | 278 | 4.5% | |
| Other EU countries | 648 | 973 | 1,122 | 18.0% |
| All EU countries | 2,645 | 7,203 | 6,239 | 100.0% |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons in the 27 EU countries to citizens of Indonesia, by country of issue, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 29 September 2026; the totals of the seven centres: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, EU27, 2025, updated 28 September 2026, retrieved 29 September 2026.
The Philippines' EU permit rate is 20 times Indonesia's
First EU residence permits for work for every 100,000 residents aged 15 to 64
The first EU residence permits for work the 27 EU countries issue in a year to citizens of a country, divided by that country's residents aged 15 to 64. Both lines use the same two sources.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst (first residence permits for employment in the EU27, by citizenship), updated 11 September 2026; World Bank, SP.POP.1564.TO (residents aged 15 to 64); reference years 2019 to 2025, retrieved 27 September 2026. Werklist calculation.
Indonesia, 2025
Down from its peak of 4.1 in 2023.
The Philippines, 2025
Up from 20.7 in 2019.
The Philippines is the comparison: like Indonesia, a country of Southeast Asia and one of the seven sourcing centres of Werklist. Measured against residents aged 15 to 64, citizens of Indonesia receive few first EU residence permits for work: 3.2 for every 100,000 in 2025, against 65.0 for the Philippines. Indonesia's rate rose from 1.4 in 2019 to a peak of 4.1 in 2023, then fell; the Philippines' rose from 20.7 to 65.0, with a dip in 2024. In permits, the Philippines' 50,944 are more than eight times Indonesia's 6,239. The data show when the rates moved, not why.
Both governments run nurse schemes with Germany
Sources: KP2MI, Laporan tahunan 2025 (government to government Germany; recruitment permits by destination); Eurostat, migr_resfirst; Department of Migrant Workers, Philippines, Government to Government Vacancies (2026); retrieved 27 September 2026.
Placement fees barred; Poland’s minimum is 6.4 times home pay
The rules at home, as they stand on 27 September 2026
Law 18 of 2017 governs work abroad: placement runs through the state agency, a licensed placement company, or an employer placing its own staff.
At 18 or over, healthy and in social security, a person needs family consent, a competence certificate, a medical check, a work visa and a contract.
A placement company needs a SIP3MI licence from the central government, and a SIP2MI recruitment permit for each employer order it fills.
The act says people placed abroad may not be charged placement costs; which costs and jobs this covers is left to an agency rule.
The state runs social security for people working abroad and their families within the national scheme; enrolment is a condition of placement.
An Indonesian mission first verifies the demand letter, the agreement and the draft contract; the recruitment permit then follows within two working days.
Only to countries with laws protecting foreign labour, an agreement with Indonesia or social cover; the state may stop placement to a country or job.
Sources: Law 18 of 2017, articles 5, 13, 29 to 32, 49 and 51, official text (legal documentation network of South Sumatra Province); Minister of KP2MI Regulation 2 of 2025, articles 1, 6 and 7 (KP2MI legal documentation network); retrieved 27 September 2026.
Where the visa is issued
For the largest EU destinations, the embassy or visa centre that takes the application.
Sources: Embassy of Poland in Jakarta, type D visa with the right to work; German Embassy Jakarta, national visa appointments (questions and answers page); Embassy of France in Indonesia and TLScontact; Embassy of Hungary in Jakarta, visas for Indonesian citizens; retrieved 27 September 2026.
Unemployment among people aged 15 to 24, 2025, against 13.4 percent across the world
Near the world rate; 21.4 percent of 15 to 24 year olds neither worked nor studied in 2023.
World Bank, SL.UEM.1524.ZS, SL.UEM.NEET.ZS, updated July 2026
The minimum wage in Poland against the average monthly wage at home
A month at Poland's minimum wage equals more than six months of average pay at home.
Eurostat, earn_mw_cur (Poland, second half of 2026, 1,119 euro a month, updated 31 July 2026); the wage at home as on page 3
More people aged 15 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026, on the World Bank's projection
Fifteen years add 13.7 million people of working age, so the pool of candidates keeps growing.
World Bank, SP.POP.1564.TO, retrieved 27 September 2026
About 6,200 permits in 2026, four scenarios from 2028
We expect about 6,200 permits in 2026, level with 2025, a count that already carries Poland's county lists and Hungary's list of January 2025. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is flat, and rising in 2031. From 2028 we give one line held flat and four scenarios, not forecasts. Germany's line rises the most, while Poland's is flat; the dated changes in Hungary, Romania and Portugal move the sum of the destinations by less than 200 permits.
