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Contents
In brief

The country
- 3
3.9 million people, older, catching up with the EU
- 4
Deaths outnumber births, arrivals now fill the gap

Where the market is now
- 5
Residence permits for work peaked in 2024, then nearly halved
- 6
Croatia issues six times as many permits per resident as Bulgaria
- 7
Nepal leads, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia follow
- 8
Nepal stayed the largest origin in 2025, with 21.7%
- 9
No cap, stricter terms, 189,000 fewer aged 20 to 64

The outlook
- 10
About 33,100 permits in 2026, between 20,500 and 50,200
- 11
Origins held at their 2025 shares, and the drivers
- 11
What could change this

Method and sources
- 12
How to read this report
- 12
Sources, photographs and flags
Cover: The Croatian National Theatre in Zagreb at night. Photograph by Damir K, Pexels.
Croatia issued 47,382 first residence permits for work in 2025, 44.6 percent fewer than at the 2024 peak, yet still 21.1 for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64, against 4.9 across the EU; most run under a year. On the national count the market is 3.6 times larger: the ministry, which also counts renewals and seasonal permits, issued 170,723 permits for residence and work. The amended Foreigners Act, in force since 4 June 2026, sets stricter terms for employers and keeps admission without a quota, and the ministry counted 30.1 percent fewer permits for new employment from January to August. Our estimate for 2026 is about 33,100, between 20,500 and 50,200; for 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number: the count is below 2025 and level with 2026. From 2027 we hold the count flat at 33,100 a year, a stated assumption, not a forecast. Eurostat projects 189,000 fewer people aged 20 to 64 by 2041.
First residence permits for work, 2025
Permits in 2026, 20,500 to 50,200
Permits a year in 2031, held flat
Fewer aged 20 to 64 by 2041
3.9 million people, older, catching up with the EU
Croatia has 3.9 million people, 304,913 fewer than in 2015. Deaths outnumber births every year, and until 2021 more people left than arrived; since 2023 arrivals have more than filled the gap. Output per head is 57 percent of the EU average, 78 percent counting lower prices. Eurostat projects 8.5 percent fewer people aged 20 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026.

People living in Croatia on 1 January 2026
7.3 percent fewer than in 2015, and 0.9 percent of the EU's 452.0 million. People aged 65 and over were 23.3 percent of the population in 2025.
GDP in 2025, billion euro at current prices
0.5 percent of the EU economy.
GDP per head in 2025
57 percent of the EU average of 41,700 euro in 2025. Counting lower prices at home, 78 percent, up from 61 percent in 2015.
Real growth in 2025
Against 1.4 percent across the EU. Over 2021 to 2025 the economy grew 34.6 percent in all, the EU grew 13.7 percent (our estimate from the yearly rates).
People aged 20 to 64 in work, 2025
Against 76.1 percent across the EU.
No quota, then stricter terms
Sources: Eurostat, demo_gind (population, updated 21 July 2026), nama_10_gdp and nama_10_pc (GDP, updated 21 September 2026), tec00114 (price adjusted GDP per head), tec00115 (growth), lfsi_emp_a (employment), demo_pjanbroad (age). All retrieved 27 September 2026. Figures for 2025 GDP, GDP per head and growth are provisional. Key dates: Foreigners Act, Narodne novine 133/2020, article 261, and the amending act, Narodne novine 55/2026, article 70; gazette text, retrieved 27 September 2026.
Deaths outnumber births, arrivals now fill the gap
Deaths outnumbered births by 17,528 in 2025, and since 2023 arrivals have more than filled the gap
In 2025, 50,007 people died and 32,479 were born. Net migration added 19,180, so the population grew by 1,652.
Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (updated 21 July 2026), migr_imm1ctz and migr_emi1ctz (moves of a year or more), retrieved 27 September 2026. Net migration includes Eurostat's statistical adjustment. Not published: moves in and out for 2025.
About 3.63 million people by 2041 on Eurostat's projection
Observed to 2026, then Eurostat's 2025 projection in the lighter line.
Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (observed, updated 21 July 2026) and proj_25np (EUROPOP2025 baseline and migration tests, updated 11 June 2026), retrieved 27 September 2026.
The share aged 65 and over rises to 27%
Source: Eurostat, demo_pjanbroad (2025) and proj_25np (2041), retrieved 27 September 2026.
