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Contents
In brief

The country
- 3
83.5 million people, 24 percent of the EU economy
- 4
More deaths than births, an older population

Where the market is now
- 5
First residence permits for work rose 40 percent in 2025
- 6
Below the EU rate, above its Western European peers' median
- 7
India leads, the Western Balkans hold 30 percent
- 8
Every listed origin rose in 2025, Ukraine fastest
- 9
Up to 50,000 Western Balkans approvals a year

The outlook
- 10
About 116,000 permits in 2026, between 71,900 and 176,000
- 11
Shares held at 2025, and what drives the lines
- 11
What could change this

Method and sources
- 12
How to read this report
- 12
Sources, photographs and flags
Cover: Alexanderplatz in Berlin at night, with the television tower and the Red Town Hall (CC BY 2.0). Photograph by abbilder, Wikimedia Commons.
Germany issued 108,091 first residence permits for work in 2025, 40.1 percent more than in 2024 and the most of any year from 2019. India received the most, 11,069; the six Western Balkan states together received 32,570 under a rule that allows up to 50,000 approvals a year. The rules are holding: the coalition agreement of 2025 plans to limit that rule to 25,000, and on 28 September 2026 the ordinance still reads 50,000. We expect about 116,000 permits in 2026, between 71,900 and 176,000; for 2027 a direction only, rising. In 2031 the count held flat gives 108,000 a year, the working age scenario 168,000 and the Western Balkans limit 152,000, both scenarios, not forecasts. Eurostat projects 3.68 million fewer people aged 20 to 64 by 2041.
First residence permits for work issued in 2025, up 40.1 percent on 2024
Permits in 2026, between 71,900 and 176,000
Permits a year in 2031, working age scenario; held flat 108,000, Western Balkans limit 152,000
Fewer people aged 20 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026
83.5 million people, 24 percent of the EU economy
83,467,117 people lived in Germany on 1 January 2026, 2,269,580 more than in 2015. Deaths have outnumbered births in every year since 2019, and net migration filled the gap in four of those seven years. GDP per head was 130 percent of the EU average in 2025, growth was 0.2 percent, and Eurostat projects 3.68 million fewer people aged 20 to 64 by 2041.

People living in Germany on 1 January 2026
2.8 percent more than in 2015, and 18.5 percent of the EU's 452.0 million. People aged 65 and over were 22.7 percent of the population in 2025.
GDP in 2025, billion euro at current prices
24.0 percent of the EU economy.
GDP per head in 2025
130 percent of the EU average of 41,700 euro in 2025. Counting higher prices at home, 115 percent, down from 126 percent in 2015.
Real growth in 2025
Against 1.4 percent across the EU. Over 2021 to 2025 the economy grew 5.1 percent in all, the EU grew 13.7 percent (our estimate from the yearly rates).
People aged 20 to 64 in work, 2025
Against 76.1 percent across the EU.
The 2023 skilled immigration law
Sources: Eurostat, demo_gind (population, updated 21 July 2026), nama_10_gdp and nama_10_pc (GDP, updated 21 September 2026), tec00114 (price adjusted GDP per head), tec00115 (growth), lfsi_emp_a (employment), demo_pjanbroad (age). All retrieved 27 September 2026. Figures for 2025 GDP, GDP per head and growth are provisional. Key dates: Act on the further development of skilled immigration of 16 August 2023, Federal Law Gazette 2023 I No. 217, articles 1, 3 and 12, retrieved 28 September 2026.
More deaths than births, an older population
Deaths outnumbered births by 352,347 in 2025, and net migration of 242,324 fell short
In 2025, 1,006,588 people died and 654,241 were born. Net migration added 242,324, so the population fell by 110,023.
Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (updated 21 July 2026), migr_imm1ctz and migr_emi1ctz (moves of a year or more), retrieved 27 September 2026. Net migration includes Eurostat's statistical adjustment. Not published: moves in and out for 2025.
About 81.59 million people by 2041 on Eurostat's projection
Observed to 2026, then Eurostat's 2025 projection in the lighter line.
Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (observed, updated 21 July 2026) and proj_25np (EUROPOP2025 baseline and migration tests, updated 11 June 2026), retrieved 27 September 2026.
The share aged 65 and over rises to 27%
Source: Eurostat, demo_pjanbroad (2025) and proj_25np (2041), retrieved 27 September 2026.
