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Contents
In brief

The country
- 3
1.46 billion people, and the working age keeps growing
- 4
More births than deaths, more leaving than arriving

Going abroad for work
- 5
449,110 clearances in 2025; in 2024 most went to the Gulf
- 6
Oman ranks first for citizens of India, then Kuwait and Bahrain
- 7
Italy rose every year after 2020; Germany is below 2022
- 8
Per working age resident, Nepal is 36 times India
- 9
Portugal's minimum wage is 4.4 times a man's pay in India

The outlook
- 10
About 85,500 permits in 2026, four scenarios from 2028
- 11
Italy opens, Poland tightens, Portugal reverses, Germany holds
- 11
What could change this

Method and sources
- 12
How to read this report
- 12
Sources, photographs and flags
Cover: India Gate in New Delhi at night. Photograph by Ranjeet Chauhan, Pexels.
Citizens of India received 101,573 first EU residence permits for work in 2025, up 20.7 percent on 2024. Most of the rise is Portugal's 23,090, which settled the papers of people already there; without Portugal permits rose 2.0 percent, to 78,483, below the 82,445 of 2022. India's 449,110 emigration clearances cover only 18 countries outside Europe. On ease of entry, then size, Oman, Kuwait and Bahrain rank first for citizens of India, Germany and Italy fourth and fifth. Our estimate is 85,500 permits in 2026 (52,800 to 130,000). For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is flat, and rising in 2031. From 2028 we give four scenarios, not forecasts: in 2031 they run from 89,600 (open routes in Portugal) to 114,000 (places raised in Italy); held flat gives 84,200.
First EU residence permits for work in 2025: up 20.7 percent, 2.0 without Portugal
Permits in 2026, our estimate, between 52,800 and 130,000
Permits a year in 2031, the direction: the range is too wide for a yearly number
Emigration clearances in 2025, 18 countries outside Europe
1.46 billion people, and the working age keeps growing
India has 1.46 billion people, 135,841,027 more than in 2015. Births outnumbered deaths by 13.6 million in 2024, while 630,830 more people left than arrived. Output per head, 2,702 US dollars, is 19 percent of the world average, growth was 7.6 percent in the fiscal year from April 2025, and the population aged 15 to 64 keeps growing.

People living in India in 2025, mid year
Exactly 1,463,865,525, 10.2 percent more than in 2015. People aged 15 to 64 were 68.4 percent of the population in 2025.
Median age in 2025
Half the population is younger. Our estimate from the World Bank's five year age groups.
GDP per head in 2025
19 percent of the world average of 14,406 US dollars.
Men's monthly pay in regular jobs, 2025
24,217 rupees a month; women earn 18,353 rupees (186 euro). At 98.52 rupees to the euro.
Money sent home by people working abroad, share of GDP, 2025
Against 0.8 percent across the world.
A new portal, an EU memorandum
Sources: World Bank, World Development Indicators (population, GDP per head, personal remittances received as a share of GDP) and population estimates and projections (five year age groups, for our median age), retrieved 27 September 2026. Wage: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Periodic Labour Force Survey Annual Report 2025 (press release, 27 March 2026); European Central Bank, 2025 average rate; retrieved 27 September 2026. Key dates: Ministry of External Affairs, India, Lok Sabha unstarred question 2179 (1 August 2025) and List of Labour Mobility Agreements (as on May 2026); retrieved 27 September 2026.
More births than deaths, more leaving than arriving
Births exceed deaths by 13.6 million in 2024; net departures of 630,830 take under 5 percent
In thousands. In 2024 births minus deaths came to about 13.6 million and net migration to −630,830, so the population grew by about 13.0 million.
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators (net migration and crude birth and death rates from UN World Population Prospects 2024, whose estimates end in 2023; later years are its projection), retrieved 27 September 2026. Births minus deaths is our arithmetic on the crude rates. Not yet published: births minus deaths for 2025.
About 1.63 billion people by 2041 on the World Bank's projection
Estimated to 2025, then the World Bank's projection in the lighter line.
Source: World Bank, SP.POP.TOTL (World Development Indicators); World Bank, population projection based on UN World Population Prospects 2024; retrieved 27 September 2026.
