Workforce Migration Report 2026: Croatia

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The Croatian National Theatre in Zagreb at night
Workforce Migration Report 2026
Croatia
47,382
First residence permits for work issued in 2025

Contents

In brief

Croatia issued 47,382 first residence permits for work in 2025, 44.6 percent fewer than at the 2024 peak, yet still 21.1 for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64, against 4.9 across the EU; most run under a year. On the national count the market is 3.6 times larger: the ministry, which also counts renewals and seasonal permits, issued 170,723 permits for residence and work. The amended Foreigners Act, in force since 4 June 2026, sets stricter terms for employers and keeps admission without a quota, and the ministry counted 30.1 percent fewer permits for new employment from January to August. Our estimate for 2026 is about 33,100, between 20,500 and 50,200; for 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number: the count is below 2025 and level with 2026. From 2027 we hold the count flat at 33,100 a year, a stated assumption, not a forecast. Eurostat projects 189,000 fewer people aged 20 to 64 by 2041.

Observed

First residence permits for work, 2025

47,382
Our estimate

Permits in 2026, 20,500 to 50,200

33,100
A stated assumption, not a forecast

Permits a year in 2031, held flat

33,100
Projection of the source

Fewer aged 20 to 64 by 2041

189,000

3.9 million people, older, catching up with the EU

Croatia has 3.9 million people, 304,913 fewer than in 2015. Deaths outnumber births every year, and until 2021 more people left than arrived; since 2023 arrivals have more than filled the gap. Output per head is 57 percent of the EU average, 78 percent counting lower prices. Eurostat projects 8.5 percent fewer people aged 20 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026.

Dubrovnik at sunset

People living in Croatia on 1 January 2026

3,876,002

7.3 percent fewer than in 2015, and 0.9 percent of the EU's 452.0 million. People aged 65 and over were 23.3 percent of the population in 2025.

GDP in 2025, billion euro at current prices

93.0

0.5 percent of the EU economy.

GDP per head in 2025

23,950euro

57 percent of the EU average of 41,700 euro in 2025. Counting lower prices at home, 78 percent, up from 61 percent in 2015.

Real growth in 2025

3.4%

Against 1.4 percent across the EU. Over 2021 to 2025 the economy grew 34.6 percent in all, the EU grew 13.7 percent (our estimate from the yearly rates).

People aged 20 to 64 in work, 2025

74.4%

Against 76.1 percent across the EU.

No quota, then stricter terms

1 January 2021The yearly quota ends; a labour market test takes its place.
4 June 2026Amended Foreigners Act: 90 day decisions, stricter terms for employers.

Sources: Eurostat, demo_gind (population, updated 21 July 2026), nama_10_gdp and nama_10_pc (GDP, updated 21 September 2026), tec00114 (price adjusted GDP per head), tec00115 (growth), lfsi_emp_a (employment), demo_pjanbroad (age). All retrieved 27 September 2026. Figures for 2025 GDP, GDP per head and growth are provisional. Key dates: Foreigners Act, Narodne novine 133/2020, article 261, and the amending act, Narodne novine 55/2026, article 70; gazette text, retrieved 27 September 2026.

Deaths outnumber births, arrivals now fill the gap

Deaths outnumbered births by 17,528 in 2025, and since 2023 arrivals have more than filled the gap

In 2025, 50,007 people died and 32,479 were born. Net migration added 19,180, so the population grew by 1,652.

Births minus deathsNet migration
−20,0000+20,000+40,0002019202020212022202320242025Births minus deathsNet migrationChange in the populationMoved inMoved out−15,659−19,506−35,16537,72640,148−21,178−19,307−40,48533,41434,046−26,204−4,517−30,72135,91240,424−23,096+11,685−11,41157,97246,287−19,105+30,178+11,07369,39639,218−19,011+31,394+12,38370,39138,997−17,528+19,180+1,652

Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (updated 21 July 2026), migr_imm1ctz and migr_emi1ctz (moves of a year or more), retrieved 27 September 2026. Net migration includes Eurostat's statistical adjustment. Not published: moves in and out for 2025.

About 3.63 million people by 2041 on Eurostat's projection

Observed to 2026, then Eurostat's 2025 projection in the lighter line.

3.4 million3.6 million3.8 million4.0 million4.2 million4.4 millionEurostat's projection4.18 million in 20153.88 million in 20263.63 million in 20413.76 million, more migration3.49 million, less migration201520202026203120362041

Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (observed, updated 21 July 2026) and proj_25np (EUROPOP2025 baseline and migration tests, updated 11 June 2026), retrieved 27 September 2026.

The share aged 65 and over rises to 27%

0 to 1415 to 6465 and over
2025, observed13.8%62.9%23.3%2041, Eurostat's projection12.3%60.9%26.8%

Source: Eurostat, demo_pjanbroad (2025) and proj_25np (2041), retrieved 27 September 2026.

93.0 billion euro in 2025, and the IMF forecast to 2031

Billion euro, 2025 pricesIMF forecast
608010012093.0 in 2025108.1 in 203120173.3%20193.1%202112.6%20233.8%20253.4%20272.6%20292.5%20312.5%

Real growth under each year. Sources: Eurostat, nama_10_gdp and tec00115 (2025 provisional); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation from the 2025 value; retrieved 27 September 2026.

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What this report answers

  • How many first residence permits for work has Croatia issued each year since 2019?

    47,382 in 2025, 44.6% fewer than the 85,574 of 2024, the peak, and close to the 46,587 of 2019. Permits nearly tripled from 2021 to 2024.

  • Which countries do the new hires come from, and which are growing?

    Nepal leads with 10,300 permits in 2025, 21.7%, ahead of Bosnia and Herzegovina with 6,465 and Serbia with 6,358. Of the ten largest origins only the Philippines grew, to 5,981; Bangladesh fell from 9,928 to 651.

  • How does Croatia compare with its neighbours per resident?

    21.1 first residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, six times Bulgaria's 3.4 and four times the EU's 4.9, after a peak of 38.2 in 2024. Most of them run 6 to 11 months.

  • Which rules apply to employers who hire from abroad?

    No yearly cap since 2021, but a labour market test unless the job is on the shortage list. Since June 2026 the employer's staff from Croatia, the rest of the European Economic Area or Switzerland must equal at least 20% of its staff from outside the EU, and the police decide within 90 days.

  • How is the working age population changing?

    Eurostat projects 2,237,186 people aged 20 to 64 in 2026 and 2,047,833 in 2041: about 189,000 fewer, a fall of 8.5 percent.

  • How many first residence permits for work do we expect Croatia to issue in 2026, and what comes after?

    About 33,100 in 2026, between 20,500 and 50,200, as the ministry counted 30.1 percent fewer permits for new employment to 31 August. For 2027 the count is below 2025 and level with 2026. From 2027 the line holds 33,100 a year, a stated assumption, not a forecast.

The full report answers each question with its figures, charts and sources. Request the full report