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Contents
In brief

The country
- 3
69.1 million people, and an economy near the EU average
- 4
Deaths now outnumber births; arrivals carry the growth

Where the market is now
- 5
Permits fell 13.2 percent in 2025, after the 2023 peak
- 6
France issues fewer permits per resident than five of seven peers
- 7
Morocco and Tunisia received the most permits, and both fell
- 8
Permits to the seven centres: 4,267 in 2019 and 4,496 in 2025
- 9
Hires need a work authorisation; fewer aged 20 to 64 by 2041

The outlook
- 10
About 50,800 permits in 2026, between 31,400 and 77,100
- 11
Origin shares held, and the drivers beside the lines
- 11
What could change this

Method and sources
- 12
How to read this report
- 12
Sources, photographs and flags
Cover: Paris at dusk, the Seine and the Île de la Cité. Photograph by DXR, Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0).
France issued 50,848 first residence permits for work in 2025, 13.2 percent fewer than in 2024 and below the peak of 58,762 in 2023. That is 1.3 for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64, against 2.2 in Germany and 4.9 across the EU. Morocco and Tunisia were the largest origins; the seven Werklist sourcing centres received 8.8 percent. The rules hold: an employer needs a work authorisation, and off the shortage list must advertise the job first. The count fell in 2025, so our estimate does not carry its earlier rise: about 50,800 permits in 2026; for 2027 a direction only, flat. Held flat, a stated assumption, the count stays at 50,800 a year in 2031. The peers' rate, 67,700 in 2031, is a scenario, not a forecast.
First residence permits for work issued in 2025, down 13.2 percent on 2024
Permits in 2026, between 31,400 and 77,100
Permits a year in 2031, held flat; peers' rate 67,700, a scenario
Fewer people aged 20 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026
69.1 million people, and an economy near the EU average
France has 69.1 million people, 2,654,156 more than in 2015. In 2025 deaths outnumbered births, for the first time in the years shown here, so the growth came from migration: 233,329 more people arrived than left. The economy grew 0.8 percent in 2025, below the EU's 1.4, and output per head is 104 percent of the EU average. Eurostat projects 0.7 percent fewer people aged 20 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026.

People living in France on 1 January 2026
4.0 percent more than in 2015, and 15.3 percent of the EU's 452.0 million. People aged 65 and over were 21.9 percent of the population in 2025.
GDP in 2025, billion euro at current prices
15.9 percent of the EU economy.
GDP per head in 2025
104 percent of the EU average of 41,700 euro in 2025. Counting higher prices at home, 98 percent, down from 106 percent in 2015.
Real growth in 2025
Against 1.4 percent across the EU. Over 2021 to 2025 the economy grew 14.1 percent in all, the EU grew 13.7 percent (our estimate from the yearly rates).
People aged 20 to 64 in work, 2025
Against 76.1 percent across the EU.
Two recent rules on foreigners
Sources: Eurostat, demo_gind (population, updated 21 July 2026), nama_10_gdp and nama_10_pc (GDP, updated 21 September 2026), tec00114 (price adjusted GDP per head), tec00115 (growth), lfsi_emp_a (employment), demo_pjanbroad (age). All retrieved 27 September 2026. Figures for 2025 GDP, GDP per head and growth are provisional. Key dates: Légifrance, Law 2024-42 of 26 January 2024 (Journal officiel of 27 January 2024) and the order of 21 May 2025 (Journal officiel of 22 May 2025), retrieved 28 September 2026.
Deaths now outnumber births; arrivals carry the growth
In 2025 deaths outnumbered births for the first time in the years shown, and net migration added 233,329
In 2025, 647,963 people died and 644,343 were born. Net migration added 233,329, so the population grew by 229,709.
Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (updated 21 July 2026), migr_imm1ctz and migr_emi1ctz (moves of a year or more), retrieved 27 September 2026. Net migration includes Eurostat's statistical adjustment. Not published: moves in and out for 2025.
About 70.71 million people by 2041 on Eurostat's projection
Observed to 2026, then Eurostat's 2025 projection in the lighter line.
Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (observed, updated 21 July 2026) and proj_25np (EUROPOP2025 baseline and migration tests, updated 11 June 2026), retrieved 27 September 2026.
The share aged 65 and over rises to 26 percent
Source: Eurostat, demo_pjanbroad (2025) and proj_25np (2041), retrieved 27 September 2026.
2,991.1 billion euro in 2025, and the IMF forecast to 2031
Real growth under each year: observed to 2025 (Eurostat, tec00115), the IMF forecast after. Sources: Eurostat, nama_10_gdp (2025 provisional); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation: the other years are the 2025 value moved by the real growth rates; retrieved 27 September 2026.
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ReportsPermits fell 13.2 percent in 2025, after the 2023 peak
Permits rose to 58,762 in 2023, held in 2024 and fell 13.2 percent in 2025
France issued 50,848 first residence permits for work in 2025, against 58,603 in 2024 and 39,652 in 2019.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
A first residence permit for work is the first residence document of 3 months or more France issues to a citizen of a country outside the EU to take a job. Renewals are not counted.
Seven in ten permits of 2025 run a year or more
Valid 12 months or more: 84.0 percent in 2019, 70.2 percent in 2025.
Share of permits valid for 12 months or more
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by length of validity, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
France issues fewer permits per resident than five of seven peers
First residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64
The first residence permits for work a country issues in a year, divided by the residents aged 20 to 64 living there on 1 January of that year. These are first permits only, as Eurostat counts them.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst (first residence permits for employment) and demo_pjangroup (residents aged 20 to 64 on 1 January), reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026 and 25 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026. Werklist calculation. The EU line: migr_resfirst and demo_pjangroup for the 27 EU countries (residents aged 20 to 64 in 2024 summed from single years of age, demo_pjan).
Per 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, by length of permit
| EU | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| All lengths | 1.3 | 2.2 | 4.9 |
| 12 months or more | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3.6 |
| 3 to 11 months | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1.3 |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by length of validity and demo_pjangroup, 2025, retrieved 27 September 2026. Werklist calculation.
Per 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64, France issued 1.3 first residence permits for work in 2025, against 2.2 in Germany and 4.9 across the EU. Five of its seven Western European peers issued more; Austria issued about as many (1.3) and Belgium fewer (1.1). France's rate has stayed between 0.7 and 1.6 since 2019. On permits of 12 months or more France issued 0.9 and Germany 1.7.
France and its seven peers, 2025, per 1,000 aged 20 to 64
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, 2025, updated 11 September 2026, over the residents aged 20 to 64 (Eurostat demo_pjangroup and proj_25np); Werklist calculation; retrieved 27 September 2026. The peers: the EU and EFTA members of Western Europe.
Morocco and Tunisia received the most permits, and both fell
Morocco received 8,229 permits in 2025 and Tunisia 5,486, together 27.0 percent, but 5,206 fewer than in 2024; with Algeria the three account for three quarters of the fall of 7,755. The seven Werklist sourcing centres received 4,496 together, 8.8 percent: India 2,319, Bangladesh 689, Indonesia 681, the Philippines 404, Vietnam 270, Nepal 106 and Uzbekistan 27.
| Citizenship | Permits 2024 | Permits 2025 | Share 2024 | Share 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10,888 | 8,229 | 18.6% | 16.2% | |
| 8,033 | 5,486 | 13.7% | 10.8% | |
| 3,598 | 3,047 | 6.1% | 6.0% | |
| 2,489 | 2,547 | 4.2% | 5.0% | |
| 2,684 | 2,319 | 4.6% | 4.6% | |
| 2,218 | 2,250 | 3.8% | 4.4% | |
| 2,687 | 2,092 | 4.6% | 4.1% | |
| 1,419 | 1,888 | 2.4% | 3.7% | |
| 1,702 | 1,776 | 2.9% | 3.5% | |
| 1,456 | 1,651 | 2.5% | 3.2% | |
| Other origins | 21,429 | 19,563 | 36.6% | 38.5% |
| All origins | 58,603 | 50,848 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship, reference years 2024 and 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
Morocco alone received 16.2 percent of the permits issued in 2025
Shares of the first residence permits for work issued in 2025, by citizenship.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship, reference year 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
The seven centres received 4,496 permits in France and 17,445 in Germany
Permits for citizens of the seven sourcing centres (Nepal, India, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia and Uzbekistan) in 2025, against all first residence permits for work, in France and its seven Western European peers.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship, reference year 2025, updated 11 September 2026 (Ireland, Switzerland and Luxembourg 28 September 2026), retrieved 27 and 30 September 2026.