4,529.7 billion euro in 2025, and the IMF forecast to 2031
Real growth under each year: observed to 2025 (Eurostat, tec00115), the IMF forecast after. Sources: Eurostat, nama_10_gdp (2025 provisional); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation: the other years are the 2025 value moved by the real growth rates; retrieved 27 September 2026.
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ReportsFirst residence permits for work rose 40 percent in 2025
After the fall of 2024, the count passed its 2023 level
Germany issued 108,091 first residence permits for work in 2025, against 77,149 in 2024 and 72,635 in 2019.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
A first residence permit for work is the first permit to work, valid 3 months or more, that a citizen of a country outside the EU receives in Germany: the EU Blue Card, the permit for skilled workers and permits under the Employment Ordinance. Renewals are not counted.
Three in four permits of 2025 run for a year or more
The share valid for 12 months or more: 56.2 percent in 2019, 77.2 percent in 2025.
Share of permits valid for 12 months or more
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by length of validity, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
Eurostat's count and the national register for 2024
First residence permits for work, Eurostat, 2024
First residence permits for work, Central Register of Foreigners, 2024
The register counts every first permit for work of the year, 55 percent of them to people already living in Germany on another permit; Eurostat records such changes of status only in part.
Sources: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, updated 11 September 2026; Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, Monitoring of education and labour migration, annual report 2024, Central Register of Foreigners at 31 March 2025; retrieved 28 September 2026.
Below the EU rate, above its Western European peers' median
First residence permits for work per 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64
The first residence permits for work a country issues in a year, divided by the residents aged 20 to 64 living there on 1 January of that year. Only first permits are counted, as Eurostat counts them.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst (first residence permits for employment) and demo_pjangroup (residents aged 20 to 64 on 1 January), reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026 and 25 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026. Werklist calculation. The EU line: migr_resfirst and demo_pjangroup for the 27 EU countries (residents aged 20 to 64 in 2024 summed from single years of age, demo_pjan).
Per 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, by length of permit
| EU | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| All lengths | 2.2 | 1.3 | 4.9 |
| 12 months or more | 1.7 | 0.9 | 3.6 |
| 3 to 11 months | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.3 |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by length of validity and demo_pjangroup, 2025, retrieved 27 September 2026. Werklist calculation.
Germany issued 2.2 first residence permits for work per 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, less than half the EU rate of 4.9 and above 1.96, the median of its seven Western European peers (Austria, Belgium, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Switzerland). The chart and the table show France, the peer that issued the most permits in 2025; its rate was 1.3. For permits of 12 months or more Germany issued 1.7 and France 0.9.
Germany's rules for work permits since 2023
Sources: Federal Law Gazette 2023 I No. 217; Residence Act, section 20a, and Employment Ordinance, section 26(2), gesetze-im-internet.de; coalition agreement of CDU, CSU and SPD, 21st legislative period, lines 2983 to 2985; retrieved 28 September 2026.
India leads, the Western Balkans hold 30 percent
India received 11,069 permits in 2025, 10.2 percent, up from 8,358 in 2024; Kosovo followed with 8,866. The seven sourcing centres in the chart beside received 17,445, 16.1 percent: India 11,069, the Philippines 2,057, Vietnam 1,691, Indonesia 1,139, Uzbekistan 928, Bangladesh 287 and Nepal 274.
| Citizenship | Permits 2024 | Permits 2025 | Share 2024 | Share 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8,358 | 11,069 | 10.8% | 10.2% | |
| 5,122 | 8,866 | 6.6% | 8.2% | |
| 5,686 | 7,751 | 7.4% | 7.2% | |
| 3,939 | 6,291 | 5.1% | 5.8% | |
| 4,065 | 5,895 | 5.3% | 5.5% | |
| 3,638 | 5,794 | 4.7% | 5.4% | |
| 2,234 | 5,105 | 2.9% | 4.7% | |
| 3,279 | 5,097 | 4.3% | 4.7% | |
| 3,712 | 5,041 | 4.8% | 4.7% | |
| 3,023 | 3,588 | 3.9% | 3.3% | |
| Other origins | 34,093 | 43,594 | 44.2% | 40.3% |
| All origins | 77,149 | 108,091 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship, reference years 2024 and 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
India alone received 10.2% of the permits issued in 2025
Shares of the first residence permits for work issued in 2025, by citizenship.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship, reference year 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
The seven centres received 17,445 permits in Germany and 20,796 in its seven peers together
Permits for citizens of the seven sourcing centres in 2025, against all first residence permits for work, in Germany and its seven Western European peers.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship, reference year 2025, updated 11 and 28 September 2026, retrieved 29 and 30 September 2026.
