Workforce Migration Report 2026: Bulgaria

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Sofia at dusk, with Vitosha behind the city
Workforce Migration Report 2026
Bulgaria
12,596
First residence permits for work issued in 2025

Contents

In brief

Port cranes

The country

  1. 3

    6.4 million people, richer and older every year

  2. 4

    Fewer births, more arrivals, an older population

 Central Sofia

Where the market is now

  1. 5

    Residence permits for work have grown fivefold since 2019

  2. 6

    Croatia peaked in 2024, Bulgaria is still climbing

  3. 7

    Uzbekistan leads, and Nepal is now second

  4. 8

    Seven sourcing centres received 63.2% of permits in 2025

  5. 9

    Tighter limits, 563,000 fewer people aged 20 to 64 by 2041

 Tower cranes

The outlook

  1. 10

    About 13,900 permits in 2026, between 8,600 and 21,100

  2. 11

    Origins held at their 2025 shares, and the drivers

  3. 11

    What could change this

 Blocks in Sofia

Method and sources

  1. 12

    How to read this report

  2. 12

    Sources, photographs and flags

Cover: Sofia at dusk, with Vitosha behind the city. Photograph by Alex Stoev, Pexels.

Bulgaria issues few first residence permits for work for its size, and the number is rising fast: 12,596 in 2025, 45.6 percent more than in 2024. That is 3.4 for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64, against 4.9 across the EU. On the Employment Agency's count the market is almost four times larger: 49,179 permits, opinions and registrations, seasonal and short term jobs included. The seven sourcing centres of Werklist received 63.2 percent. The rules tightened in June 2025, and the count still rose. Our estimate is about 13,900 this year; for 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number, and the direction is rising. In 2031 the count held flat gives 12,600 a year, the working age scenario 23,500 and growth carried forward 26,900, both scenarios, not forecasts.

Observed

First residence permits for work, 2025

12,596
Our estimate

Permits in 2026, 8,600 to 21,100

13,900
Scenario, not a forecast

Permits a year in 2031, working age scenario; held flat 12,600

23,500
Projection of the source

Fewer aged 20 to 64 by 2041

563,000

6.4 million people, richer and older every year

Bulgaria has 6.4 million people, 606,483 fewer than in 2015, because deaths outnumber births about two to one. Since 2020 more people arrive than leave. The economy has grown faster than the EU's for five years, yet output per head is still 43 percent of the EU average, and the number of people aged 20 to 64 falls every year.

Plovdiv at sunset

People living in Bulgaria on 1 January 2026

6,423,207

8.6 percent fewer than in 2015, and 1.4 percent of the EU's 452.0 million. The median age was 47.3 years in 2025, against 44.9 in the EU.

GDP in 2025, billion euro at current prices

116.0

0.6 percent of the EU economy.

GDP per head in 2025

18,060euro

43 percent of the EU average of 41,700 euro. Counting lower prices at home, 68 percent, up from 49 percent in 2015.

Real growth in 2025

3.1%

Against 1.4 percent across the EU. Over 2021 to 2025 the economy grew 21.7 percent in all, the EU 13.7 percent (our estimate from the yearly rates).

People aged 20 to 64 in work, 2025

77.0%

Against 76.1 percent across the EU.

Schengen and the euro

1 January 2025Full member of Schengen: land border checks end.
1 January 2026The euro replaces the lev, at 1.95583 lev per euro.

Sources: Eurostat, demo_gind (population, updated 21 July 2026), nama_10_gdp and nama_10_pc (GDP, updated 21 September 2026), tec00114 (price adjusted GDP per head, updated 9 July 2026), tec00115 (growth), lfsi_emp_a (employment), demo_pjanind (median age); Council of the European Union, 12 December 2024 and 8 July 2025; European Central Bank, 1 January 2026. All retrieved 27 September 2026. Figures for 2025 GDP, GDP per head and growth, the EU population in 2026 and the EU median age are provisional.

Fewer births, more arrivals, an older population

Deaths outnumber births by two to one, and since 2020 arrivals fill only part of the gap

In 2025, 99,479 people died and 50,241 were born. Net migration added 35,085, so the population still fell by 14,153.

