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Contents
In brief
The country
- 3
3.4 million people, a fifth of EU output per head
- 4
Deaths outnumber births, and the population shrinks
Where the market is now
- 5
Permits more than doubled since 2019 on published counts
- 6
3.6 per 1,000, below the EU’s 4.9
- 7
Three of the seven sourcing centres take 35.9%
- 8
India up, Türkiye and Serbia level
- 9
Faster decisions, 398,000 fewer people of working age by 2041
The outlook
- 10
About 7,410 permits in 2026, between 4,580 and 11,200
- 11
34,979 first EU residence permits for citizens in 2025
- 11
What could change this
Method and sources
- 12
How to read this report
- 12
Sources, photographs and flags
Cover: Sarajevo at dusk, with the mountains behind the city. Photograph by Amel Uzunovic, Pexels.
Bosnia and Herzegovina is a small market with a yearly quota. Its employment services issued 6,702 work permits in 2025, 4,584 of them new; 4,456 fell inside the quota and 2,246 outside it. The Council of Ministers set the 2026 quota at 7,427 places on 16 December 2025. The Council of Ministers reports 15.6 percent more permits than in 2024, but its 2024 figure is net of revoked permits: new permits fell from 4,901 to 4,584. That is 3.6 work permits for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64, against 4.9 first residence permits for work across the EU. From 2027 the Federation drops the register check for listed shortage occupations. People aged 15 to 64 fall by a fifth by 2041. Our estimate is about 7,410 permits in 2026, inside and outside the quota; from 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number, and the direction is rising. In 2031 the count held flat, a stated assumption, gives 6,700 a year; the demand anchor, a scenario, gives 12,000.
Work permits issued in 2025, new and extended
Permits in 2026, 4,580 to 11,200
Permits a year in 2031, the direction: the range is too wide for a yearly number; held flat 6,700
Fewer people aged 15 to 64 in 2041 than in 2026
3.4 million people, a fifth of EU output per head
Bosnia and Herzegovina has 3.4 million people, 119,848 fewer than in 2016. Deaths outnumber births by about 10,000 a year, and net migration was close to zero in 2024. In 2024 output per head was 20 percent of the EU average, 37 percent counting lower prices. The World Bank projects 20 percent fewer people aged 15 to 64 by 2041.
People living in Bosnia and Herzegovina on 1 January 2026
3.4 percent fewer than in 2016. People aged 65 and over were 22.9 percent of the population in 2025.
GDP in 2025, billion euro at current prices
At current prices and exchange rates.
GDP per head in 2024
20 percent of the EU average of 40,110 euro. Counting lower prices at home, 37 percent, up from 31 percent in 2015.
Real growth in 2025
Against 1.4 percent across the EU. Over 2021 to 2025 the economy grew 20.3 percent in all, the EU 13.7 percent (our estimate from the yearly rates).
People aged 20 to 64 in work, 2025
Against 76.1 percent across the EU.
The road to the EU
Sources: Eurostat, demo_gind (population, updated 21 July 2026), nama_10_gdp and nama_10_pc (GDP, updated 21 September 2026), tec00114 (price adjusted GDP per head), tec00115 (growth), lfsi_emp_a (employment); World Bank, population estimates (age, 2025). All retrieved 27 September 2026. Figures for 2025 GDP and growth are provisional; GDP per head is for 2024, the latest year published. Key dates: European Council conclusions of 15 December 2022 and 21 and 22 March 2024, on consilium.europa.eu, retrieved 27 September 2026.
India
Nepal
Türkiye
Serbia
Bangladesh
China
Bosnia and HerzegovinaWhat this report answers
How many work permits has Bosnia and Herzegovina issued each year since 2019?
6,702 work permits in 2025, more than twice the 3,183 of 2019: 4,584 new permits and 2,118 extensions. The 2024 figure of 5,798 is net of revoked permits, so the two years are not on one definition.
Which countries do the new hires come from, and which are growing?
India now leads with 933 permits in 2025, up from 660, ahead of Nepal with 831 and Türkiye with 784. Three of the seven sourcing centres, Nepal, India and Bangladesh, took 35.9%, up from 32.8%, while Türkiye and Serbia held level.
How does Bosnia and Herzegovina compare with its neighbours per resident?
3.6 work permits for every 1,000 residents aged 20 to 64 in 2025, extensions included, up from 1.6 in 2019 and below the EU's 4.9 first residence permits for work. On people aged 15 to 64 the count gives 3.32, half the 6.63 median of Albania, North Macedonia, Serbia and Kosovo.
Which rules apply to employers who hire from abroad?
A yearly quota, 7,427 permits for 2026. A permit is for one person, one job and one employer and runs for a year; in the Federation a cantonal service decides within 30 days, and from 2027 listed shortage occupations skip the register check.
How is the working age population changing?
The World Bank projects 1,986,651 people aged 15 to 64 in 2026 and 1,588,898 in 2041: about 398,000 fewer, a fall of 20.0 percent.
How many work permits do we expect Bosnia and Herzegovina to issue in 2026, and what comes after?
About 7,410 in 2026, between 4,580 and 11,200, inside and outside the quota. From 2027 the range is too wide for a yearly number; the direction is rising. In 2031 the count held flat, a stated assumption, gives 6,700 a year; the demand anchor, a scenario, gives 12,000.
The full report answers each question with its figures, charts and sources. Request the full report