Every listed origin rose in 2025, Ukraine fastest
First residence permits for work by citizenship, 2019 to 2025
The count fell to 51,023 in 2020, rose to 102,411 in 2023, fell to 77,149 in 2024 and reached 108,091 in 2025. Ukraine went from 2,234 in 2024 to 5,105 in 2025, and Uzbekistan from 459 to 928.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, by citizenship, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 28 September 2026, retrieved 30 September 2026.
The seven sourcing centres of Werklist received 17,445 in 2025, 16.1 percent: India 11,069, the Philippines 2,057, Vietnam 1,691, Indonesia 1,139, Uzbekistan 928, Bangladesh 287 and Nepal 274.
| Citizenship | 2019 | 2024 | 2025 | Share 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8,283 | 8,358 | 11,069 | 10.2% | |
| 5,176 | 5,122 | 8,866 | 8.2% | |
| 3,255 | 5,686 | 7,751 | 7.2% | |
| 4,297 | 3,939 | 6,291 | 5.8% | |
| 6,833 | 4,065 | 5,895 | 5.5% | |
| 5,313 | 3,638 | 5,794 | 5.4% | |
| 1,477 | 2,234 | 5,105 | 4.7% | |
| 4,301 | 3,279 | 5,097 | 4.7% | |
| 1,316 | 2,016 | 2,057 | 1.9% | |
| 439 | 840 | 1,691 | 1.6% | |
| 726 | 945 | 1,139 | 1.1% | |
| 124 | 459 | 928 | 0.9% | |
| 70 | 240 | 287 | 0.3% | |
| 214 | 205 | 274 | 0.3% | |
| Other origins | 30,811 | 36,123 | 45,847 | 42.4% |
| All origins | 72,635 | 77,149 | 108,091 | 100.0% |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, by citizenship, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 28 September 2026, retrieved 30 September 2026.
Up to 50,000 Western Balkans approvals a year
The rules as they stand on 28 September 2026
Up to 50,000 approvals a year let citizens of six Western Balkan states take any job, after a priority check.
Without a qualification recognised in Germany: two years of experience in the last five and a two year qualification recognised at home.
That route asks a salary of at least 45 percent of the pension contribution ceiling, unless a collective agreement applies.
On the accelerated procedure the mission offers a visa appointment within three weeks and decides, as a rule, within three weeks of a complete application.
The opportunity card gives up to a year to look for work, with up to 20 hours of work a week.
Sources: Employment Ordinance (BeschV), sections 6 and 26(2); Residence Regulation (AufenthV), section 31a; Residence Act (AufenthG), section 20a; gesetze-im-internet.de, retrieved 28 September 2026.
About 3,680,000 fewer people aged 20 to 64 by 2041
Eurostat projects 48,639,655 in 2026 and 44,959,900 in 2041, a fall of 7.6 percent. With lower migration the fall is 5,453,487, with higher migration 1,877,941.
Source: Eurostat, proj_25np, EUROPOP2025 baseline and migration sensitivity tests, updated 11 June 2026; 2025 observed, demo_pjangroup, updated 25 September 2026; retrieved 27 September 2026.
Citizens of Germany who left in 2024, down from 156,822 in 2022
In 2024, 71,762 citizens came back, so Germany lost 79,524 of its own citizens on balance.
Eurostat, migr_emi1ctz, retrieved 27 September 2026
Unemployment in 2025, against 6.0 percent across the EU
The share of the labour force out of work, Eurostat's yearly rate for 2025.
Eurostat, une_rt_a, retrieved 27 September 2026
Share of the national count of 2024 to people with no earlier permit
The other 55 percent went to people who already held another residence permit in Germany.
Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, retrieved 28 September 2026
About 116,000 permits in 2026, between 71,900 and 176,000
We expect about 116,000 first residence permits for work in 2026. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is rising. In 2031 the count held flat gives 108,000, the Western Balkans limit 152,000 and the working age scenario 168,000. The planned limit of 25,000 approvals a year on the Western Balkans rule, whose six states received 32,570 permits in 2025, has no regulation yet; only its scenario counts it.