The share aged 65 and over rises to 11.5% by 2041
Source: World Bank, population estimates and projections, retrieved 27 September 2026.
3.96 trillion US dollars in 2025, and the IMF forecast to 2031, by fiscal year from April
Real growth under each year: observed to 2025 (World Bank), the IMF forecast after, both on India's fiscal year from April, labelled by the year it begins. Sources: World Bank, NY.GDP.MKTP.CD; IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation; retrieved 27 September 2026.
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Reports449,110 clearances in 2025; in 2024 most went to the Gulf
Above the 2019 level since 2022, and up 16.0 percent in 2025
Sources: Ministry of External Affairs, India, Lok Sabha unstarred question 1863, answered 6 December 2024, Annexure A (2019 to 2022); Lok Sabha unstarred question 4609, answered 20 March 2026 (same table in Rajya Sabha unstarred question 3133, 19 March 2026) (2023 to 2025); retrieved 27 September 2026.
Holders of passports marked for the emigration check took 449,110 clearances in 2025. Up to December 2024, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait took about four in five; Europe is outside the count.
Up to December 2024, three Gulf states took 82.0%
The five largest destinations of the 355,851 emigration clearances of 2024 up to 1 December 2024.
Italy 13,620 and Germany 11,069 lead. EU jobs need no clearance, so India's register does not count them.
Sources: Ministry of External Affairs, India, Lok Sabha unstarred question 1863, answered 6 December 2024, Annexure A (the bars); Eurostat, migr_resfirst (the permits); retrieved 27 September 2026.
What the register counts, and what it does not
Counted: An emigration clearance under the Emigration Act, 1983: the permission a Protector of Emigrants gives on eMigrate to a holder of a passport marked emigration check required who leaves on a work visa for one of 18 notified countries.
Not counted: Everyone with an ordinary passport, which covers graduates and most skilled people, and every job outside the 18 countries. No European country is on the list, so India does not count departures to Europe.
Oman ranks first for citizens of India, then Kuwait and Bahrain
We rank destinations for citizens of India by the ease of entry for them first, then by the size of their flow. All ten below are in grade 1, the easiest of five. Portugal, which issued 23,090 of their 101,573 first EU residence permits for work in 2025, ranks 36th, in grade 3.
| Place and destination | Size, Werklist estimate 2027 to 2031 | Ease, share of the full score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 743,000 | 95.4% |
| 2 | 732,000 | 96.3% |
| 3 | 294,000 | 94.3% |
| 4 | 76,800 | 90.0% |
| 5 | 68,800 | 85.5% |
| 6 | 38,700 | 98.5% |
| 7 | 24,800 | 91.0% |
| 8 | 20,600 | 80.2% |
| 9 | 19,700 | 85.1% |
| 10 | 17,800 | 92.6% |
Source: Werklist ranking of destinations by corridor, run 2026.1-rk-15d, 29 September 2026, from the country records of edition 2026.1 and the arrivals of the latest year (Ministry of External Affairs, India, emigration clearances by country, 2024 up to 1 December 2024; Eurostat, migr_resfirst, 2025; Immigration Services Agency of Japan, 2025). Size: the Werklist estimate of each destination for 2027 to 2031 together, times the share of citizens of India in its count, rounded to three significant figures, in the unit of that count: Oman and Kuwait, foreign workers entering for work, modelled on each country's count of foreign workers, a count of people; Bahrain, new employment work permits (Labour Market Regulatory Authority); Japan, new entries on a working status of residence; the others, first residence permits for work (Eurostat).
Ease of entry first, then the size of the flow
Each destination is graded 1 to 5 on a score out of 100 for citizens of India: admission, where they file, the approval at home, the labour market test and the decision time, and the arrivals of the latest year. Within a grade the larger flow ranks first.
The sizes of Oman and Kuwait count people entering for work, five years together, modelled on each country's count of foreign employees; the clearances of page 5 (22,531 to Oman and 36,088 to Kuwait, 2024 to 1 December) cover only passports marked emigration check required, so the sizes stand several times above them. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, three of the five largest destinations of the emigration clearances, rank 20th to 22nd in grade 1: their size is not known. Portugal is 36th, in grade 3: its permits of 2024 mostly settled the papers of people already in the country, so they are not scored as arrivals.