Permits to the seven centres: 4,267 in 2019 and 4,496 in 2025
First residence permits for work by citizenship, 2019 to 2025
Citizens of Morocco received the most permits in every year since 2019 and citizens of Tunisia the second most; both counts fell in 2025. The seven centres received 4,267 permits in 2019 (10.8 percent) and 4,496 in 2025 (8.8 percent). The other origins, 32,637 permits in 2025, are not drawn.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, by citizenship, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 28 September 2026, retrieved 30 September 2026.
Of the seven Werklist sourcing centres, India received 2,319 permits in 2025 (4.6 percent), Bangladesh 689 (1.4), Indonesia 681 (1.3), the Philippines 404 (0.8), Vietnam 270 (0.5), Nepal 106 (0.2) and Uzbekistan 27 (0.1); Indonesia rose from 93 in 2019.
| Citizenship | 2019 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Share 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6,847 | 10,836 | 10,888 | 8,229 | 16.2% | |
| 6,039 | 8,700 | 8,033 | 5,486 | 10.8% | |
| 2,471 | 2,625 | 2,684 | 2,319 | 4.6% | |
| 1,029 | 916 | 634 | 689 | 1.4% | |
| 93 | 241 | 581 | 681 | 1.3% | |
| 470 | 413 | 506 | 404 | 0.8% | |
| 166 | 167 | 243 | 270 | 0.5% | |
| 28 | 93 | 117 | 106 | 0.2% | |
| 10 | 21 | 13 | 27 | 0.1% | |
| Other origins | 22,499 | 34,750 | 34,904 | 32,637 | 64.2% |
| All origins | 39,652 | 58,762 | 58,603 | 50,848 | 100.0% |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, by citizenship, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 28 September 2026, retrieved 30 September 2026.
Hires need a work authorisation; fewer aged 20 to 64 by 2041
The rules as they stand on 27 September 2026
The employer applies online for a work authorisation before the hire; no paper file is accepted, whether the worker is in France or abroad.
Off the list of occupations with hiring difficulties, the job must first be advertised for three weeks with the public employment service, with no suitable candidate.
The administration decides within two months; no answer after two months means refusal.
A permanent contract leads to the card salarié, a fixed term one to the card travailleur temporaire; both are first issued for one year.
Seasonal work is limited to six months a year, and each new seasonal contract needs its own work authorisation.
Sources: Service Public, Autorisation de travail d'un salarié étranger (checked 18 June 2026) and Carte de séjour salarié ou travailleur temporaire (checked 1 May 2026); Légifrance, order of 21 May 2025 (Journal officiel of 22 May 2025); retrieved 28 September 2026.
About 284,000 fewer people aged 20 to 64 by 2041
Eurostat projects 38,146,040 in 2026 and 37,861,596 in 2041, a fall of 0.7 percent. With lower migration the fall is 1,263,387; with higher migration the rise is 714,891.
Source: Eurostat, proj_25np, EUROPOP2025 baseline and migration sensitivity tests, updated 11 June 2026; 2025 observed, demo_pjangroup, updated 25 September 2026; retrieved 27 September 2026.
Citizens of France who left in 2024, down from 204,693 in 2019
57,032 more left than returned in 2024, all ages, against 38.1 million people aged 20 to 64.
Eurostat, migr_emi1ctz, retrieved 27 September 2026
Unemployment in 2025, against 6.0 percent across the EU
Of the labour force aged 15 to 74. Off the shortage list, an employer must advertise a job for three weeks first.
Eurostat, une_rt_a, retrieved 27 September 2026
Gross minimum wage a month, second half of 2026, up from 1,802 in 2025
Germany's minimum wage is 2,343 euro a month in the same half year.