93.0 billion euro in 2025, and the IMF forecast to 2031
Real growth under each year. Sources: Eurostat, nama_10_gdp and tec00115 (2025 provisional); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation from the 2025 value; retrieved 27 September 2026.
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ReportsResidence permits for work peaked in 2024, then nearly halved
Permits nearly tripled from 2021 to 2024, then fell 44.6% in 2025
Croatia issued 47,382 first residence permits for work in 2025, against 85,574 in 2024 and 46,587 in 2019.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
A first residence permit for work is the first permit for residence and work (or EU Blue Card) that a citizen of a country outside the EU receives to take a job in Croatia. Renewals and seasonal permits are left out; the ministry's own count of permits for new employment was 80,365 in 2025.
Seven in ten run for 6 to 11 months
The share valid for 12 months or more: 29.8 percent in 2019, 7.5 percent in 2025.
Share of permits valid for 12 months or more
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by length of validity, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
Eurostat's count and the ministry's count, 2025
First residence permits for work, Eurostat, 2025
Permits for residence and work, Ministry of the Interior, 2025
The ministry also counts renewals (70,275) and seasonal permits (20,083); even its 80,365 permits for new employment exceed Eurostat's count, as most run under a year and a holder can receive more than one in a year.
Sources: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, updated 11 September 2026; Ministry of the Interior, monthly statistics of permits for residence and work, December 2025; retrieved 27 September 2026.
Croatia issues six times as many permits per resident as Bulgaria
First residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64
The first residence permits for work a country issues in a year, divided by the residents aged 20 to 64 living there on 1 January of that year; the third line is the EU. These are first residence permits only, as Eurostat counts them.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst (first residence permits for employment) and demo_pjangroup (residents aged 20 to 64 on 1 January), reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026 and 25 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026. Werklist calculation. The EU line: migr_resfirst and demo_pjangroup for the 27 EU countries (residents aged 20 to 64 in 2024 summed from single years of age, demo_pjan).
Per 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, by length of permit
| EU | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All lengths | 21.1 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.9 |
| 12 months or more | 1.6 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 3.6 |
| 6 months or more | 16.9 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.8 |
| 3 to 5 months | 4.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by length of validity and demo_pjangroup, 2025, updated 11 and 25 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026. Werklist calculation.
Croatia issued 21.1 first residence permits for work per 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, six times Bulgaria's 3.4 and four times the EU's 4.9, after 38.2 in 2024. Of its permits, 72.5 percent run 6 to 11 months and 20.1 percent 3 to 5 months; on permits of 6 months or more it issues 16.9 per 1,000.
How Bulgaria limits hiring per employer
Sources: Bulgaria, Labour Migration and Labour Mobility Act, article 7(1), consolidated text on lex.bg, as amended by State Gazette 52 of 2025; strategy.bg consultation 12064. Retrieved 27 September 2026.
Nepal leads, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia follow
Citizens of Nepal received 10,300 permits in 2025, 41 percent fewer than in 2024. Of the ten largest origins, only the Philippines grew. Bangladesh, the fourth largest origin in 2024 with 9,928 permits, fell to 651 in 2025, a larger fall than Nepal's.
| Citizenship | Permits 2024 | Permits 2025 | Share 2024 | Share 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17,428 | 10,300 | 20.4% | 21.7% | |
| 9,412 | 6,465 | 11.0% | 13.6% | |
| 10,006 | 6,358 | 11.7% | 13.4% | |
| 5,769 | 5,981 | 6.7% | 12.6% | |
| 10,324 | 4,371 | 12.1% | 9.2% | |
| 4,065 | 2,616 | 4.8% | 5.5% | |
| 3,895 | 1,865 | 4.6% | 3.9% | |
| 3,907 | 1,755 | 4.6% | 3.7% | |
| 9,928 | 651 | 11.6% | 1.4% | |
| 228 | 223 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 187 | 119 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| Other origins | 10,425 | 6,678 | 12.2% | 14.1% |
| All origins | 85,574 | 47,382 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship, reference years 2024 and 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
Nepal alone received 21.7% of the permits issued in 2025
The eleven origins named here received 85.9%. The other 14.1% went to many smaller origins, the largest of them Kosovo with 1,508.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship, reference year 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
The seven sourcing centres received 23,510 permits in Croatia in 2025, 49.6% of its total
Permits in 2025 for citizens of the seven sourcing centres, in Croatia and its six peers, against all first residence permits for work. Their share is largest in Bulgaria, 63.2 percent; next come Romania, 55.8, Slovakia, 50.9, and Croatia, 49.6.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst by citizenship, reference year 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026.