Births minus deathsNet migration
−80,000−40,0000+40,0002019202020212022202320242025Births minus deathsNet migrationChange in the populationMoved inMoved out−46,545−48,357−94,90237,92939,941−65,649+28,491−37,15837,364−90,317+40,684−49,63339,46126,755−62,218+27,444−34,77440,61913,175−43,809+41,580−2,22956,80715,227−47,308+39,187−8,12152,18913,002−49,238+35,085−14,153

Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (updated 21 July 2026), migr_imm1ctz and migr_emi1ctz (moves of a year or more, updated 29 May and 22 September 2026), retrieved 27 September 2026. Net migration includes Eurostat's statistical adjustment, so before 2022 it differs from moves in minus moves out. Moves in for 2019 and 2020 are provisional. Moves for 2025 are not yet published; moves out in 2020 break with the years around them and are left out.

About 5.76 million people by 2041 on Eurostat's projection

Observed to 2026, then Eurostat's 2025 projection in the lighter line.

5.5 million6.0 million6.5 million7.0 millionEurostat's projection7.03 million in 20156.42 million in 20265.76 million in 20415.91 million, more migration5.62 million, less migration201520202026203120362041

Source: Eurostat, demo_gind (observed, updated 21 July 2026) and proj_25np (EUROPOP2025 baseline and migration tests, updated 11 June 2026), retrieved 27 September 2026.

The share aged 65 and over rises to 28%

0 to 1415 to 6465 and over
2025, observed14.0%62.0%24.0%2041, Eurostat's projection13.6%58.2%28.2%

Source: Eurostat, demo_pjanbroad (2025) and proj_25np (2041), retrieved 27 September 2026.

GDP keeps growing, more slowly: 116.0 billion euro in 2025

Billion euro, 2025 pricesIMF forecast
80100120140116.0 in 2025135.7 in 203120172.7%20193.8%20217.8%20231.7%20253.1%20272.5%20292.6%20312.6%

Real growth under each year. Sources: Eurostat, nama_10_gdp (2025 provisional); IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026; Werklist calculation; retrieved 27 September 2026.

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What this report answers

  • How many first residence permits for work has Bulgaria issued each year since 2019?

    12,596 in 2025, up from 8,653 in 2024 and 2,414 in 2019: five times as many in six years, and at least a third more every year since 2022.

  • Which countries do the new hires come from, and which of them are growing?

    Uzbekistan leads with 29.5% of the permits of 2025 and Nepal is second with 17.3%. Permits for citizens of Uzbekistan doubled in 2025 and those for Nepal nearly doubled, while Türkiye and Russia fell.

  • How long do the permits run?

    Nine in ten permits issued in 2025 (90.4%) run for a year or more, up from 43.2% in 2019.

  • How does Bulgaria compare with Croatia?

    In 2025 Bulgaria issued 3.4 first residence permits for work for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64, against 21.1 in Croatia and 4.9 across the EU. Croatia peaked at 38.2 in 2024; Bulgaria is still climbing.

  • How many people from outside the EU may one employer hire?

    Up to 20% of the employer's average headcount, or 35% for a small or medium firm, and since June 2025 every such hire of the past 12 months counts towards the limit.

  • Why is the working age population shrinking, and how much of the gap does migration fill?

    Deaths outnumber births about two to one: in 2025, 99,479 people died and 50,241 were born, and net migration of 35,085 filled only part of the gap. Eurostat projects about 563,000 fewer people aged 20 to 64 by 2041.

  • How many first residence permits for work do we expect Bulgaria to issue in 2026, and what comes after?

    About 13,900 in 2026, between 8,600 and 21,100. For 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is rising. In 2031 the count held flat, a stated assumption, gives 12,600 a year; the working age scenario gives 23,500 and growth carried forward 26,900, scenarios, not forecasts.

  • What counts as a first residence permit for work, and what is left out?

    Eurostat's first residence permits for employment, valid three months or more: single permits, EU Blue Cards, intra corporate transfers and seasonal work over 90 days. Renewals and seasonal jobs of up to 90 days are left out.

The full report answers each question with its figures, charts and sources. Request the full report