Workforce Migration Report 2026: Estonia

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Tallinn at dusk, the Old Town roofs with the business district behind
Workforce Migration Report 2026
Estonia
1,098
First residence permits for work issued in 2025

Contents

In brief

Port cranes

The country

  1. 3

    1.36 million people, and fewer each year since 2024

  2. 4

    More deaths than births, and fewer arrivals

 Rotermann Quarter, Tallinn

Where the market is now

  1. 5

    Permits have more than halved since 2022

  2. 6

    Fewer permits per resident than Latvia and Lithuania

  3. 7

    Ukraine leads, India and Uzbekistan follow

  4. 8

    Ukraine's share down, Uzbekistan up

  5. 9

    A quota of 1,292, and 28,400 fewer aged 20 to 64 by 2041

 Tower cranes

The outlook

  1. 10

    About 1,030 permits in 2026, between 640 and 1,560

  2. 11

    Origin shares held at 2025, and the estimate's drivers

  3. 11

    What could change this

 Tallinn Old Town in snow

Method and sources

  1. 12

    How to read this report

  2. 12

    Sources, photographs and flags

Cover: Tallinn at dusk, the Old Town roofs with the business district behind. Photograph by Sergei Gussev, Pexels.

Estonia's route for work on a residence permit is small, and it is shrinking. It issued 1,098 first residence permits for work in 2025, 22.1 percent fewer than in 2024 and less than half the 2,341 of 2022; two thirds of the 2025 fall was Ukrainian. That is 1.4 per 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64, against 4.9 across the EU. Registrations of short term employment, outside this count, numbered about 4,500 in 2026 to late September. Hiring on a residence permit runs through a yearly quota of 1,292 places, a labour test and a wage floor. We expect about 1,030 permits in 2026; for 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number, and the direction is flat. In 2031 the count held flat, a stated assumption, gives 1,090 a year; the working age scenario, 1,170, and the peers' rate, 5,950, are scenarios, not forecasts.

Observed

First residence permits for work issued in 2025, down 22.1 percent on 2024

1,098
Our estimate

Permits in 2026, between 640 and 1,560

1,030
Scenario, not a forecast

Permits a year in 2031, working age scenario; held flat 1,090

1,170
Projection of the source

Fewer people aged 20 to 64 by 2041 than in 2026

28,400

1.36 million people, and fewer each year since 2024

Estonia has 1.36 million people, 47,474 more than in 2015. Deaths outnumbered births by 6,448 in 2025, against 1,302 in 2019; arrivals, most of them in 2022, more than made up for it until 2024. Since then the population has fallen. Output per head is 73 percent of the EU average, and Eurostat projects 3.6 percent fewer people aged 20 to 64 by 2041.

Toompea at sunset

People living in Estonia on 1 January 2026

1,360,745

3.6 percent more than in 2015, and 0.3 percent of the EU's 452.0 million. People aged 65 and over were 20.9 percent of the population in 2025.

GDP in 2025, billion euro at current prices

41.9

0.2 percent of the EU economy.

GDP per head in 2025

30,570euro

73 percent of the EU average of 41,700 euro in 2025. Counting lower prices at home, 79 percent, up from 77 percent in 2015.

Real growth in 2025

1.3%

Against 1.4 percent across the EU. Over 2021 to 2025 the economy grew 7.4 percent in all, the EU grew 13.7 percent (our estimate from the yearly rates).

People aged 20 to 64 in work, 2025

81.7%

Against 76.1 percent across the EU.

Schengen and the euro

21 December 2007Full member of Schengen: checks at land and sea borders end.
1 January 2011The euro replaces the kroon, at 15.6466 kroon per euro.

Sources: Eurostat, demo_gind (population, updated 21 July 2026), nama_10_gdp and nama_10_pc (GDP, updated 21 September 2026), tec00114 (price adjusted GDP per head), tec00115 (growth), lfsi_emp_a (employment), demo_pjanbroad (age). All retrieved 27 September 2026. Figures for 2025 GDP, GDP per head and growth are provisional. Council Decision 2007/801/EC (Schengen) and Council Regulation (EU) No 671/2010 (the euro in Estonia), EUR-Lex, retrieved 27 September 2026.

