Workforce Migration Report 2026: Germany

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Alexanderplatz in Berlin at night, with the television tower and the Red Town Hall (CC BY 2.0)
Workforce Migration Report 2026
Germany
108,091
First residence permits for work issued in 2025

Contents

In brief

Germany issued 108,091 first residence permits for work in 2025, 40.1 percent more than in 2024 and the most of any year from 2019. India received the most, 11,069; the six Western Balkan states together received 32,570 under a rule that allows up to 50,000 approvals a year. The rules are holding: the coalition agreement of 2025 plans to limit that rule to 25,000, and on 28 September 2026 the ordinance still reads 50,000. We expect about 116,000 permits in 2026, between 71,900 and 176,000; for 2027 a direction only, rising. In 2031 the count held flat gives 108,000 a year, the working age scenario 168,000 and the Western Balkans limit 152,000, both scenarios, not forecasts. Eurostat projects 3.68 million fewer people aged 20 to 64 by 2041.

Observed

First residence permits for work issued in 2025, up 40.1 percent on 2024

108,091
Our estimate

Permits in 2026, between 71,900 and 176,000

116,000
Scenario, not a forecast

Permits a year in 2031, working age scenario; held flat 108,000, Western Balkans limit 152,000

168,000
Projection of the source

Fewer people aged 20 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026

3,680,000

83.5 million people, 24 percent of the EU economy

83,467,117 people lived in Germany on 1 January 2026, 2,269,580 more than in 2015. Deaths have outnumbered births in every year since 2019, and net migration filled the gap in four of those seven years. GDP per head was 130 percent of the EU average in 2025, growth was 0.2 percent, and Eurostat projects 3.68 million fewer people aged 20 to 64 by 2041.

The Reichstag, Berlin (CC BY-SA 3.0 de)

People living in Germany on 1 January 2026

83,467,117

2.8 percent more than in 2015, and 18.5 percent of the EU's 452.0 million. People aged 65 and over were 22.7 percent of the population in 2025.

GDP in 2025, billion euro at current prices

4,529.7

24.0 percent of the EU economy.

GDP per head in 2025

54,240euro

130 percent of the EU average of 41,700 euro in 2025. Counting higher prices at home, 115 percent, down from 126 percent in 2015.

Real growth in 2025

0.2%

Against 1.4 percent across the EU. Over 2021 to 2025 the economy grew 5.1 percent in all, the EU grew 13.7 percent (our estimate from the yearly rates).

People aged 20 to 64 in work, 2025

81.1%

Against 76.1 percent across the EU.

The 2023 skilled immigration law

18 Nov 2023The first part took effect, with the new rules for the EU Blue Card.
1 Jun 2024The opportunity card took effect: up to a year in Germany to look for work.

Sources: Eurostat, demo_gind (population, updated 21 July 2026), nama_10_gdp and nama_10_pc (GDP, updated 21 September 2026), tec00114 (price adjusted GDP per head), tec00115 (growth), lfsi_emp_a (employment), demo_pjanbroad (age). All retrieved 27 September 2026. Figures for 2025 GDP, GDP per head and growth are provisional. Key dates: Act on the further development of skilled immigration of 16 August 2023, Federal Law Gazette 2023 I No. 217, articles 1, 3 and 12, retrieved 28 September 2026.

More deaths than births, an older population

Deaths outnumbered births by 352,347 in 2025, and net migration of 242,324 fell short

In 2025, 1,006,588 people died and 654,241 were born. Net migration added 242,324, so the population fell by 110,023.

Births minus deaths, thousandsNet migration, thousands
0+5002019202020212022202320242025Births minus deathsNet migrationChange in the populationMoved inMoved out−161+309+147834497−212+201−12667404−228+310+82801459−328+209−1191,977453−335+673+3381,303580−331+452+1211,079584−352+242−110

Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (updated 21 July 2026), migr_imm1ctz and migr_emi1ctz (moves of a year or more), retrieved 27 September 2026. Net migration includes Eurostat's statistical adjustment. Not published: moves in and out for 2025.

About 81.59 million people by 2041 on Eurostat's projection

Observed to 2026, then Eurostat's 2025 projection in the lighter line.

78 million80 million82 million84 million86 millionEurostat's projection81.20 million in 201583.47 million in 202681.59 million in 204184.23 million, more migration79.00 million, less migration201520202026203120362041

Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (observed, updated 21 July 2026) and proj_25np (EUROPOP2025 baseline and migration tests, updated 11 June 2026), retrieved 27 September 2026.

The share aged 65 and over rises to 27%

0 to 1415 to 6465 and over
2025, observed13.9%63.4%22.7%2041, Eurostat's projection12.6%60.0%27.4%

Source: Eurostat, demo_pjanbroad (2025) and proj_25np (2041), retrieved 27 September 2026.

4,529.7 billion euro in 2025, and the IMF forecast to 2031

Billion euro at current prices of 2025IMF forecast
4,2004,4004,6004,8005,0004,529.7 in 20254,779.8 in 203120172.9%20191.1%20214.0%2023-1.0%20250.2%20271.2%20290.9%20310.6%

Real growth under each year: observed to 2025 (Eurostat, tec00115), the IMF forecast after. Sources: Eurostat, nama_10_gdp (2025 provisional); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation: the other years are the 2025 value moved by the real growth rates; retrieved 27 September 2026.

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What this report answers

  • How many first residence permits for work has Germany issued each year since 2019?

    108,091 in 2025, 40.1% more than the 77,149 of 2024 and the most of any year from 2019. The count fell to 51,023 in 2020 and rose to 102,411 in 2023.

  • Which countries do the new hires come from?

    India received the most, 11,069 permits in 2025, followed by Kosovo with 8,866 and Türkiye with 7,751. The six Western Balkan states together received 32,570, and every listed origin rose in 2025.

  • How does Germany compare with the EU and its peers?

    2.2 first residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, less than half the EU rate of 4.9 and above 1.96, the median of seven Western European peers. France issued 1.3.

  • How long do the permits run?

    77.2% of the permits of 2025 run for 12 months or more, up from 56.2% in 2019.

  • What is the Western Balkans rule?

    The Employment Ordinance allows up to 50,000 approvals a year for citizens of six Western Balkan states to take any job, after a priority check. The coalition agreement of 2025 plans to limit it to 25,000; on 28 September 2026 it still reads 50,000.

  • How is the working age population changing?

    Eurostat projects 48,639,655 people aged 20 to 64 in 2026 and 44,959,900 in 2041, a fall of 7.6 percent, about 3,680,000 fewer.

  • How many first residence permits for work do we expect Germany to issue in 2026, and what comes after?

    About 116,000 in 2026, between 71,900 and 176,000; for 2027 a direction only, rising. In 2031 the count held flat, a stated assumption, gives 108,000 a year; the working age scenario gives 168,000 and the Western Balkans limit 152,000, scenarios, not forecasts.

The full report answers each question with its figures, charts and sources. Request the full report