Source: Werklist ranking of destinations by corridor, run 2026.1-rk-15d, 29 September 2026.
Twice the 2019 number; without Portugal, below 2022
First EU residence permits for work issued to citizens of India, by year, with the change on the year before.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons in the 27 EU countries to citizens of India, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
Italy rose every year after 2020; Germany is below 2022
Italy and Germany lead the hiring of Indians from abroad
Portugal's 23,090 of 2025 is a break in the series that settles the papers of people already there; without it the total was 78,483, 2.0 percent above 2024 and below the 82,445 of 2022. Italy rose every year from 1,516 in 2020 to 13,620, while Germany and Poland fell back from their 2022 highs of 12,902 and 12,126.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons in the 27 EU countries to citizens of India, by country of issue, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 29 September 2026; the totals of the seven centres: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, EU27, 2025, updated 28 September 2026, retrieved 29 September 2026.
Among the seven sourcing centres of Werklist, India's 101,573 first EU residence permits for work in 2025 were the most, ahead of Nepal 71,061, the Philippines 50,944, Bangladesh 29,626, Uzbekistan 22,928, Vietnam 14,794 and Indonesia 6,239.
| Destination | 2019 | 2024 | 2025 | Share 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4,361 | 7,225 | 23,090 | 22.7% | |
| 2,125 | 8,428 | 13,620 | 13.4% | |
| 8,283 | 8,358 | 11,069 | 10.9% | |
| 2,809 | 5,950 | 5,385 | 5.3% | |
| 876 | 10,324 | 4,371 | 4.3% | |
| 1,409 | 3,101 | 4,371 | 4.3% | |
| 2,130 | 3,354 | 4,161 | 4.1% | |
| 3,011 | 5,897 | 4,136 | 4.1% | |
| Other EU countries | 26,153 | 31,537 | 31,370 | 30.9% |
| All EU countries | 51,157 | 84,174 | 101,573 | 100.0% |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons in the 27 EU countries to citizens of India, by country of issue, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 29 September 2026; the totals of the seven centres: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, EU27, 2025, updated 28 September 2026, retrieved 29 September 2026.
Per working age resident, Nepal is 36 times India
First EU residence permits for work for every 100,000 residents aged 15 to 64
The first EU residence permits for work the 27 EU countries issue in a year to citizens of a country, divided by that country's residents aged 15 to 64. Both lines use the same two sources.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst (first residence permits for employment in the EU27, by citizenship), updated 11 September 2026; World Bank, SP.POP.1564.TO (residents aged 15 to 64); reference years 2019 to 2025, retrieved 27 September 2026. Werklist calculation.
India, 2025
Up from 5.5 in 2019.
Nepal, 2025
Up from 63.0 in 2019.
Measured against residents aged 15 to 64, citizens of India receive far fewer first EU residence permits for work than citizens of Nepal: 10.1 for every 100,000 in 2025 against 367.3. India's rate stepped up in 2022, from 5.1 to 9.1, dipped to 8.5 in 2024 and reached 10.1 in 2025. Nepal's more than doubled in 2022, to 157.3, and rose every year after. In permits India is still larger: 101,573 against 71,061. The data show when the rates moved, not why.
Agreements with European countries
Sources: Ministry of External Affairs, India, List of Labour Mobility Agreements, as on May 2026 (Denmark and France signed earlier); United Nations Treaty Series, registration 57098 (Portugal); retrieved 27 September 2026.
Portugal's minimum wage is 4.4 times a man's pay in India
The rules at home, as they stand on 27 September 2026
Under the Emigration Act, 1983, no citizen emigrates for work without clearance; in practice this binds passports marked emigration check required going to notified countries.
Such a passport holder going on a work visa to one of 18 notified countries applies on eMigrate, alone or through a registered agent.
A recruiting agent needs a registration certificate from the Protector General of Emigrants, and sub agents are not allowed; 2,358 agents were active in July 2025.
The ministry's guidance tells emigrants to pay an agent no more than 45 days of the contract wage, at most 20,000 rupees, against a receipt.
An insurance policy under the Pravasi Bharatiya Bima Yojana is mandatory for every clearance and can be bought on eMigrate.