Permits in 2026, our estimate
between 3,830 and 9,400
Permits a year in 2031, the direction
Too wide for a yearly number; 2027 flat; the scenarios give 6,820 to 9,810 in 2031, held flat 6,190
Direction of the rules and of the count
Four scenarios give 6,820 to 9,810 permits a year in 2031, held flat 6,190
Permits issued to 2025, then our estimate with its range for 2026; 2027 as a direction, flat; from 2028 one line held flat, a stated assumption, and four scenarios in grey, not forecasts. Held flat stands at 6,190: each destination at its 2025 count, Croatia at its 2026 pace to August, Portugal at its 2024 share. Bulgaria's job orders, a scenario, turns the 6,601 vacancies listed for Bulgaria in 2025 into permits at Poland's ratio of permits to listed vacancies (0.466), about 3,080 a year, where Bulgaria issued 120 in 2025. Not drawn: places raised in Italy, 7,070 in 2031; the court suspension in Romania lowers 2027 only. The labels at the line ends give 2041.
Source: Werklist estimate from Eurostat migr_resfirst (reference years to 2025, updated 11 September 2026); 2027: a direction, as its range is too wide for a yearly number. From 2028: held flat, a stated assumption, each destination at its 2026 base (the 2025 count; Croatia at the 2026 pace of the Ministry of the Interior, 44,646 to 31 August; Portugal at its 2024 share). Scenarios: sum of the destinations, the central lines of the EU destinations at the 2025 shares of their permits; open routes in Portugal, Portugal at 5 a year, the level of the routes still open; quota lifted in Romania, the line without the 2026 quota cut (Emergency Ordinance 32/2026); Bulgaria's job orders, 6,601 vacancies listed for Bulgaria in the recruitment permits (SIP2MI) of 2025 (KP2MI, Laporan tahunan 2025) at Poland's ratio of 2025 (1,201 permits to 2,575 vacancies, 0.466). Not drawn: places raised in Italy; court suspension in Romania. Retrieved 29 September 2026. Values rounded to three significant figures; Low and High give the range of 2026.
Poland and Hungary tightened; Germany's line rises the most
Poland and Hungary tighten, two hold
The rules in the largest EU destinations, and their permits for Indonesians from 2024 to 2025.
Act of 20 March 2025 lets counties close jobs to foreigners.
State to state placement of nurses, as on page 8.
The recast single permit directive, (EU) 2024/1233, applies.
Decree 450/2024: from 1 January 2025 guest worker residence permits and residence permits for employment only for Armenia, Georgia and the Philippines.
Sources: the instruments named; Germany: KP2MI, annual report 2025; read 27 September 2026.
Germany's line rises the most; Poland's is flat
Germany, Poland and France issued almost half of the permits of 2025.
250.4 million in 2041 (EUROPOP2025); the loss lifts the lines of Germany, Slovakia and Bulgaria, not those of Poland, France and Hungary.
About 1,220 permits to Indonesians in 2026; its line rises the most of the destinations to 2031.
Its line is flat to 2031, from 304,000 permits of all citizenships in 2026; about 1,150 go to Indonesians.
EU countries took 2.2 percent of 296,948 placements in 2025.
Sources: Eurostat, proj_25np and migr_resfirst; World Bank, SP.POP.1564.TO; KP2MI, Laporan tahunan 2025; Werklist country records; retrieved 27 September 2026.
What could change this
The lines carry four dated changes, in the cards; for Indonesia each is small. Bulgaria's job orders stay out of the sum of the destinations and are drawn as a scenario on page 10: Indonesian recruitment permits of 2025 listed 6,601 vacancies in Bulgaria, against 598 in 2024.
Hungary: Decrees 450/2024 and 92/2026
Since 1 January 2025 Hungary opens guest worker residence permits and residence permits for employment only to Armenia, Georgia and the Philippines, and Decree 92/2026 closed the guest worker route from 6 June 2026. The 548 permits of 2025 to Indonesians came through other routes; the sum of the destinations keeps about 530 a year.
Romania: quota and court
Government Decision 1169/2025 set a 2026 quota of 90,000, and from April 2026 a single application replaces the work authorisation (Emergency Ordinance 32/2026). The sum of the destinations holds Romania at about 460 permits a year to Indonesians; quota lifted in Romania, a scenario, gives 7,120 in 2031. The Court of Appeal Bucharest suspended the shortage list on 10 September 2026, which lowers 2027 only.
Portugal: two routes closed
Decree-Law 37-A/2024 ended residence from inside Portugal on an expression of interest from 4 June 2024. No count sizes the closed routes, so the sum of the destinations keeps Portugal at its 2024 share, about 140 permits to Indonesians; open routes in Portugal, a scenario, holds it at 5 a year, 6,820 in all in 2031.
How to read this report
What a first EU residence permit for work is
Eurostat's first permit for employment: the first residence permit, valid three months or more, that an EU country issues to a citizen of Indonesia for work. It gathers the single permit for residence and work, the EU Blue Card, permits for seasonal work and each country's other permits for work. Renewals are not counted.
What the range and the scenarios mean
Our estimate gives a yearly number with a low and a high end for 2026 only. For 2027 its range is too wide, so we give the direction, flat. From 2028 we give one line held flat, a stated assumption, and four scenarios, not forecasts. Observed numbers are solid lines, the estimate and the scenarios dashed.