Permits in 2026, our estimate
between 71,900 and 176,000
Permits a year in 2031, the working age scenario, not a forecast
held flat 108,000; Western Balkans limit 152,000, a scenario
Direction of the rules and of the count
Permits in 2027: rising; the range is too wide for a yearly number
The working age scenario reaches 168,000 by 2031; held flat, 108,000
Permits issued to 2025, then our estimate with its range for 2026; for 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number and the direction is rising. The working age scenario, not a forecast, moves toward 258,000 a year, 1.05 times the yearly loss of people aged 20 to 64, while the rules hold (Employment Ordinance, section 26(2)). The Western Balkans limit, a scenario, applies the planned limit of 25,000 approvals a year from 2027, about 16,300 fewer permits a year; the plan has no date and no regulation. No peers' line is drawn: Germany's 2.21 permits a year per 1,000 people aged 20 to 64 are above 1.96, the median of its seven Western European peers (page 6).
Source: Werklist estimate from Eurostat migr_resfirst (reference years to 2025, updated 11 September 2026); the lines from 2027: working age scenario, moving toward 258,000 a year, 1.05 times the yearly loss of people aged 20 to 64, halving the gap every 12 years; held flat, the count held at 108,000; Western Balkans limit, about 16,300 a year below the working age scenario from 2027, from the coalition agreement of CDU, CSU and SPD (lines 2983 to 2985) and the 32,570 permits Eurostat counts for the six states in 2025; retrieved 27 September 2026. Values rounded to three significant figures; Low and High give the range of 2026.
Shares held at 2025, and what drives the lines
Nepal's share holds at about 0.3% from 2025 to 2035
Our estimate, which holds the shares of 2025. Range for 2031: 0.2 to 0.4 percent. India holds 10.2 percent in 2031, the Philippines 1.9, Vietnam 1.6, Indonesia 1.1, Uzbekistan 0.9 and Bangladesh 0.3 percent.
Source: Werklist estimate on Eurostat migr_resfirst by citizenship, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026. Shares of each year's permits, to 2035, held at the shares of 2025.
What drives the working age scenario
The working age and the count's own trend enter the scenario; the rest stands beside it.
7.6 percent fewer from 2026 to 2041. It enters the working age scenario: toward 258,000 a year, 1.05 times this loss.
The mean yearly change of the last five years, damped by half each year: a factor of 1.16 at most.
151,286 left and 71,762 returned, all ages.
The IMF's projection of real GDP growth for the year the estimate starts.
Of the labour force, the IMF's projection for the year the estimate starts.
Against 1.96, the median of its seven peers, and 4.92 across the EU.
Sources: Eurostat proj_25np, migr_emi1ctz and migr_imm1ctz; the Werklist country record, edition 2026.1; IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026; retrieved 27 September 2026.
What could change this
One change is drawn as a scenario on the page before; two sit outside our estimate. Each could move the numbers on this page and the one before.
A Western Balkans limit of 25,000
The coalition agreement of CDU, CSU and SPD says the Western Balkans rule will be limited to 25,000 a year. On 28 September 2026 the ordinance still allows 50,000 approvals. Its scenario gives 152,000 permits in 2031, against 168,000 on the working age scenario.
A digital agency for skilled immigration
The same agreement plans a Work and Stay Agency with one platform for labour migration and the recognition of qualifications. Faster procedures would raise the count. We have not read a law that creates it.
Slow growth at home
The IMF expects growth of 0.8 percent in 2026 and 1.2 percent in 2027, after 0.2 percent in 2025. Growth enters none of our lines: no term for it has been scored against the past counts.
How to read this report
What a first residence permit for work is
The first permit to work, of 3 months or more, a citizen of a country outside the EU receives (in German law a residence title for employment): the EU Blue Card, the skilled worker permit and Employment Ordinance permits. Renewals are not counted. Changes of status inside Germany count only in part.
What the range and the lines mean
Our estimate gives a yearly number with a low and a high end for 2026 only; for 2027 its range is too wide, so we give the direction, rising. After that we give the held line, a stated assumption, and two scenarios. Observed numbers are solid lines, estimates dashed ones.