For unskilled and farm workers and for women, an Indian embassy must attest the job contract; agents file the employer's demand letter and power of attorney.
No woman under 30 is cleared for any job in a notified country, and no clearance is given for Anguilla.
Sources: Ministry of External Affairs, India: Emigration Abroad for Employment and Guidelines for Emigration Clearance System (web pages); Lok Sabha unstarred question 2179, 1 August 2025; retrieved 27 September 2026.
Where the visa is issued
The embassy or visa centre that takes the application, for the four largest EU destinations.
Sources: Embassy of Portugal in New Delhi; Embassy of Italy in New Delhi; German Missions in India, Federal Foreign Office; Embassy of Poland in New Delhi; read 27 September 2026.
Unemployment at 15 to 24, 2025, against 13.4 percent worldwide
One young job seeker in six has no work; 25.6 percent of 15 to 24 year olds neither work nor study.
World Bank, SL.UEM.1524.ZS and SL.UEM.NEET.ZS, updated 2026-07-13
Portugal's minimum wage against regular pay in India
A month at Portugal's minimum equals over four months of a man's regular pay in India.
Eurostat, earn_mw_cur (Portugal, first and second half of 2026, 1,073 euro); wage at home as on page 3
More people aged 15 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026, on the World Bank's projection
Fifteen years add 108 million people of working age, so the pool of candidates keeps growing.
World Bank, SP.POP.1564.TO, retrieved 27 September 2026
About 85,500 permits in 2026, four scenarios from 2028
We expect about 85,500 permits in 2026, between 52,800 and 130,000: Portugal returns to its 2024 share, about 7,220 permits, and the other destinations issue about as many as in 2025. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is flat. From 2028 we give one line held flat and four scenarios, not forecasts. Italy's decree of 2 October 2025 caps its first permits at about 57,300 in 2026, India's part 13,600. Lithuania's 2026 quota ran out on 7 September, and filing closes on 1 November for citizens of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan; the sum of the destinations assumes others, India among them, take their places.
Permits in 2026, our estimate
between 52,800 and 130,000
Permits a year in 2031, the direction
Too wide for a yearly number; 2027 flat; the scenarios give 89,600 to 114,000 in 2031, held flat 84,200
Direction of the rules and of the count
Four scenarios give 89,600 to 114,000 permits a year in 2031, held flat 84,200
Permits issued to 2025, then our estimate with its range for 2026; 2027 as a direction, flat; from 2028 one line held flat, a stated assumption, and four scenarios in grey, not forecasts. Held flat stands at 84,200, not 101,573: each destination at its 2025 count, Croatia at its 2026 pace to August, Portugal at its 2024 share. No closures in Portugal, a scenario, carries Portugal's trend of 2021 to 2024, as if other routes replaced those closed in 2024 and 2025. Not drawn: closure in Lithuania, 94,900 in 2031, and quota lifted in Romania, 97,800; the court suspension in Romania lowers 2027 only. The labels at the line ends give 2041.
Source: Werklist estimate from Eurostat migr_resfirst (reference years to 2025, updated 11 September 2026); 2027: a direction, as its range is too wide for a yearly number. From 2028: held flat, a stated assumption, each destination at its 2026 base (the 2025 count; Croatia at the 2026 pace of the Ministry of the Interior, 44,646 to 31 August; Portugal at its 2024 share). Scenarios: sum of the destinations, the central lines of the EU destinations at the 2025 shares of their permits; open routes in Portugal, Portugal at 470 a year, the mean of 2013 to 2016; places raised in Italy, the line without the places cap of the decree of 2 October 2025; no closures in Portugal, its trend of 2021 to 2024 carried. Not drawn: closure in Lithuania; quota lifted and court suspension in Romania. Retrieved 29 September 2026. Values rounded to three significant figures; Low and High give the range of 2026.
Italy opens, Poland tightens, Portugal reverses, Germany holds
The four largest destinations move their rules four ways
The rules of the largest EU destinations, the instrument behind them, and their first EU residence permits for work issued to citizens of India from 2024 to 2025.
Decree-Law 37-A/2024 closed the expression of interest from 4 June 2024; Law 61/2025 the job seeker visa from 23 October 2025.