Eurostat, earn_mw_cur, updated 31 July 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026
About 50,800 permits in 2026, between 31,400 and 77,100
We expect about 50,800 first residence permits for work in 2026, the count of 2025 held. The count fell 13.2 percent in 2025, so the mean yearly rise of the last five years, 7.5 percent, is not carried. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is flat. Held flat, the count stays at 50,800 in 2031; the peers' rate, a scenario, gives 67,700. A further fall lies inside the range for 2026, 31,400 to 77,100.
Permits in 2026, our estimate
between 31,400 and 77,100
Permits a year in 2031, held flat, a stated assumption
peers' rate 67,700, a scenario
Direction of the rules and of the count
Permits in 2027: flat; the range is too wide for a yearly number
Held flat, the count stays at 50,800 permits a year to 2041
Permits issued to 2025, then our estimate with its range for 2026; for 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number and the direction is flat. The peers' rate is a scenario, not a forecast: France moving from 1.33 first residence permits for work a year per 1,000 people aged 20 to 64 to 2.21, the median of its seven peers (Austria 1.28, Belgium 1.08, Switzerland 2.29, Germany 2.21, Ireland 5.21, Luxembourg 4.43 and the Netherlands 1.96), over ten years. The count would follow the peers' rate (84,400 in 2036, against 50,800 held flat) only if France loosened its admission rules; no source we read names such a law in draft.
Source: Werklist estimate from Eurostat migr_resfirst (reference years to 2025, updated 11 September 2026); the lines from 2027: held flat, the count of 2025 held at 50,800 (the demand of the falling working age lies below it, and the trend is not carried after the fall of 2025); peers' rate, the median of the 2025 rates of the seven peers, Eurostat migr_resfirst over EUROPOP2025; retrieved 27 September 2026. Values rounded to three significant figures; the table gives the lines in 2031, 2036 and 2041 only, each line in a row of its own; Low and High give the range of 2026.
Origin shares held, and the drivers beside the lines
Each origin keeps its 2025 share to 2033: India 4.6 percent, Nepal 0.2
Our estimate, which holds the shares of 2025. Range for 2031: 0.1 to 0.3 percent. The other centres hold their 2025 shares in 2031: India 4.6 percent, Bangladesh 1.4, Indonesia 1.3, the Philippines 0.8, Vietnam 0.5 and Uzbekistan 0.1.
Source: Werklist estimate on Eurostat migr_resfirst by citizenship, updated 28 September 2026, retrieved 30 September 2026. Shares of each year's permits, to 2033, held at the shares of 2025.
The drivers beside the lines
None of these numbers enters the lines; they stand beside them.
0.7 percent fewer from 2026 to 2041. It enters no line: the demand it implies lies below the count.
Not carried into the lines: the count fell 13.2 percent in 2025, and after a fall in the last observed year the trend carried is not positive.
183,617 left and 126,585 returned, all ages.
The IMF's projection of real GDP growth for the year the estimate starts.
Of the labour force, the IMF's projection for the year the estimate starts.
Against 2.21, the median of its seven peers, and 4.92 across the EU.
Sources: Eurostat proj_25np (EUROPOP2025); the Werklist country record, edition 2026.1; Eurostat migr_emi1ctz and migr_imm1ctz; IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026; retrieved 27 September 2026.
What could change this
Three changes sit outside our estimate. Each could move the numbers on this page and the one before.
The end of the regularisation
Article 27 of Law 2024-42 lets people who worked 12 months in a shortage occupation and lived 3 years in France obtain a residence card, until 31 December 2026. Its end or an extension would move the count.
The recast single permit directive
Directive (EU) 2024/1233 of 24 April 2024 had to be transposed by 21 May 2026. How France applies it is not in our estimate; a simpler procedure would push the count up.
A new shortage list
The order of 21 May 2025 replaced the list of 1 April 2021. A new list would widen or narrow the jobs an employer may fill from abroad without advertising first.
How to read this report
What a first residence permit for work is
Eurostat counts the first residence permit of 3 months or more a citizen of a country outside the EU receives to work. In France: the long stay visa serving as a residence permit and the cards salarié, travailleur temporaire and travailleur saisonnier. Renewals and stays of under 3 months are not counted.