Nepal stayed the largest origin in 2025, with 21.7%
First residence permits for work by citizenship, 2019 to 2025
Permits fell from 85,574 in 2024 to 47,382 in 2025. Nepal fell from 17,428 to 10,300, India from 10,324 to 4,371 and Bangladesh from 9,928 to 651; the Philippines rose to 5,981, the only large origin that grew.
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, by citizenship, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 29 September 2026.
First residence permits for work in 2025 for the seven sourcing centres: Nepal 10,300, the Philippines 5,981, India 4,371, Uzbekistan 1,865, Bangladesh 651, Indonesia 223 and Vietnam 119.
| Citizenship | 2019 | 2024 | 2025 | Share 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 825 | 17,428 | 10,300 | 21.7% | |
| 17,007 | 9,412 | 6,465 | 13.6% | |
| 10,120 | 10,006 | 6,358 | 13.4% | |
| 545 | 5,769 | 5,981 | 12.6% | |
| 876 | 10,324 | 4,371 | 9.2% | |
| 4,041 | 4,065 | 2,616 | 5.5% | |
| 73 | 3,895 | 1,865 | 3.9% | |
| 12 | 3,907 | 1,755 | 3.7% | |
| 101 | 9,928 | 651 | 1.4% | |
| 8 | 228 | 223 | 0.5% | |
| 65 | 187 | 119 | 0.3% | |
| Other origins | 12,914 | 10,425 | 6,678 | 14.1% |
| All origins | 46,587 | 85,574 | 47,382 | 100.0% |
Source: Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits issued for employment reasons, by citizenship, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 29 September 2026.
No cap, stricter terms, 189,000 fewer aged 20 to 64
The rules as they stand on 27 September 2026
No yearly cap on permits since 1 January 2021. The employer asks the employment service for a labour market test, unless the job is on its shortage list.
The employment service backs a permit for residence and work only if the employer's full time staff from Croatia, the rest of the European Economic Area or Switzerland equal at least 20 percent of its staff from outside the EU (at least 10 percent in shortage jobs).
The police decide within 90 days of a complete application, the labour market test included, with 30 more days in complex cases.
A newly arrived holder may change employer after six months of work; the new employer needs its own labour market test.
After a year in the country, a renewal needs a basic Croatian exam, paid by the employer. Seasonal permits are exempt.
Sources: Narodne novine 133/2020 (Foreigners Act, articles 98 and 101) and 55/2026 of 27 May 2026 (articles 18, 19, 26, 32 and 70). Gazette text, retrieved 27 September 2026.
About 189,000 fewer people aged 20 to 64 by 2041
Eurostat's 2025 projection gives 2,237,186 in 2026 and 2,047,833 in 2041, a fall of 8.5 percent.
Source: Eurostat, proj_25np, EUROPOP2025 baseline and migration sensitivity tests, updated 11 June 2026; 2025 observed, demo_pjangroup, updated 25 September 2026; retrieved 27 September 2026.
Citizens of Croatia who left in 2024, down from 32,739 in 2022
Fewer Croatians leave than in 2022, but each year's departures still offset part of the arrivals.
Eurostat, migr_emi1ctz, retrieved 27 September 2026
Unemployment in 2025, against 6.0 percent across the EU
Down from 6.6 percent in 2019 and 7.5 percent in 2021.
Eurostat, une_rt_a, retrieved 27 September 2026
Permits for new employment, January to August 2026, ministry count
30.1 percent fewer than the 63,907 of the same months of 2025.
Ministry of the Interior, monthly statistics, August 2025 and 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026
About 33,100 permits in 2026, between 20,500 and 50,200
We expect about 33,100 first residence permits for work in 2026, between 20,500 and 50,200, as the ministry counted 30.1 percent fewer permits for new employment to 31 August. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number: the count is below 2025 and level with 2026. From 2027 the line holds 33,100, a stated assumption.