Decree of 2 October 2025: 164,850 places for 2026, rising to 166,850 for 2028; first permits capped near 57,300.
A record 108,091 first residence permits for work in 2025, all citizenships.
Act of 20 March 2025 lets counties close named jobs to foreigners, from 1 June 2025.
Sources: the instruments named, as in our country records of edition 2026.1; Germany: Eurostat, migr_resfirst; read 27 September 2026.
In the sum of the destinations, most of the rise to 2031 comes from Germany and Greece
Only the lines of the EU destinations enter the estimate; the rest is context.
108.35 million more people aged 15 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026.
7.6 percent in FY 2025/26, 6.5 projected for FY 2026/27; unemployment 4.9 percent.
In the sum of the destinations, a scenario: Germany from 11,900 in 2026 to 17,200 in 2031, Greece from 1,880 to 3,620, Lithuania from 3,280 to 4,780.
449,110 clearances cover 18 countries outside Europe: no ratio to Eurostat.
Sources: World Bank, SP.POP.1564.TO (UN World Population Prospects 2024); IMF, World Economic Outlook, as served on 27 September 2026; Italy, decree of 2 October 2025 (places); Ministry of External Affairs, India (clearances); Werklist destination lines from Eurostat migr_resfirst; retrieved 27 September 2026.
What could change this
Romania's quota (Government Decision 1169 of 30 December 2025) caps its permits in every line; the suspension of its shortage list (Court of Appeal Bucharest, 10 September 2026) lowers 2027 only.
Italy's decree of 2 October 2025
It sets 164,850 entries for 2026, rising to 166,850 for 2028, and first permits run at about 0.35 per place: about 57,300 in 2026 and 58,000 from 2028. The sum of the destinations carries the cap; with more places, places raised in Italy, a scenario, reaches 114,000 in 2031 against 96,400 for the sum of the destinations.
Portugal's Decree-Law 37-A/2024
From 4 June 2024 it closed residence on an expression of interest, and Law 61/2025 the job seeker visa. No count sizes them, so the sum of the destinations keeps Portugal at its 2024 share, about 7,220 a year; the scenarios open routes in Portugal and no closures in Portugal give 89,600 and 97,500 in 2031.
Lithuania's notice of 24 September 2026
Filing closes on 1 November 2026 for citizens of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan, and the 2026 quota of 24,706 (Order A1-723) ran out on 7 September. The sum of the destinations assumes others, India among them, take their places: India's part rises from 3,280 in 2026 to 4,780 in 2031. Left empty, closure in Lithuania gives 94,900 in 2031, a scenario.
How to read this report
What a first EU residence permit for work is
Eurostat's first permit for employment: the first residence permit, valid three months or more, that an EU country issues to a citizen of India for work. It gathers the single permit for residence and work, the EU Blue Card, permits for seasonal work and each country's other permits for work. Renewals are not counted.
What the range and the scenarios mean
Our estimate gives a yearly number with a low and a high end for 2026 only. For 2027 its range is too wide, so we give the direction, flat. From 2028 we give one line held flat, a stated assumption, and four scenarios, not forecasts. Observed numbers are solid lines, the estimate and the scenarios dashed.
How the estimate is made
We add up the EU countries that issue the permits: each destination's line times India's share of its permits in 2025, Portugal at its 2024 share: 85,500 in 2026. From 2028 this sum is one scenario; held flat keeps each base, open routes in Portugal holds Portugal at 470 a year, places raised in Italy lifts Italy's cap, no closures in Portugal carries Portugal's trend.
Numbers, dates and words
Past counts are printed exactly; estimates are rounded to three significant figures. Emigration clearances and Eurostat's first EU residence permits for work are two different counts. Permits are counted, not people, except the sizes of Oman and Kuwait on page 6, modelled counts of people entering for work.
Sources
Retrieved 27 September 2026; the ranking, the permits by country of issue (page 7) and the seven centres' totals on 29 September.
- Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits by reason, length of validity and citizenship, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ migr_resfirst - World Bank, World Development Indicators and population estimates and projections (population, age, births, deaths, net migration, GDP, employment, unemployment). data.worldbank.org
- Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship and country of issue, first residence permits for employment. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ migr_resfirst - International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026, real GDP growth. imf.org/
external/ datamapper - World Bank, personal remittances received as a share of GDP (BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS), unemployment and not in work or study aged 15 to 24 (SL.UEM.1524.ZS, SL.UEM.NEET.ZS, ILO estimate), population by five year age group. data.worldbank.org
- Eurostat, earn_mw_cur, monthly minimum wages. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ earn_mw_cur - Ministry of External Affairs, India, Lok Sabha unstarred question 4609, answered 20 March 2026 (same table in Rajya Sabha unstarred question 3133, 19 March 2026). www.mea.gov.in
- Ministry of External Affairs, India, Emigration Abroad for Employment; Guidelines for Emigration Clearance System; Lok Sabha question 2179 (1 August 2025) and 1863 (6 December 2024); List of Labour Mobility Agreements (May 2026). www.mea.gov.in
- Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, India, Periodic Labour Force Survey Annual Report 2025, press release of 27 March 2026. pib.gov.in
- European Central Bank, rupees per euro, 2025 annual average. data.ecb.europa.eu
- Embassies in New Delhi, visa pages of Portugal, Italy and Poland; German Missions in India. india.diplo.de
- Portugal, Decree-Law 37-A/2024, in force 4 June 2024, and Law 61/2025, in force 23 October 2025, as in our country record. diariodarepublica.pt
- Italy, Romania and Lithuania, Decree of the President of the Council of Ministers of 2 October 2025 on entries 2026 to 2028; Government Decision 1169 of 30 December 2025 and the Court of Appeal Bucharest, 10 September 2026; Order A1-723 of 10 December 2025 and the Migration Department notice of 24 September 2026; as in our country records. gazzettaufficiale.it
- United Nations Treaty Series, Agreement between Portugal and India on the recruitment of Indian citizens to work in Portugal, registration 57098. treaties.un.org
- Werklist, ranking of destinations by corridor, run 2026.1-rk-15d, 29 September 2026. werklist.com
Photographs and flags
Pexels: India Gate at night, Ranjeet Chauhan (cover); Mumbai skyline at night, Vijit Bagh (page 3); Kerala backwaters at sunset, Ravi Roshan; Marine Drive, Mumbai, Satish V; Hawa Mahal, Jaipur, AXP Photography; Amer Fort, Jaipur, AXP Photography; Varanasi from the Ganges, Ravi Jha (back cover). Flags: circle-flags by HatScripts, MIT licence.
What this report answers
How many first EU residence permits for work went to citizens of India each year since 2019?
101,573 in 2025, 20.7% more than in 2024 and about twice the 51,157 of 2019. Most of the rise is Portugal's one off count of 23,090; without Portugal, 78,483, 2.0% more than in 2024 and below the 82,445 of 2022.
Which EU countries issue the most of them, and which are growing?
Portugal issued the most in 2025, 23,090, on a one off count. Of the other destinations Italy leads with 13,620, higher every year since 2020, then Germany with 11,069; Poland fell from 12,126 in 2022 to 5,385.
How many emigration clearances does India issue, and why does no Indian count cover Europe?
449,110 emigration clearances in 2025, 16.0% more than in 2024. A clearance is needed only by holders of passports marked for the emigration check going to 18 notified countries, and no European country is on that list, so no Indian count covers Europe.
What rules apply at home before a worker from India can leave?
Under the Emigration Act, 1983, a holder of a passport marked emigration check required who leaves on a work visa for one of 18 notified countries needs a clearance on eMigrate, with insurance. The ministry tells emigrants to pay an agent at most 20,000 rupees.
How are the rules changing in the main destinations?
Italy opens, Poland tightens, Portugal reverses and Germany holds. Italy's decree sets 164,850 places for 2026, rising to 166,850 for 2028; Poland lets counties close named jobs to foreigners; Portugal closed residence on an expression of interest in 2024 and the job seeker visa in 2025.
How many first EU residence permits for work do we expect in 2026, and what comes after?
About 85,500 in 2026, between 52,800 and 130,000, as Portugal's one off count drops out. For 2027 the direction is flat, and rising in 2031. In 2031 held flat, a stated assumption, gives 84,200; four scenarios, not forecasts, run from 89,600 (open routes in Portugal) to 114,000 (places raised in Italy).
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