How the estimate is made
From 108,091 permits in 2025 we estimate 116,000 in 2026, between 71,900 and 176,000. The working age scenario moves toward 258,000 a year, 1.05 times the yearly loss of people aged 20 to 64, with the count's own trend (a factor of 1.16 at most). Held flat keeps 108,000; the Western Balkans limit runs about 16,300 lower from 2027.
Numbers, dates and words
Past counts are printed exactly; estimates are rounded to three significant figures. The comparison with the Western European peers is our arithmetic on Eurostat data. Permits are counted, not people; people appear only where we speak of the population.
Sources
Every source retrieved 27 to 30 September 2026.
- Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits by reason, length of validity and citizenship, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ migr_resfirst - Eurostat, demo_gind, demo_pjangroup and demo_pjanbroad, population, births, deaths and age. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - Eurostat, migr_imm1ctz and migr_emi1ctz, immigration and emigration by citizenship. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - Eurostat, proj_25np, EUROPOP2025 population projection, baseline and migration sensitivity tests, updated 11 June 2026. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ proj_25np - Eurostat, nama_10_gdp, nama_10_pc, tec00114 and tec00115, GDP, GDP per head and growth. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - Eurostat, lfsi_emp_a and une_rt_a, employment and unemployment. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026, real GDP growth. imf.org/
external/ datamapper - Federal Office for Migration and Refugees, Monitoring of education and labour migration, annual report 2024, from the Central Register of Foreigners at 31 March 2025. bamf.de
- Federal Ministry of Justice, Residence Act, section 20a; Employment Ordinance, sections 6 and 26; Residence Regulation, section 31a; consolidated texts. gesetze-im-internet.de
- Federal Law Gazette, Act on the further development of skilled immigration of 16 August 2023, 2023 I No. 217. recht.bund.de/
bgbl/ 1/ 2023/ 217 - CDU, CSU and SPD, Coalition agreement, 21st legislative period, lines 421 to 425 and 2983 to 2985. koalitionsvertrag2025.de
Photographs and flags
Wikimedia Commons: Alexanderplatz, Berlin (CC BY 2.0), abbilder (cover); the Reichstag, Berlin (CC BY-SA 3.0 de), Ansgar Koreng (page 3); steelworks in Duisburg (CC BY-SA 4.0), Mabit1; Frankfurt am Main at night (CC BY-SA 4.0), Jörg Braukmann; container cranes, port of Hamburg (CC BY-SA 4.0), Matti Blume; housing in Leipzig (CC BY-SA 4.0), Alexander Richter; Saxon Switzerland at sunrise (CC BY-SA 4.0), Sorin Pilat (back cover). Flags: circle-flags by HatScripts, MIT licence.
What this report answers
How many first residence permits for work has Germany issued each year since 2019?
108,091 in 2025, 40.1% more than the 77,149 of 2024 and the most of any year from 2019. The count fell to 51,023 in 2020 and rose to 102,411 in 2023.
Which countries do the new hires come from?
India received the most, 11,069 permits in 2025, followed by Kosovo with 8,866 and Türkiye with 7,751. The six Western Balkan states together received 32,570, and every listed origin rose in 2025.
How does Germany compare with the EU and its peers?
2.2 first residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, less than half the EU rate of 4.9 and above 1.96, the median of seven Western European peers. France issued 1.3.
How long do the permits run?
77.2% of the permits of 2025 run for 12 months or more, up from 56.2% in 2019.
What is the Western Balkans rule?
The Employment Ordinance allows up to 50,000 approvals a year for citizens of six Western Balkan states to take any job, after a priority check. The coalition agreement of 2025 plans to limit it to 25,000; on 28 September 2026 it still reads 50,000.
How is the working age population changing?
Eurostat projects 48,639,655 people aged 20 to 64 in 2026 and 44,959,900 in 2041, a fall of 7.6 percent, about 3,680,000 fewer.
How many first residence permits for work do we expect Germany to issue in 2026, and what comes after?
About 116,000 in 2026, between 71,900 and 176,000; for 2027 a direction only, rising. In 2031 the count held flat, a stated assumption, gives 108,000 a year; the working age scenario gives 168,000 and the Western Balkans limit 152,000, scenarios, not forecasts.
The full report answers each question with its figures, charts and sources. Request the full report