Permits in 2026, our estimate
between 20,500 and 50,200
Permits a year in 2031, held flat, a stated assumption
one line: the estimate of 2026 held
Direction of the rules and of the count
Permits in 2027: below 2025, level with 2026; the range is too wide for a yearly number
Held flat at 33,100 a year from 2027, a stated assumption
Permits issued to 2025, then our estimate with its range for 2026; for 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number, and the count is below 2025, level with 2026; from 2027 one line on a stated assumption. The estimate of 2026 carries the ministry's permits for new employment, January to August 2026, onto Eurostat's count at the ratio of 2025. Held flat keeps it: the count of 2026 is falling, and the demand of the falling working age, about 13,300 a year, lies below it. No peers' line is drawn: Croatia already issues 21.1 first residence permits for work a year per 1,000 people aged 20 to 64, above 4.7, the median of its peers (Bulgaria 3.4, Czechia 2.8, Hungary 8.5, Poland 14.4, Romania 5.5 and Slovakia 4.0).
Source: Werklist estimate from Eurostat migr_resfirst (reference years to 2025, updated 11 September 2026) and the Ministry of the Interior's monthly count of permits for new employment (January to August 2025 and 2026); the line from 2027: held flat, the estimate of 2026 held, as the ministry's count of 2026 is falling and the demand of the falling working age, about 13,300 a year, lies below it; retrieved 27 September 2026. Values rounded to three significant figures; the table gives the held flat line in a row of its own, in 2031, 2036 and 2041 only; for 2027 the Permits row gives the direction against 2026 (the count is below 2025); Low and High give the range of 2026.
Origins held at their 2025 shares, and the drivers
Each origin keeps its 2025 share: Nepal 21.7%, the Philippines 12.6%
Held at the shares of 2025: our method does not carry past changes in the shares forward. For Nepal the range in 2031 is 14.5 to 32.6 percent. The Philippine share doubled in 2025 only because the total fell: the count rose 3.7 percent, from 5,769 to 5,981. The other sourcing centres hold India 9.2 percent, Uzbekistan 3.9, Bangladesh 1.4, Indonesia 0.5 and Vietnam 0.3.
Source: Werklist estimate on Eurostat migr_resfirst by citizenship, updated 11 September 2026, retrieved 27 September 2026. Shares of each year's permits, to 2035, held at the shares of 2025.
Drivers of the estimate
The ministry's count of 2026 sets the estimate of 2026 and holds the line; the rest stand beside it.
8.5 percent fewer from 2026 to 2041; the demand it implies, about 13,300 a year, lies below the count.
The ministry's permits for new employment fell 30.1 percent to August 2026; after a fall the trend is not carried.
20,147 left and 13,290 returned, all ages.
170,723 permits for residence and work in 2025, against Eurostat's 47,382.
Against 4.7, the median of its six peers (page 7), and 4.9 across the EU.
44,646 to 31 August 2026 against 63,907 a year before (Ministry of the Interior).
Sources: Eurostat proj_25np, migr_emi1ctz and migr_imm1ctz; the Werklist country record, edition 2026.1; Ministry of the Interior, mup.gov.hr, 2025 and August 2026; retrieved 27 September 2026.
What could change this
Each of these could move the numbers on this page and the one before. The first is already in our line.
The pace of 2026
The ministry counted 44,646 permits for new employment from January to August 2026, 30.1 percent fewer than a year earlier. Our estimate of 2026 starts from that pace and the line does not rise; a stronger autumn would lift it.
The language exam from June 2027
From 4 June 2027 a renewal after a year needs a basic Croatian exam, paid by the employer. It is law, in Narodne novine 55/2026, and is not in our estimate.
The minimum wage
The minimum wage is 1,050 euro gross a month in 2026, up from 970 in 2025; both levels were set in October of the year before. A higher floor raises the cost of each hire.
How to read this report
What a first residence permit for work is
Eurostat's first residence permits for employment, valid three months or more, without renewals: in Croatia first permits for residence and work under the Foreigners Act, and EU Blue Cards. The ministry also issues seasonal permits, 20,083 in 2025, and renewals, 70,275; neither is in this count.
The range and the line
Our estimate gives a yearly number with its range for 2026 only. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number, so we give only the direction. From 2027 one line, on a stated assumption: 2026 held flat. Croatia already issues more per 1,000 than its peers, so no peers' line is drawn. Observed numbers are solid, estimates dashed.