What the range and the lines mean
Our estimate gives a yearly number with a low and a high end for 2026 only; for 2027 its range is too wide, so we give the direction, flat. After that we give the count held flat, a stated assumption, and the peers' rate, a scenario. Observed numbers are solid lines, estimates dashed ones.
How the estimate is made
We start from the 50,848 permits of 2025. The count fell 13.2 percent in 2025, so its mean yearly rise of the last five years, 7.5 percent, is not carried: about 50,800 in 2026, with a range from a back test on Eurostat first permits. The held line keeps 50,800; the demand of the falling working age lies below it.
Numbers, dates and words
Past counts are printed exactly; estimates are rounded to three significant figures. The comparison with Germany, the seven peers and the EU is our arithmetic on Eurostat data. Permits are counted, not people; people appear only where we speak of the population.
Sources
Every source retrieved 27 to 30 September 2026.
- Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits by reason, length of validity and citizenship, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ migr_resfirst - Eurostat, demo_gind, demo_pjangroup and demo_pjanbroad, population, births, deaths and age. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - Eurostat, migr_imm1ctz and migr_emi1ctz, immigration and emigration by citizenship. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - Eurostat, proj_25np, EUROPOP2025 population projection, baseline and migration sensitivity tests, updated 11 June 2026. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ proj_25np - Eurostat, nama_10_gdp, nama_10_pc, tec00114 and tec00115, GDP, GDP per head and growth. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - Eurostat, lfsi_emp_a and une_rt_a, employment and unemployment. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026, real GDP growth. imf.org/
external/ datamapper - Légifrance, Law 2024-42 of 26 January 2024 on immigration and integration, articles 27 and 30, and the order of 21 May 2025 on occupations with hiring difficulties. legifrance.gouv.fr
- Service Public, Autorisation de travail d'un salarié étranger (checked 18 June 2026); Carte de séjour salarié ou travailleur temporaire (checked 1 May 2026). service-public.gouv.fr
- EUR-Lex, Directive (EU) 2024/1233, recast single permit, document information. eur-lex.europa.eu
- Eurostat, earn_mw_cur, monthly minimum wages, updated 31 July 2026. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser
Photographs and flags
Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0): Paris at dusk, DXR (cover); Marseille, the old port, Tiia Monto (page 3); container cranes, Le Havre, Philippe Alès. Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0): Lyon from Fourvière, Geoprofi Lars; metro works, Saint-Denis, Chris93; Boulevard Haussmann, Paris, Celette. Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0): Mont-Saint-Michel at sunset, Mike Norton (back cover). Flags: circle-flags by HatScripts, MIT licence.
What this report answers
How many first residence permits for work has France issued each year since 2019?
50,848 in 2025, 13.2% fewer than the 58,603 of 2024 and below the peak of 58,762 in 2023. In 2019 France issued 39,652.
Which countries do the new hires come from?
Citizens of Morocco received 8,229 permits in 2025 and citizens of Tunisia 5,486, together 27.0%, both fewer than in 2024. The seven Werklist sourcing centres received 4,496, 8.8%, India 2,319 of them.
How does France compare with the EU and its peers?
1.3 first residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, against 2.2 in Germany and 4.9 across the EU. Of seven Western European peers only Austria and Belgium issued fewer.
How long do the permits run?
70.2% of the permits of 2025 run for 12 months or more, down from 84.0% in 2019; 26.9% run for 6 to 11 months.
Which rules apply to employers who hire from abroad?
The employer applies online for a work authorisation before the hire. Off the list of occupations with hiring difficulties the job must first be advertised for three weeks, and the administration decides within two months.
How is the working age population changing?
Eurostat projects 38,146,040 people aged 20 to 64 in 2026 and 37,861,596 in 2041, a fall of 0.7 percent, about 284,000 fewer.
How many first residence permits for work do we expect France to issue in 2026, and what comes after?
About 50,800 in 2026, the count of 2025 held, between 31,400 and 77,100. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is flat. Held flat, a stated assumption, the count stays at 50,800 a year in 2031; the peers' rate, 67,700, is a scenario, not a forecast.
The full report answers each question with its figures, charts and sources. Request the full report