How the estimate is made
We add up the EU countries: each destination's line times Indonesia's 2025 share of its permits, Portugal at its 2024 share: about 6,200 in 2026, from 6,239 in 2025. From 2028 this sum is one scenario; held flat keeps each base; open routes in Portugal holds it at 5 a year; quota lifted in Romania takes away its 2026 quota cut.
Numbers, dates and words
Past counts are printed exactly; estimates are rounded to three significant figures. Placements and first EU residence permits for work are two different counts. Permits are counted, not people, except the size of Japan on page 6: new entries, people entering Japan.
Sources
Every source retrieved 27 September 2026; the ranking by corridor and the totals of the seven centres on 29 September 2026.
- Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits by reason, length of validity and citizenship, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ migr_resfirst - World Bank, World Development Indicators and population estimates and projections (population, age, births, deaths, net migration, GDP, employment, unemployment). data.worldbank.org
- Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship and country of issue, first residence permits for employment. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ migr_resfirst - International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026, real GDP growth. imf.org/
external/ datamapper - World Bank, personal remittances received as a share of GDP (BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS), unemployment aged 15 to 24 (SL.UEM.1524.ZS, ILO estimate), population by five year age group. data.worldbank.org
- Eurostat, earn_mw_cur, monthly minimum wages. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ earn_mw_cur - Ministry for the Protection of Indonesian Migrant Workers (KP2MI), which absorbed BP2MI, Laporan tahunan 2025. kp2mi.go.id
- Statistics Indonesia, average monthly wage, 2025. www.bps.go.id
- European Central Bank, rupiah per euro, August 2025 average. data.ecb.europa.eu
- Indonesia, laws and regulations, Law 18 of 2017 on the Protection of Indonesian Migrant Workers (South Sumatra legal documentation network); Minister of KP2MI Regulation 2 of 2025 on recruitment permits (KP2MI legal documentation network). jdih.bp2mi.go.id
- Embassies in Jakarta, visa pages of Poland, Germany, France (with TLScontact) and Hungary (with VFS Global). jakarta.diplo.de
- Department of Migrant Workers, Philippines, Government to Government Vacancies page (2026), for the rules card of page 8. dmw.gov.ph
- Hungary, Romania, Portugal, Poland, Decree 450/2024 and Decree 92/2026; Government Decision 1169 of 30 December 2025, Emergency Ordinance 32/2026 and the Court of Appeal Bucharest ruling of 10 September 2026; Decree-Law 37-A/2024; Act of 20 March 2025; as in our country records. njt.hu, diariodarepublica.pt
- Werklist, ranking of destinations by corridor, run 2026.1-rk-15d, 29 September 2026. werklist.com
Photographs and flags
Pexels: Monas at night, Airlangga Jati (cover); Merdeka Square, Jakarta, Tom Fisk (page 3); terraced rice fields, Bengkulu, Rahmadhimawan; Mount Salak, West Java, Ridwan Afriandy; fields below Mount Sumbing, Central Java, Tri Martono; rice terraces, Bali, Tina P.; Mount Bromo, East Java, Dananjaya Cikal (back cover). Flags: circle-flags by HatScripts, MIT licence.
What this report answers
How many first EU residence permits for work went to citizens of Indonesia each year since 2019?
6,239 in 2025, 13.4% fewer than the 7,203 of 2024 and down from the peak of 7,882 in 2023, but more than twice the 2,645 of 2019.
Which EU countries issue the most of them, and which are growing?
Poland issued 1,201 in 2025, 19.2%, just ahead of Germany with 1,139 and France with 681. Poland fell from 3,175 in 2022, while France, Slovakia and Romania rose.
How many placements abroad does Indonesia count, and how many are in the EU?
296,948 placements abroad in 2025, most in Taiwan, Hong Kong and Malaysia. The EU countries the register names, Italy, Bulgaria and Slovakia, took 2.2%.
What rules apply at home before a worker from Indonesia can leave?
Placement runs through the state agency, a licensed placement company or an employer placing its own staff. A worker must be 18 or over, with family consent, a competence certificate, a medical check, a work visa and a contract, and may not be charged placement costs.
How are the rules changing in the main destinations?
Poland and Hungary tighten, Germany and France hold. Poland lets counties close jobs to foreigners; Hungary opens its main routes only to Armenia, Georgia and the Philippines since 1 January 2025 and closed the guest worker route on 6 June 2026.
How many first EU residence permits for work do we expect in 2026, and what comes after?
About 6,200 in 2026, between 3,830 and 9,400, level with 2025. For 2027 the direction is flat, and rising in 2031. In 2031 held flat, a stated assumption, gives 6,190; four scenarios, not forecasts, run from 6,820 (open routes in Portugal) to 9,810 (Bulgaria's job orders).
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