More deaths than births, and fewer arrivals

Deaths outnumbered births by 6,448 in 2025, and net migration took away 2,802 more

In 2025, 15,688 people died and 9,240 were born. Net migration took away 2,802, so the population fell by 9,250.

Births minus deathsNet migration
0+20,000+40,0002019202020212022202320242025Births minus deathsNet migrationChange in the populationMoved inMoved out−1,302+5,371+4,06918,25912,801−2,602+3,781+1,17916,20912,427−5,315+7,043+1,72819,52412,481−5,669+39,757+34,08849,4149,657−5,053+13,856+8,80326,39912,543−6,066+1,374−4,69218,63417,260−6,448−2,802−9,250

Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (updated 21 July 2026), migr_imm1ctz and migr_emi1ctz (moves of a year or more), retrieved 27 September 2026. Net migration includes Eurostat's statistical adjustment. Not published: moves in and out for 2025.

About 1.30 million people by 2041 on Eurostat's projection

Observed to 2026, then Eurostat's 2025 projection in the lighter line.

1.25 million1.30 million1.35 million1.40 millionEurostat's projection1.31 million in 20151.36 million in 20261.30 million in 20411.34 million, more migration1.26 million, less migration201520202026203120362041

Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (observed, updated 21 July 2026) and proj_25np (EUROPOP2025 baseline and migration tests, updated 11 June 2026), retrieved 27 September 2026.

The share aged 65 and over rises to 26%

0 to 1415 to 6465 and over
2025, observed15.6%63.5%20.9%2041, Eurostat's projection11.6%62.8%25.7%

Source: Eurostat, demo_pjanbroad (2025) and proj_25np (2041), retrieved 27 September 2026.

41.9 billion euro in 2025, and the IMF forecast to 2031

Billion euro at current prices of 2025IMF forecast
3540455041.9 in 202546.7 in 203120175.6%20193.7%20218.3%2023-2.9%20251.3%20271.9%20292.1%20311.7%

Real growth under each year: observed to 2025 (Eurostat, tec00115), the IMF forecast after. Sources: Eurostat, nama_10_gdp (2025 provisional); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation: the other years are the 2025 value moved by the real growth rates; retrieved 27 September 2026.

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What this report answers

  • How many first residence permits for work has Estonia issued each year since 2019?

    1,098 in 2025, 22.1% fewer than the 1,409 of 2024 and less than half the 2,341 of 2022. Two thirds of the fall of 2025 was Ukrainian.

  • Which countries do the new hires come from, and which are growing?

    Ukraine remained the largest origin with 267 permits in 2025, down from 478, followed by India with 118 and Uzbekistan with 100. Uzbekistan grew from 3 in 2019; the Philippines received 39 and Nepal 22.

  • How does Estonia compare with its neighbours per resident?

    1.4 first residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, the fourth lowest in the EU, against 3.9 in Latvia, 24.2 in Lithuania, 2.9 in Finland and 4.9 across the EU.

  • Which rules apply to employers who hire from abroad?

    A yearly quota of 1,292 places in 2026, a labour test by the Unemployment Insurance Fund for each post, and pay of at least 2,092 euro a month since 5 March 2026. The permit is tied to an employer registered in Estonia.

  • How is the working age population changing?

    Eurostat projects 785,836 people aged 20 to 64 in 2026 and 757,425 in 2041: about 28,400 fewer, a fall of 3.6 percent.

  • How many first residence permits for work do we expect Estonia to issue in 2026, and what comes after?

    About 1,030 in 2026, between 640 and 1,560. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is flat. In 2031 the count held flat, a stated assumption, gives 1,090 a year; the working age scenario, not a forecast, gives 1,170.

The full report answers each question with its figures, charts and sources. Request the full report