How the estimate is made
We carry the ministry's January to August 2026 pace of permits for new employment, 30.1 percent below 2025, to the full year and onto Eurostat's count: about 33,100, between 20,500 and 50,200. The line holds it flat: the trend is not carried after a fall, and the demand of the falling working age, about 13,300 a year, lies below the count.
Numbers, dates and words
Past counts are printed exactly; estimates are rounded to three significant figures. The comparisons with Bulgaria and the peers are our arithmetic on Eurostat data. Permits are counted, not people; people appear only where we speak of the population.
Sources
Every source retrieved 27 September 2026; the permits by citizenship over the years on 29 September 2026.
- Eurostat, migr_resfirst, first residence permits by reason, length of validity and citizenship, reference years 2019 to 2025, updated 11 September 2026. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ migr_resfirst - Eurostat, demo_gind, demo_pjangroup and demo_pjanbroad, population, births, deaths and age. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - Eurostat, migr_imm1ctz and migr_emi1ctz, immigration and emigration by citizenship. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - Eurostat, proj_25np, EUROPOP2025 population projection, baseline and migration sensitivity tests, updated 11 June 2026. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser/ view/ proj_25np - Eurostat, nama_10_gdp, nama_10_pc, tec00114 and tec00115, GDP, GDP per head and growth. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - Eurostat, lfsi_emp_a and une_rt_a, employment and unemployment. ec.europa.eu/
eurostat/ databrowser - International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook, April 2026, real GDP growth. imf.org/
external/ datamapper - Narodne novine, Croatia, Foreigners Act 133/2020 of 2 December 2020 and amending act 55/2026 of 27 May 2026. narodne-novine.nn.hr
- Narodne novine, Croatia, minimum wage regulations 124/2024 and 132/2025. narodne-novine.nn.hr
- Ministry of the Interior of Croatia, monthly statistics of permits for residence and work, full years 2024 and 2025, and January to August 2025 and 2026. mup.gov.hr
- Labour Migration and Labour Mobility Act, Bulgaria, article 7(1), consolidated text, as amended by State Gazette 52 of 2025. lex.bg/
bg/ laws/ ldoc/ 2136803084 - Ministry of Labour and Social Policy, Bulgaria, draft law, consultation 12064, January 2026. strategy.bg/
bg/ public-consultations/ 12064
Photographs and flags
Pexels: Zagreb at night, Damir K (cover); Dubrovnik at sunset, Diego F. Parra (page 3); port cranes, Enes Beydilli; Zagreb rooftops, Lajos Kristóf Kántor; tower cranes, Airam Dato-on; the harbour of Split, Melvin Silva; the Adriatic coast at sunset, Nikola Kojević (back cover). Flags: circle-flags by HatScripts, MIT licence.
What this report answers
How many first residence permits for work has Croatia issued each year since 2019?
47,382 in 2025, 44.6% fewer than the 85,574 of 2024, the peak, and close to the 46,587 of 2019. Permits nearly tripled from 2021 to 2024.
Which countries do the new hires come from, and which are growing?
Nepal leads with 10,300 permits in 2025, 21.7%, ahead of Bosnia and Herzegovina with 6,465 and Serbia with 6,358. Of the ten largest origins only the Philippines grew, to 5,981; Bangladesh fell from 9,928 to 651.
How does Croatia compare with its neighbours per resident?
21.1 first residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, six times Bulgaria's 3.4 and four times the EU's 4.9, after a peak of 38.2 in 2024. Most of them run 6 to 11 months.
Which rules apply to employers who hire from abroad?
No yearly cap since 2021, but a labour market test unless the job is on the shortage list. Since June 2026 the employer's staff from Croatia, the rest of the European Economic Area or Switzerland must equal at least 20% of its staff from outside the EU, and the police decide within 90 days.
How is the working age population changing?
Eurostat projects 2,237,186 people aged 20 to 64 in 2026 and 2,047,833 in 2041: about 189,000 fewer, a fall of 8.5 percent.
How many first residence permits for work do we expect Croatia to issue in 2026, and what comes after?
About 33,100 in 2026, between 20,500 and 50,200, as the ministry counted 30.1 percent fewer permits for new employment to 31 August. For 2027 the count is below 2025 and level with 2026. From 2027 the line holds 33,100 a year, a stated assumption, not a forecast.
The full report answers each question with its figures, charts and sources. Request the full report